Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
629 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 559 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Potential for strong-severe storms and heavy rainfall/flooding through
  Sunday morning.

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected into next
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A few strong to severe storms continue across parts of central and
southern Oklahoma early this morning. A weak surface low across
southeast New Mexico and inverted surface trough/cold front across
northwest Oklahoma will gradually shift south and east across the
area overnight into Sunday morning. In addition an outflow boundary
from convection has moved south of the Red River. There remains some
chance of severe storms mainly across southern Oklahoma into north
Texas through the morning hours.

Additional elevated showers and storms are expected to develop late
tonight into Sunday morning farther north across central and
northern Oklahoma with the aid of strong low level jet and
isentropic assent. This activity will likely continue through the
morning and into the afternoon hours before gradually shifting south
late in the day as upper trough axis continue to move southeast into
the central and southern Plains. This additional rainfall could also
result in some isolated areas of flooding, especially in urban areas.

Otherwise, cloudy, breezy and cooler today with highs in the
afternoon only climbing into the upper 60s and low to mid 70s across
much of the area. Still may see a few 80s in our western north
Texas counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The aforementioned trough axis will continue to push southeast with
some lingering showers and storms across southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas through the first half of the night. As the
trough moves through, skies will clear from northwest to southeast.
Light winds and a drier airmass will allow temperatures to drop to
near 40 degrees in far northwest Oklahoma with 50s along and south
of I-44.

Pleasant conditions expected Monday with sunny skies, light winds
and temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Upper
heights begin to rise as upper ridge begins to build out into the
Plains from the southwest bringing much warmer temperatures for
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Upper ridge will remain in control through Thursday before a couple
of upper shortwaves break it down. In advance of the initial wave,
lee troughing will result in increasing south winds Wednesday night
and Thursday. The gusty south winds will combine with hot
temperatures and low afternoon humidity to result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma
Thursday afternoon.

The strong, gusty south winds will continue both Friday into
Saturday with only minimal rain chances and hot afternoon
temperatures. Fire weather conditions will also remain elevated
across far western and northwestern Oklahoma where vegetation
remains in a transition phase due to lack of precipitation. A
stronger longwave trough moves through the central part of the
country by Saturday dragging a cold front into the area, which may
bring temperatures down at least a few degrees and also bring a
chance of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers & thunderstorms will continue forming along to ahead of a
cold front currently stretched across northern Oklahoma. Have
TEMPO groups for TSRA at all of our terminals through 21Z with
periods of convection and showers with lowering ceilings and
reduced visibilities in rain will result in many of our terminals
degrading to at least an MVFR category for some periods through
the morning with a few of them lowering to an IFR category in very
low stratus. Much of this convective shower activity may be along
and south of the I-40 corridor where the surface boundary/cold
front will be. There is a north wind shift behind the cold front
although rather diffuse and weak as storm outflow may keep surface
winds variable and gusty as times. Expecting rain/storm activity
to be near and south of the Red River after 00Z as most of our
terminals will start drying out with light northerly winds
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  50  76  54 / 100  10   0   0
Hobart OK         72  49  80  54 /  80  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78  54  80  55 /  80  30   0   0
Gage OK           68  41  79  53 /  80   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  46  77  52 /  60   0   0   0
Durant OK         77  59  77  55 /  90  70  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
629 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

OKZ024-025-101200-
Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-
629 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Oklahoma and east central Canadian Counties through 700 AM CDT...

At 629 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northwestern Oklahoma City, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Oklahoma City, Edmond, Yukon, Warr Acres, The Village,
Piedmont, Nichols Hills, and Downtown Edmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 9736 3554 9773 3566 9775 3573 9748
      3572 9742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 248DEG 13KT 3561 9757

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

OKZ023-027-101215-
Grady OK-Caddo OK-
640 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Grady
and east central Caddo Counties through 715 AM CDT...

At 640 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Lake Chickasha, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Minco, Amber, Pocasset, and Lake Chickasha.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 9799 3535 9796 3535 9795 3537 9795
      3538 9794 3536 9793 3535 9790 3516 9785
      3515 9820 3526 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 1140Z 247DEG 13KT 3520 9809

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
653 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

OKZ041-042-047-101230-
Johnston OK-Pontotoc OK-Murray OK-
653 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Johnston, southwestern Pontotoc and northeastern Murray Counties
through 730 AM CDT...

At 653 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roff, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sulphur, Roff, Fitzhugh, Hickory, Scullin, and Fittstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 9665 3453 9700 3464 9696 3464 9693
      3465 9690 3469 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1153Z 270DEG 17KT 3460 9688

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale