Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 8pm tonight for NE
NJ as well as Orange and Rockland Counties. The Flood Watch has
been expanded eastward to include eastern Suffolk County and
New London County. The Rip Current Statement has been extended
through Wednesday for today for all ocean beaches.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into Wednesday
bring the potential for life threatening flash flooding. Severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will also be possible
west of the Hudson River this afternoon into early evening.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents today and Wednesday.
(See Marine section below for discussion)

3) Potential for minor coastal flooding mid to late week with a
coastal low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A broad area of low pressure with a triple point passes through the
forecast area tonight with support from a nearby upper low to our
north. Upward forcing from both features plus synoptic scale lift
from developing upper divergence combine with high moisture content.
This alone poses a threat of heavy rainfall with flash flooding, and
the threat will be enhanced by a wind profile through the mid levels
that supports back-building of and training of storm cells. Given
yesterday's rainfall, there is also some concern for river flooding.
River forecast points are not expected to go into flood, however a
couple are forecast to get pretty close to minor flooding
thresholds.

The period when flooding impacts are most likely is from mid
afternoon through tonight. Impacts for the easternmost zones are
most likely tonight into Wednesday morning. With the surface low
nearby and the upper low overhead, the flooding threat continues
through the daytime Wednesday. The Flood Watch has remained
unchanged regarding its end time of 8pm Wednesday as confidence in
shortening its duration is not high enough - antecedent rainfall
plus slow moving cell potential with lingering sufficient moisture
content could lead to additional flash flooding. After collaboration
with WFO BOX, have decided to include New London (and eastern
Suffolk) Counties in the Flood Watch. CAMS suggest a slowing eastern
progression of cells with a better chance of cell training tonight
into Wednesday morning. The WPC maintains a moderate risk (level
3/4) for portions of the area through tonight with a slight risk
elsewhere, then a marginal to slight risk for Wednesday.

In general, an average of 3 to 5 inches is expected for portions of
northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and southwestern CT. Isolated
higher amounts are expected, with the latest HREF PMM showing a max
5-7 in the Lower Hudson Valley into NE NJ.

For the rest of the area, an average of 2 to 3 inches is forecast,
with isolated higher amounts possible. Peak hourly rainfall rates up
to 2 to 3 inches per hour are still anticipated. This is also
focused more on NE NJ into the Lower Hudson Valley, but can not be
ruled out anywhere in the area.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to become severe, mainly
for portions of northeast NJ into the Lower Hudson valley and NYC
metro. This is shown in SPC's latest Day 1 Convective Outlook. Shear
remains fairly weak, but decent instability could allow for an
isolated damaging wind threat with some collapsing storms. The
threat appears to highest from mid-afternoon through early evening
today when instability will be at its highest. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect through 8pm tonight for NE NJ as well as Orange
and Rockland Counties.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
See Marine section for details on rip current risk.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A full moon occurs Wednesday morning and an onshore flow will be
preceding it. By the time the Wednesday evening high tide cycle
arrives, winds will be offshore or at least weakening in the process
of shifting offshore. This should offset or at least not
significantly contribute to tidal piling with astronomical high
tides. Therefore, not anticipating a high enough threat of minor
coastal flooding for an advisory. Perhaps a statement for isolated
minor flooding could be needed for the south shore back bay
locations of southern Nassau and Queens, but confidence in levels
touching minor are not high enough at this time for a statement
issuance.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR conditions expected to overspread the terminals. MVFR or
lower conditions likely for all terminals for the remainder of
the TAF period, though some improvement to VFR possible toward
Wednesday late afternoon. IFR/LIFR expected tonight for much of
the area, perhaps with the exception of low- end MVFR categories
for the NYC terminals. Lower conditions (IFR/LIFR) may be brief
and associated with heavy rain and/or TSRA.

SHRA and TSRA are moving into the area from the wester and will
begin to become more widespread through the afternoon and
evening. A more widespread area of convection with +SHRA/+TSRA
gradually works east over the terminals late afternoon into the
evening. Any thunderstorm could produce wind gusts above 40 kt.
The SHRA/TSRA likely persist into tonight and Wednesday morning,
possibly becoming heavy at times. The NYC terminals may have
more in the way of scattered showers with an isolated TSRA
overnight with eastern terminals, KBDR, KISP, KGON seeing a more
+SHRA or +TSRA. Scattered showered and TSRA remain possible on
Wednesday, though uncertainty remains high regarding coverage
and timing of any SHRA/TSRA.

Winds will be initially S/SW under 10 kt becoming more S/SE
into the afternoon. S/SE gusts around 20-30 kt possible into
this afternoon into the evening. Winds may become more variable
late tonight and through Wednesday as the low passes overhead.
Wind direction and timing of changes on Wednesday are
particularly low confidence.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of SHRA/TSRA onsets could be off by a couple of hours,
possibly occurring a few hours later than forecast. Any
thunderstorm could produce wind gusts above 40 kt, especially
through this evening.

