Small Craft Advisory 69, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time. Updated for the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The next potential window for strong to severe thunderstorms
will be Sunday late afternoon and evening.

2) Minor coastal flooding chances during the evening/nighttime
high tide cycles this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
For Sunday, a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes region
will extend a pair of shortwave troughs toward the East Coast.
The first shortwave will support the development of a low
pressure system along the coast, which will give the area its
next round of shower and storm activity. The second shortwave
will support a surface cold front on Sunday night that will end
the storm threat. The environment ahead of these features will
be more marginal than the last several days as temperatures will
only just get to 90 degrees and surface dew points will only
reach the mid 60s, so the instability will be limited. However,
this setup could allow for more upper level support to organize
storms. SPC has the western portion of the area in a slight risk
and the eastern half in a marginal risk of severe storms, with
the primary threat being damaging wind gusts.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another round of high tide flooding is expected across coastal
Fairfield CT and the south shore back bays of Nassau NY this
evening. The combination of a new moon plus surge/anomaly near
a foot will once again produce water levels at or just above
minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening/nighttime
high tide cycle.

With an increasing onshore flow Sunday and tide levels coming
up another tenth or two, a more widespread minor coastal flood
event is possible Sunday night and coastal flood advisories may
be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with high pressure overhead. Local sea breezes may impact
coastal terminals this afternoon.

W winds will gradually back to the SW-S at coastal sites into
this afternoon. A few gusts 15-20 kt are possible at the
coastal terminals--more occassional than frequent. Seabreeze is
forecast at KJFK between about 2300 - 0100Z. Light SW winds
tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts up to 15-20 kt possible into the afternoon.

Timing of winds backing to the SW-S at KJFK could vary by 1-3
hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
late afternoon and evening with MVFR or lower possible at times.
S-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light flow from the NW less than 15 kts is expected
through tonight with sub-SCA conditions expected for all waters.

There is potential for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday
into Sunday night with increasing southerly flow ahead of a
cold front. This will likely be marginal and mainly for the
ocean waters, with 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft seas.

Any near SCA conditions fall below criteria on Sunday night and
sub-SCA conditions persist through at least the middle of the
week.

Rip Currents...

The rip current risk overall will be low today with a west to
northwest wind generally up to 10 kt and a lingering 2 ft
southerly swell. By Sunday, the rip current risk climbs to
moderate for the Suffolk beaches, with a high risk developing
during the afternoon for the NYC and Nassau beaches, mainly due
to an increasing S wind up to around 15 kt. A high risk may
develop very late in the day for the Suffolk beaches as well.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 13:
KEWR: 74/2005
KBDR: 71/2017
KNYC: 77/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 72/2017
KISP: 70/1969

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DW/MW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
252 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-140700-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
252 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385-140700-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
252 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.