Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS New York, NY

782 
WGUS71 KOKX 181640
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1240 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC047-061-081-085-181800-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260718T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bergen NJ-Essex NJ-Hudson NJ-Passaic NJ-Union NJ-Kings (Brooklyn)
NY-New York (Manhattan) NY-Queens NY-Richmond (Staten Island) NY-
1240 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR BERGEN, ESSEX, HUDSON, EASTERN PASSAIC, UNION, KINGS 
(BROOKLYN), NEW YORK (MANHATTAN), QUEENS AND RICHMOND (STATEN 
ISLAND) COUNTIES...

At 1240 PM EDT, Additional heavy rain producing showers and 
thunderstorms will move into the warned form the southwest. Between 
1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 
to 2 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to 
begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Newark, Jersey City, Jamaica, Paterson, Elizabeth, Flatbush, 
  Flushing, Passaic, Bayonne, Wayne, Hoboken, Plainfield, 
  Bloomfield, Hackensack, Linden, Orange, Bergenfield, Paramus, 
  Ridgewood and Coney Island.

This includes the following Event Locations...
New York/New Jersey Stadium, Brooklyn Bridge Park, Sports 
Illustrated Stadium and Rockefeller Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 7433 4091 7427 4100 7430 4105 7444
      4111 7422 4086 7391 4080 7393 4080 7384
      4071 7373 4063 7377 4058 7375 4053 7393
      4060 7404 4048 7425 4048 7426 4060 7422
      4060 7446 4066 7440 4071 7442 4075 7436

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

DW

615 
WGUS71 KOKX 181650
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1250 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC047-061-081-085-181800-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260718T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bergen NJ-Essex NJ-Hudson NJ-Passaic NJ-Union NJ-Kings (Brooklyn)
NY-New York (Manhattan) NY-Queens NY-Richmond (Staten Island) NY-
1250 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN BERGEN, ESSEX, HUDSON, EASTERN PASSAIC, 
UNION, KINGS (BROOKLYN), NEW YORK (MANHATTAN), QUEENS AND RICHMOND 
(STATEN ISLAND) COUNTIES...

At 1250 PM EDT, Additional heavy rain producing showers and 
thunderstorms will move into the warned form the southwest. Between 
1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 
to 2 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to 
begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Newark, Jersey City, Jamaica, Elizabeth, Flatbush, Flushing, 
  Passaic, Bayonne, Hoboken, Plainfield, Bloomfield, Hackensack, 
  Linden, Orange, Coney Island, Summit, Lyndhurst, Millburn, 
  Rutherford and Secaucus.

This includes the following Event Locations...
New York/New Jersey Stadium, Brooklyn Bridge Park, Sports 
Illustrated Stadium and Rockefeller Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4086 7432 4091 7433 4090 7396 4086 7391
      4080 7393 4080 7384 4071 7373 4063 7377
      4058 7375 4053 7393 4055 7395 4056 7394
      4060 7404 4048 7425 4048 7426 4060 7422
      4060 7446 4066 7440 4070 7442 4075 7436

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

DW

303 
WGUS71 KOKX 181757
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
157 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC047-061-081-085-181807-
/O.EXP.KOKX.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260718T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bergen NJ-Essex NJ-Hudson NJ-Passaic NJ-Union NJ-Kings (Brooklyn)
NY-New York (Manhattan) NY-Queens NY-Richmond (Staten Island) NY-
157 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTHERN BERGEN, ESSEX, HUDSON, EASTERN PASSAIC, UNION, KINGS 
(BROOKLYN), NEW YORK (MANHATTAN), QUEENS AND RICHMOND (STATEN 
ISLAND) COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT Sunday for portions 
of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4086 7432 4091 7433 4090 7396 4086 7391
      4080 7393 4080 7384 4071 7373 4063 7377
      4058 7375 4053 7393 4055 7395 4056 7394
      4060 7404 4048 7425 4048 7426 4060 7422
      4060 7446 4066 7440 4070 7442 4075 7436

$$

DBR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC has expanded the enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms
north and east to include much of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE
NJ, and NYC metro.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible this
afternoon into this evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect 10 AM
this morning until 2 AM Sunday for NE NJ, NYC metro and Southern
Westchester.

