Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
240 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued area-wide through
8PM this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New
Jersey as hot weather continues through this afternoon.

2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening, followed by lingering showers tonight into
early Thursday.

3) Unsettled with periods of showers expected for the upcoming
holiday weekend along with a much cooler airmass over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
No changes were made to the heat advisory for the NYC metro and NE
NJ which remains in effect until 8pm.

Temperatures and heat indices have already warmed into the 90s with
ample sunshine. Cloud cover will increase ahead of a cold front this
afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms forecasted.
This will bring an end to the heat, likely earlier than the 8pm end
time of the Heat Advisory.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front, currently draped across Central NY into
central/western PA, will move across the region this afternoon and
evening. The front will serve as a mechanism to develop showers
along with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued area-wide through 8PM.
SPC has upgraded the southern two-thirds of the area to a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms. The main concern is for damaging wind
gusts with an additional more isolated risk for large hail. Timing
for the severe thunderstorm potential continues to be from 2pm-8pm.

2-5pm appears to be the prime window for isolated convection to pop
up across the area with ample heating and possible triggers being
local sea breeze boundaries. Many 12Z/15Z CAMs bring through a
cluster or line of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front which will
follow the earlier isolated convection. Timing for this appears to
be 5-8pm, tracking west to east, then losing intensity across
eastern portions of the area 8-10pm.

Mesoanalysis shows a good SBCAPE environment 1500-2500 J/kg with
these storms. However, mid level lapse rates (6-6.5 C) and bulk
shear (25-40kt) appear more modest. DCAPE is being analyzed very
strong for the area around 1000-1100 J/kg across NYC and Long
Island, which reinforces concern for damaging wind gusts. Based on
mesoanalysis, the areas of most concern for damaging wind appear to
be Union/Essex/Hudson NJ, NYC metro, Nassau county and western
Suffolk county.

PWATs are 1.6-2 inches, which is above the max moving average based
on SPC's Sounding Climatology Page. Rain rates could be
0.75/1.25"/hr with isolated higher rainfall rates around 2"/hr,
possible. 12Z HREF gives a 20-40% 10km neighborhood probability of
rainfall rates reaching or exceeding 1"/hr across the southern half
of the CWA. The 12Z REFS are 20-40% across western Long Island and
NE NJ, with parts of NYC higher around 50-60% 10-km neighborhood
probability 1"/hr.

The good news is storms will be moving west to east at a good clip.
Given the risk for heavier downpours in these thunderstorms,
isolated nuisance flooding is possible particularly across southern
portions of the area, including NYC. However, widespread or major
flooding is not anticipated.

Showers will likely linger the first half of the night near the
coast as the front works offshore. There may also be some
redevelopment of showers late tonight into early Thursday morning as
a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front. The low
pressure is tied to a passing jet streak to our north, associated
with a broad trough over Northern New England and southeast Canada.
There is still some uncertainty with this feature as some of the
model guidance keeps the showers just south of Long Island.

Conditions should dry out Thursday afternoon, but lingering cloud
cover may persist through much of the day. Best chance for some
clearing looks to be well northwest of the NYC metro.

Daytime temperatures on Thursday will only be in the 60s, 20-30
degrees cooler than Wednesday. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will
only be in the low/mid 60s, 20-30 degrees cooler than Wednesday.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The end of the week will remain dry and much cooler. The dry
period will be short-lived as unsettled weather with periods of
showers looks likely for the upcoming holiday weekend. The
frontal boundary that moves through today/Wednesday will remain
to our south with multiple disturbances/waves of low pressure
moving along it through the weekend. Moisture from these systems
will overrun high pressure to our north and east.

The main challenge for this period is timing when the most
widespread shower activity will occur. The highest probabilities
currently are from late Friday through early Sunday. However, there
is still some uncertainty, especially if the surface ridging from
the high is stronger. This would help suppress the showers a bit
further south, with at least the northern half of the region seeing
less rainfall. Chances for showers continue late Sunday into
Memorial Day as additional energy may pass to west or northwest.

