Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
435 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added in enhanced wording for thunderstorm attributes into today
with possible heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail with some
thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms through today with low
pressure and cold front moving through. Some thunderstorms
could be strong with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

2) Possible lingering showers Monday into early Monday evening.
Otherwise mainly dry with high pressure eventually building back
in Monday night into midweek.

3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Heights lowering in mid levels as a closed low moves eastward.
This will introduce colder temperatures aloft and help keep up
convective chances.

Ahead of a wave of low pressure, low level environment will
become more unstable. CAMs depict convection developing more
rapidly this morning especially with diurnal heating. The focus
seems to be the first half of the day as CAMs really start
depleting convective coverage late afternoon into the evening.

This will be a high shear, low CAPE environment so there is
potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to even severe.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Threats with
thunderstorms will be heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail.
There is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail. The
thunderstorms are expected to be moving fast enough with the
shear to mitigate flooding potential. However, minor flooding
will still be a possibility with the thunderstorms, especially
for low lying, urban and poor drainage areas.

Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values through
today.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The closed low in the mid levels will continue slowly moving
east tonight through Monday and will then slowly move farther
northeast. The heights continue to lower tonight through Monday
and then will start to rise Monday night. National blend of
model dataset keeps dry conditions but CAMs indicate otherwise
for Monday with diurnal instability. Would expect isolated to
widely scattered showers on Monday with a slight chance of
thunderstorms as well. Manually put this in the forecast
because national blend of models is not reflecting this
potential in its forecast.

Otherwise, mainly dry conditions tonight through Monday. A
higher confidence of dry conditions for the entire area Monday
night through midweek with high pressure building in from the
west. Aloft, the height rises continue and the pattern
transitions from a trough to quasi-zonal.

Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values tonight
through midweek.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Model guidance continues to show an upper level trough pushing
southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. At the
surface, areas of low pressure approach from the west. This will
be associated with an approaching frontal system.

The forecast has increasing chances of showers Thursday, with
showers becoming likely Thursday night for most locations. The
forecast showers continue into Friday. There will be possible
thunderstorms as well but those probabilities will be less than
the showers.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front
for mid to late evening.

Primarily MVFR through early this morning. IFR becomes increasingly
likely into the morning push, although some terminals will remain
MVFR through the remainder of the morning. A line of showers with
embedded thunder approaching KEWR and KTEB towers with impact until
about 1030z with TEMPO group for TSRA at these terminals. PROB30
groups for TSRA at most terminals for the mid to late morning until
18-19z. All terminals eventually improve back to VFR this afternoon.

Winds shift briefly SE to S this morning, then SW by around noontime
for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day.
Gusts up to 20kt Sunday afternoon are possible.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief IFR may occur for the morning push with amendments possible for
TSRA for the next few hours and later this morning as well.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: VFR. Light winds.

Monday through Wednesday: VFR. WSW gusts around 20kt on Monday
afternoon.

Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and PM -shra.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain
below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast
period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and
Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-240815-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385-240815-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.