Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
815 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 12 am this evening
for NYC, northeast NJ, and the LoHud Valley. Damaging wind gusts
are the primary threat from these storms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A window remains for severe thunderstorms and localized flash
flooding through this evening. Additional strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible once again late Friday afternoon and
evening.

2) Hot and humid conditions continue through Friday and a Heat
Advisory remains in effect for much of the region.

3) Potential for more strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday late
afternoon and evening.

4) There is the potential for minor coastal flooding this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until midnight local time
for western half of the forecast area, including NYC.

Line of showers and thunderstorms continues to work east into
Eastern PA and Upstate NY as a shortwave trough moves into the
Northeast. The line has become more organized with embedded
severe thunderstorms, but should start to wane in intensity as
it reaches a diurnally stable air mass after dark. Can't rule
out damaging wind gusts along and ahead of the line as it enters
the forecast area by 9 or 10 pm, before the activity weakens in
a more stable air mass along the coast.

For Friday, it may largely be a repeat of Thursday with some
conditional instability building during the afternoon hours with
the heat and humidity. The main difference will be a more potent
upper level short wave moving through the region and a weak surface
cold front that could provide some more lift across the region
to support storm development. However, like today, there is a
lag in the timing of this feature and storms may not arrive
until the very late afternoon into the evening hours, as
instability will wane across the region, which will directly
impact storm coverage. Therefore, have trended down storm
chances but a strong to severe storm threat remains possible.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
This afternoon, temperatures across the region have reached the
upper 80s and lower 90s with dew points in the 70s. This has
resulted in heat index values in the upper 90s and lower 100s.
These hot conditions will subside this evening with some shower
and storm activity developing across the region and the loss of
peak diurnal heating.

Behind tonight's convective activity, an upper ridge will
return north on Friday and allow for similar conditions to
today. 850 mb temperatures will surge toward the 20 C mark,
translating to surface temperatures in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Moisture across the region will remain elevated with
surface dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Together, this
will allow for Heat Index Values to be in the mid 90s to lower
100s on Friday. The Heat Advisory remains valid for much of the
area through 8 PM Friday.

Temperatures and heat index values will remain muted in the
lower to mid 80s for coastal SE CT and Eastern Long Island, and
these areas will stay out of the Heat Advisory.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
An upper level shortwave trough approaches on Sunday along with an
associated cold front at the surface. Most of the day will be sunny
and hot with an increasing southerly flow. At this time, afternoon
temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s
do not raise a concern for heat hazards.

While it is too far out for specific details, there is at least
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and evening on Sunday. There is decent agreement among the
global models with QPF output along the approaching cold front,
along with a tongue of instability stretching into northeast NJ. The
SPC has outlined NYC and north and west in a Day 4 slight risk, with
the CSU-MLP showing a marginal risk.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
With the approach of a new moon astronomical tides will climb
some into the weekend. For mainly the southern bays of Queens,
western LI, and SW CT minor coastal flood benchmarks may be
approached for the Saturday and Sunday evening high tide cycles.
The relatively higher chance of minor benchmarks being met or
exceeded is for the Sunday evening high tide due to slightly
higher tide levels. Coastal flood headlines may be needed in
subsequent updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak elongated low pressure remains near the region through the TAF
period. A cold front approaches from the west Friday afternoon.

VFR outside of SHRA/TSRA.

Line of thunderstorms now just east of KAVP and KMDT at 00Z
continues to advance east into the region this evening. Latest
timing brings the activity into NYC terminals as early as 2Z,
likely closer to 3Z for KLGA and KJFK. MVFR or lower conds and
brief wind gusts to 40 kt or greater possible with the line. The
convection should begin to weaken as it pushes further east,
and any lingering showers should exit the area by 5Z with dry
conditions returning throughout. Additional chances for TSRA
return Friday afternoon, with PROB30 toward 20-21z thru 2-3Z
Sat.

Outside of any convective activity, winds are generally
westerly (or more variable) tonight, with speeds around 10 kt
for the city terminals, and 5 to 10 kt for most outlying
terminals. W to SW winds take shape again with similar wind
speeds Friday, gusts to around 20 kt possible in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of TSRA this evening could be off +/- 1 hr.

Brief gusts to 40+ kt possible with/ahead of the thunderstorms.

Gusts on Friday may initiate sooner than indicated in TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: MVFR or lower possible thru mid evening with
chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is potential for
some storms to be severe with damaging winds.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, then slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
with brief MVFR or lower possible late in the day. Showers likely at
night with MVFR or lower possible and a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts 20-25 kt afternoon and evening.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower with MVFR possible
early for eastern most terminals.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
towards evening and at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Light flow of 5 to 15 kts is expected through Saturday and Small
Craft Advisory headlines are not expected at this time. Winds
will be southwesterly through Friday evening before shifting to
the northwest behind a cold front.

There is potential for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday
into Sunday night with an increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold
front. This will likely be real marginal and mainly for the ocean
waters, with 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft seas.

Rip Currents...

For today, there is a moderate rip current risk with SW winds around
10 kt and surf around 3 ft.

On Friday, a SW flow around 10kt and a 3ft 6s swell from the south
will combine to bring a moderate risk of rip currents for southern
Nassau and southern Suffolk. The risk for NYC beaches is low, with a
bit of a weaker swell. It is marginal overall for all beaches, but
RCMOS helped lean towards increasing the risk.

The risk lowers to low on Saturday with a west wind under 10 kt and
a lingering 2 ft southerly swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 11:
KEWR: 96/2000
KBDR: 93/1984
KNYC: 95/1973
KLGA: 96/1984
KJFK: 93/1984
KISP: 93/1973

June 12:
KEWR: 97/2017
KBDR: 93/2017
KNYC: 93/2017
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 91/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 11:
KEWR: 77/1984
KBDR: 71/2008
KNYC: 78/1984
KLGA: 76/1973
KJFK: 76/1984
KISP: 71/1984

June 12:
KEWR: 74/1973
KBDR: 69/1973
KNYC: 76/2017
KLGA: 76/2017
KJFK: 73/1970
KISP: 70/1973

June 13:
KEWR: 74/2005
KBDR: 71/2017
KNYC: 77/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 72/2017
KISP: 70/1969

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005>010.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>075-078-080-
     176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ZPS/JT/DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...ZPS/JT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
227 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

CTZ005>010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-121830-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
227 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, there is the possibility of strong to severe
thunderstorms on Friday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ335-338-345-355-121830-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
227 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms on
Friday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-121830-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
227 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

In addition, there is the possibility of strong to severe
thunderstorms on Friday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-340-350-353-380-383-385-121830-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
227 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

In addition, there is the possibility of strong to severe
thunderstorms on Friday, mainly in the evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
811 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Fairfield          41.15N 73.24W
06/11/2026                   Fairfield          CT   Trained Spotter

            Tree snapped in half.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
822 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Oxford            41.43N 73.12W
06/11/2026                   New Haven          CT   Amateur Radio

            Tree down on wires down on Oxford Road,
            Oneill Road and Coppermine Road in Oxford
            CT.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
828 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     Lightning        1 WNW East Moriches     40.82N 72.78W
06/11/2026                   Suffolk            NY   Emergency Mngr

            House struck by lightning on Melissa Path in
            Center Moriches.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
829 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Lightning        1 WNW East Moriches     40.82N 72.78W
06/11/2026                   Suffolk            NY   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects previous lightning report for time.
            House struck by lightning on Melissa Path in
            Center Moriches.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
832 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Manorville        40.84N 72.81W
06/11/2026                   Suffolk            NY   Public

            Large tree down on Wading River Road in
            Manorville. Time estimated by radar.

&&