Amendments likely for changing flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday: Mostly MVFR improving to VFR by the afternoon
likely with showers. Thunderstorms and brief MVFR or lower
possible.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Showers possible and a slight
chance of a thunderstorm. N-NW wind G15-20kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A S/SE flow increases today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
all waters. The flow peaks tonight with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Ocean
seas are expected to build to 5 to 6 feet. SCA gusts still
anticipated for the eastern waters Wednesday morning, although there
is a chance that the SCA for central and eastern LI Sound and the
eastern bays could be canceled at some point during the morning.
Have extended the SCA on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet as
seas will be slow to subside with a lingering swell in spite of
lowering winds. Might even need to eventually extend the advisory
here into the evening if the swell lingers longer than anticipated.
Sub SCA conditions then follow for the rest of the forecast period.

Rip Currents...

The rip current risk for the rest of the day remains high with a
strengthening S/SE flow and building swell.

The high rip current risk continues through Wednesday as well due to
lingering swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for CTZ005>007-009>011.
     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening for CTZ008-012.
NY...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NYZ067>075-078-080-
     176>179.
     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening for NYZ079-081.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338-
     345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353.

&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069-291000-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Rockland-
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>007-009>011-NYZ068-070>074-078-176-177-291000-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Putnam-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-291000-
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ075-080-178-179-291000-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwest Suffolk-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ081-291000-
Southeast Suffolk-
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385-291000-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1201 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Westwood                40.99N 74.04W
07/27/2026                   Bergen             NJ   Trained Spotter

            Tree down on an home, Westwood Blvd.
            Westwood, N.J. Tree down at Irvington and
            Broadway Westwood NJ, blocking NJ transit
            tracks. Tree down at Hopper and Main St.
            Westwood, NJ.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1207 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Hail             1 SE Chestnut Ridge     41.07N 74.04W
07/27/2026  M1.00 Inch       Rockland           NY   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NYZ067-281915-
Orange NY-
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 233 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near High Point, or near Montague, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Middletown, Port Jervis, Walden, Howells, Montgomery, Cuddebackville,
Otisville, Huguenot, Unionville, Scotchtown, Deerpark, Mechanicstown,
Westtown, Slate Hill, and Pine Bush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 7476 4150 7448 4157 7442 4160 7435
      4160 7433 4163 7426 4163 7425 4160 7425
      4159 7413 4161 7413 4161 7410 4127 7451
      4136 7469 4137 7469 4139 7471 4140 7474
      4143 7474 4143 7476 4146 7475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 202DEG 29KT 4128 7471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DBR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
240 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NJZ002-004-103-105-NYZ067-069-281945-
Western Bergen NJ-Western Passaic NJ-Western Essex NJ-
Eastern Passaic NJ-Rockland NY-Orange NY-
240 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PASSAIC...NORTHWESTERN BERGEN...
NORTH CENTRAL ESSEX...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 240 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Hamburg, or 10 miles west of West Milford, moving
north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wayne, West Milford, Monsey, Ramsey, Ringwood, Pompton Lakes,
Suffern, Monroe, Warwick, Goshen, Sloatsburg, Bloomingdale,
Fairfield, Chester, and Greenwood Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northeastern New Jersey...and southeastern New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 7427 4128 7395 4083 7426 4088 7434
      4091 7433 4090 7427 4093 7429 4097 7428
      4098 7430 4100 7430 4101 7439 4103 7442
      4102 7443 4104 7443 4105 7445 4104 7450
      4107 7449 4109 7450 4120 7437 4127 7451
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 193DEG 27KT 4116 7459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DBR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NJZ004-104>108-282000-
Eastern Union NJ-Eastern Essex NJ-Western Union NJ-Western Essex NJ-
Eastern Bergen NJ-Eastern Passaic NJ-
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN PASSAIC...UNION...SOUTH
CENTRAL BERGEN AND ESSEX COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 316 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Florham Park, or near Millburn, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paterson, Passaic, Wayne, Plainfield, Bloomfield, Hackensack, Orange,
Summit, Lyndhurst, Millburn, Rutherford, Caldwell, Hawthorne, Clark,
and Fairfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northeastern New Jersey.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 7445 4067 7440 4065 7445 4067 7446
      4075 7436 4076 7438 4079 7437 4082 7433
      4091 7430 4090 7427 4092 7429 4099 7424
      4095 7414 4089 7413 4093 7407 4090 7400
      4078 7413 4078 7415 4074 7417 4061 7430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 206DEG 40KT 4077 7437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DBR