Otherwise, will remain mostly cloudy through the weekend with
temperatures likely running below normal for late May in the low to
mid 60s. Nighttime temperatures should be in the 50s. The frontal
boundary may get pushed further south by next Tuesday, which could
help lower any chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves across this evening. The front slowly pushes
south of the region late tonight into Thursday with high pressure
slowly moving towards the area from the Great Lakes.

Showers and thunderstorms develop and move in through late this
afternoon. They continue early this evening. Some thunderstorms
could be severe with main threats being strong wind gusts up to 40-
50 kt and possible large hail. Periodic MVFR or lower will be
possible.

Thunderstorm chances lower by mid to late evening with most activity
south of Long Island. Showers do remain though for much of the
terminals tonight, becoming more periodic late tonight into
Thursday. Periodic MVFR will be possible.

Outside of the MVFR or lower possible, mainly VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period. Winds mainly westerly flow this
afternoon near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25 kt. Gusts subside
tonight with flow becoming more northerly near 10 kt. Winds become
more NE Thursday without much change in wind speed.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

* Timing of showers and thunderstorms could be off by 1-3 hours
  compared to TAF.

* Categorical changes in TAF could be off by a few hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal
terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers
in the afternoon. Mainly VFR Thursday night.

Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions late at night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during
the day.

Monday: Chance of MVFR or lower with showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory over ocean waters has been expired early.
Waves are below 5 ft. Its possible waves could return above 5 ft
with the front and any stronger showers or thunderstorms this
evening into early tonight. However, should this occur, it would
likely be too brief and local for a widespread SCA issuance.

Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels through Saturday
morning. Saturday morning into Sunday winds and waves may once again
reach SCA levels, while waves on ocean waters could remain elevated
into the start of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KEWR: 72/1996
KBDR: 61/2019
KNYC: 74/1996
KLGA: 77/1996
KJFK: 63/1996
KISP: 62/1996

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JM/BR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/BR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
243 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-211845-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
243 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ345-CTZ005>012-NYZ067>071-078>081-177-179-211845-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
243 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ380-383-385-211845-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
243 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-350-353-355-211845-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
243 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
435 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

CTZ009-NYZ070-071-202100-
Southern Fairfield CT-Southern Westchester NY-
Northern Westchester NY-
435 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 434 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
White Plains, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stamford, White Plains, Port Chester, Rye, Dobbs Ferry, Greenwich,
Harrison, Scarsdale, Hawthorne, Rye Brook, Greenville, Irvington,
Hartsdale, Elmsford, and Ardsley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southern Connecticut...and southeastern New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 7388 4112 7384 4112 7353 4097 7362
      4097 7365 4093 7369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 274DEG 27KT 4103 7375

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
503 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     Hail             1 N White Plains        41.04N 73.76W
05/20/2026  M0.75 Inch       Westchester        NY   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
520 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

CTZ005-009-NJZ103-NYZ069>071-202200-
Northern Fairfield CT-Southern Fairfield CT-Western Bergen NJ-
Rockland NY-Southern Westchester NY-Northern Westchester NY-
520 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHWESTERN
BERGEN...WESTCHESTER AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 519 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Yorktown Heights to Upper Nyack to near
Pearl River. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stamford, Norwalk, Danbury, White Plains, New City, Ossining, New
Canaan, Monsey, Nanuet, Ramsey, Haverstraw, Tarrytown, Mount Kisco,
Nyack, and Tappan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southern Connecticut...northeastern New Jersey...and southeastern New
York.

&&

LAT...LON 4138 7317 4111 7341 4101 7363 4102 7396
      4107 7406 4103 7407 4103 7421 4134 7379
      4137 7354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 268DEG 27KT 4131 7375 4112 7391 4107 7406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT

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