2) Areas of smoke expected this morning into the afternoon with
reduced air quality and visibilities possible. Air quality alerts
remain in effect from State DEPs until midnight.

2) Dangerous rip currents are expected at ocean beaches through
this evening, potentially lingering at Suffolk beaches on Sunday.

3) Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible late Tuesday
into a portion of Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper level trough digs down into the Great Lakes Saturday and
swings across eastern Canada and the northeast US Saturday night.
Ahead of this feature, shortwave energy will pass across the area
this afternoon as a warm front lifts north of the area into the
afternoon. A pre-frontal trough will follow late in the afternoon
with the main cold front moving across the area this evening with
the potential of another line of showers/storms. Severe
thunderstorms and potential flash flooding are the main concerns
this afternoon and evening.

It is important to note the exact location of the severe and
flooding hazards may not become clear until a few hours before
the onset due to the aforementioned uncertainties.

PWATs are progged to reach between 2 and 2.25 inches, which is well
above the observed 90th percentile per OKX RAOB climo.
Freezing levels look to range from 13-15 kft with deep warm cloud
layers, supporting efficient warm rain processes. These ingredients
support the potential for heavy downpours in any convection this
afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty with the
amount destabilization today, especially with lingering smoke this
morning and potentially apart of the afternoon (see key message 2
for more details on the smoke). The passage of the shortwave should
allow the smoke to move away from the area in the afternoon. The
greatest instability may set up just to our southwest, especially as
the shortwave moves across the area. There should still be at least
1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but surface based CAPE could be limited
this afternoon, unless greater destabilization occurs further
north. The mid level flow is also fast enough to keep the
convection moving across the area, which may limit the flooding
potential. The latest HREF has a small area of 30 percent chance
of greater than 3 inches in 3 hours just south of of our NE NJ
and NYC metro zones. This is close to our flood watch and most
susceptible areas for flash flooding, so no changes were made to
the flood watch. Peak hourly rainfall rates of 1.5-2"/hour are
possible. Isolated instances of flash flooding in some urban
areas across the I-95 in S CT and potentially western LI are
possible, but not enough confidence for an expansion of the
watch at this time. WPC has maintained the slight risk for
excessive rainfall.

SPC has expanded the enhanced risk into much of the Lower Hudson
Valley, NE NJ, and NYC metro with a slight risk remaining
elsewhere. As noted above, there is uncertainty with the amount
of destabilization due to smoke and potential of a round of
convection as early as late morning and early-mid afternoon. The
00z HREF is indicated a mean SBCAPE of around 1000 J/kg across
NE NJ into the NYC metro, but an ensemble maximum of upwards of
2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon for these areas. Elsewhere, the
mean is around 500 J/kg with an ensemble max of 1500-2000 J/kg.
The max surface CAPE values are possible if the smoke clears
sooner and if the first round of convection is weak or moves
out quicker. Bulk shear around 40 kt continues to be progged
and there is low level directional shear/curvature in the wind
profiles. The main threat from any severe storms will be
damaging wind gusts. There is also a risk of a tornado,
especially if the warm front lingers nearby, which would enhance
low level helicity and shear. If we are able to get clearing
and the first wave does not leave behind subsidence, then the
potential line of storms with the cold front/pre-frontal trough
could also contain a few severe thunderstorms.

The cold front moves through the area around midnight, bringing an
end to the threat of showers and thunderstorms.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Smoke is beginning to filter back into the area from the south
early this morning as high pressure has moved offshore. HRRR,
RAP, and RRFS smoke fields all show areas of smoke lingering
across the area this morning and potentially into a portion of
the afternoon. The smoke should begin to clear out and move to
the east as a shortwave and showers/storms move across the area.

There will be reduced air quality and visibilities into at least
the early afternoon. NYDEP, NJDEP, and CTDEEP all have air
quality alerts in effect until midnight.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Dangerous rip currents are expected at ocean beaches through
this evening. A high rip current risk is in effect due to
a strengthening southerly flow at 15 to 20 kt and SE swells.

