Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this
morning, ending out east early this afternoon. Rainfall will be
heavy at times with the potential for isolated to scattered flash
floods. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the area
into early afternoon.

2) Brief minor coastal flooding possible for vulnerable areas along
the coast for southern Fairfield during times of high tide this
afternoon.

3) Dry with near seasonable temperatures expected Monday through
Wednesday, followed by a low probability of showers Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
No changes were made to the Flood Watch, which remains in
effect for NE NJ, NYC metro, and S Westchester through 12 pm and
goes into effect for Long Island, and much of S. CT at 6 am and
runs until 2 pm.

A warm front just south of the area will continue to gradually
lift to the north through this morning. At the same time,
shortwave energy will pass over the area. The combination of these
two systems will tap into a tropical airmass with PWATs
increasing to 2-2.25" this morning, especially close to the coast.
Showers have overspread the area and will persist for much of the
morning. The main concern with the showers will be heavy
downpours and the potential for isolated to scattered flash
floods. The showers will likely end around the NYC metro/Hudson
River corridor on west around mid morning, but persist across
eastern Long Island and southeast CT into the early afternoon.

The CAMs have been jumping around where the bands of heaviest
rain will occur, but the signal in the guidance over the last
24 hours has been favoring somewhere over Long Island or
southeastern CT. The signal is a bit more robust for these
locations with the proximity of the warm front and potential
wave of low pressure. However, determining where the heaviest
rainfall will ultimately occur is often difficult until the
showers are moving over area.

The 00z HREF has lowered the probability of greater than 3"
in 3 hours over the NYC metro and NE NJ to 10-20 percent.
Further east across central and eastern Long Island and
southeast Connecticut, the probability of greater than 3" in 3
hours ranges from 40-60 percent, which has increased a bit since
the 12z 9/12 run. In recent years flash flooding has typically
corresponded with at least 30 percent probabilities for greater
than 3" in 3 hours on the HREF.

Based on analysis from the WPC Urban Rain Rate Dashboard (URRD),
peak rainfall rates may reach 1.5-2"/hr in NE NJ, NYC metro and
S Westchester sometime from 11z-13z. For Long Island and
portions of Southern CT, peak rainfall rates may be 2-2.5"/hr at
times from 12z- 16z. The chance for a 3"/hr rate based on the
WPC URRD is very low and generally less than 5 percent. Peak
rainfall rates will likely be lower for the Lower Hudson Valley,
1-1.5", with the warm front and potential enhancement ending up
further south.

Average rainfall amounts generally range from 1 to 2 inches for
NE NJ into the NYC metro with locally higher amounts up to
2.5-3" possible. Further east across Long Island and much of S
CT, amounts may range from 1.5-2.5" with locally higher amounts
from 3 to 5" possible. For Lower Hudson Valley, amounts should
average around an inch.

A few thunderstorms are possible, but limited instability should
preclude any severe thunderstorm development. Will have to watch
along the warm front as this is where local shear/helicity
enhancement can occur, but the limited instability and poor lapse
rates will be negating factors.

Improving conditions are expected from west to east this afternoon.
A trailing cold front will approach this evening and move across
the area overnight. A few showers are possible, but they will
be brief and are not expected to produce any heavy rainfall,
should they occur.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Given high astronomical tides coming off a new moon and weak
surge from an approaching frontal wave, brief minor coastal
flooding is possible this afternoon during times of high tide
for southern Fairfield.

A blend of ETSS, STOFS and Stevens 50th percentile was used
again for forecast water levels. This captured yesterday's high
tide pretty well with some locations in southern Fairfield just
touching minor flood benchmarks. Given levels today are modeled
to be a tenth or two higher, went with a Coastal Flood
Statement.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Canadian high pressure builds over the northeast on Monday
ushering in cooler and much drier air. Dew points will likely
fall through the day into the 40s to low 50s and temperatures
will struggle to reach seasonable averages with highs in the
lower 70s, potentially mid 60s in the NYC metro. Cold/dry
advection may bring a few NW wind gusts 20-25 mph. Ideal
radiational cooling conditions are looking likely Monday night
allowing temperatures to bottom out in the mid to upper 40s
inland and 50s closer to the coast. If the low Monday night
falls below 60 degrees in NYC, it will be the first time the
temperature has been below 60 degrees at Central Park since June
16 when the low was 57. Highs on Tuesday will remain slightly
below normal in the lower 70s. Some moderation is anticipated by
Wednesday with highs returning close to if not slightly above
normal.

Strong ridging aloft may start breaking down by Thursday which
could send the next cold front towards the area. The latest
model consensus has low probabilities for showers Thursday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front and wave of low pressure impact the terminals
today. A cold front moves through tonight.

Showers with embedded heavy downpours and thunder this morning
with vsbys lowering to IFR or even LIFR in the heaviest rain.
IFR cigs. Improvement expected for NYC terminals and Lower
Hudson Valley terminals from 15Z to 18Z, but will be several
hours slower for the eastern terminals. VFR expected to develop
in the afternoon for all but KGON (which may be closer to early
evening.

The wind forecast has quite a bit of uncertainty after 12Z as
a warm front and frontal wave move across the area, but expected
to remain below 10 kt. Based on current trends, KEWR, KTEB,
KLGA, KHPN and KSWF may remain more out of the N. SE elsewhere.
Wind direction forecast for this time is low confidence. Winds
remain light and become more W this afternoon and eventually NW
behind a cold front late tonight with 20-25 kt gusts.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely this morning for timing of heavy
showers/thunderstorms and corresponding flight categories.

Wind direction forecast late morning into the afternoon is low
confidence, but generally less than 10 kt. Winds may be highly
variable at times. Even a chance of afternoon seabreeze
development.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR. Northerly wind gusts 15-20 kt day into early
evening.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible on the ocean today as a
warm front and associated wave of low pressure move across the
waters. Gusts may approach SCA levels, especially on the ocean,
on Monday behind a cold front passage and a tightening pressure
gradient. An SCA may be needed if trends continue. Otherwise,
conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels into
Thursday.

Rip Currents...
A moderate risk of rip currents remains for today. S/SW winds
early today around 10-15 kt will build a wind wave to around
4ft at 5s out of the S.

The risk has been lowered to low for Monday given an offshore wind
component and no significant swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ006>012.
NY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ078>081-177-
     179.
     Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NYZ071>075-176-178.
NJ...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DS/JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DS/JT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
237 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-176-178-140645-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
237 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005-NYZ067>070-140645-
Northern Fairfield-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
237 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A frontal system will bring showers and the potential for heavy
downpours this morning bringing a chance of localized flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ006>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-140645-
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
237 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385-140645-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
237 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
747 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     Flash Flood      Paterson                40.92N 74.17W
09/13/2026                   Passaic            NJ   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire department is responding to multiple
            vehicles trapped in flood waters in the city
            of Paterson. High water vehicle is also
            being used.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
751 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     Flash Flood      1 SSE Paterson          40.91N 74.16W
09/13/2026                   Passaic            NJ   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vehicle stranded in flood waters on 21st
            Avenue near Martin Street.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>