On Sunday, the high risk likely only continues for Suffolk
County and during the morning hours. Guidance is showing a
lingering 5 to 6 ft swell at 7s.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Guidance continues to be in good agreement on an amplified
shortwave trough moving across the northeast Tuesday into
Wednesday. The trough may then linger over the region through
the end of the week. The next cold front will approach on
Tuesday with increasing probabilities for another round of
showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. CSU
MLP is indicating a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm and
WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. It is a bit too early for any specific severe or
flooding impacts, but will continue monitoring trends over the
next few days. Lingering showers may continue into a portion of
Wednesday. High pressure should build into the northeast with
mainly dry weather to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will give way to an approaching frontal system
today. A warm front will move across the terminals late this
morning/early afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage
tonight.

Then several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
to move through the area today with MVFR or lower conditions.
Smoke has returned this morning bringing visibilities down to
2-4sm in NYC and even lower at some of the outlying terminals.
The latest HRRR continues to show the greatest concentration
between 12Z and 18Z, with improvement in the afternoon.
Tonight, some MVFR or lower cigs will be possible for the first
half of the night, with improvement back to VFR behind a cold
front as drier air works in from the north. The only exception
could be at KGON, where sub-VFR conditions could continue for
much of the overnight period.

SW/S winds increase to 10-15 kt with G20-25kt, with the highest
across the eastern terminals. Low chance for SW LLWS below
2kft. Tonight, winds gradually become more westerly the
northwesterly behind a cold front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely today for 1- Any changes in smoke
conditions from the wildfires in Canada and 2- timing of showers
and thunderstorms associated with the frontal system moving
across the area terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday and Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
An SCA remains in effect into tonight for all waters except the
NY Harbor and western LI Sound. Wind gusts should reach around
25 kt with seas building to around 5 ft on the ocean. 5 ft seas
may linger on the ocean tonight into early Sunday, so the
Advisory continues until noon on Sunday.

Conditions are then quiet until the next cold frontal passage
during the middle of next week. SCA conditions are possible
Tuesday through Wednesday night, with the potential of 7 to 10
ft seas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ071>075-176-178.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight
     for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon EDT Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
306 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>074-176-190715-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northern Queens-
306 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected from late this morning into
this evening. Some storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts as
the primary threat. An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NYZ067>070-078-079-177-190715-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-
306 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected from late this morning into
this evening. Some storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts as
the primary threat. An isolated tornado is also possible. Heavy
rainfall is also possible which may lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ075-178-190715-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-
306 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected from late this morning into
this evening. Some storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts as
the primary threat. An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-081-179-190715-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Nassau-
306 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected from late this morning into
this evening. Some storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts as
the primary threat. An isolated tornado is also possible. Heavy
rainfall is also possible which may lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385-190715-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
306 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday into Saturday night with
potential of wind gusts to 50 kt and an isolated waterspout.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1120 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072-074-075-176-181600-
Hudson NJ-Eastern Union NJ-Eastern Essex NJ-Western Union NJ-
Northern Queens NY-New York (Manhattan) NY-Kings (Brooklyn) NY-
Richmond (Staten Is.) NY-
1120 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT UNION...SOUTHEASTERN
ESSEX...HUDSON...RICHMOND...KINGS...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) AND QUEENS
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT...

At 1118 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clark, or near Linden, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to sensitive outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Elizabeth and Linden around 1125 AM EDT.
  Port Richmond around 1130 AM EDT.
  Bayonne around 1135 AM EDT.
  Tompkinsville around 1140 AM EDT.
  Jersey City around 1145 AM EDT.
  Battery Park around 1150 AM EDT.

This includes the following event locations Brooklyn Bridge Park,
Sports Illustrated Stadium, and Rockefeller Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 7431 4060 7438 4069 7442 4072 7429
      4071 7425 4074 7421 4077 7410 4076 7409
      4077 7409 4081 7393 4080 7393 4079 7389
      4079 7387 4070 7386 4069 7387 4065 7386
      4060 7423 4060 7426 4059 7429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 256DEG 21KT 4062 7430

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Goodman