Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS New York, NY

440 
WGUS71 KOKX 060221
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1021 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

NYC071-060400-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260706T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Orange NY-
1021 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT 
FOR NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY...

At 1021 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 
and 4 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 
to 2.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 
inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Newburgh, Middletown, Port Jervis, Walden, Howells, New Windsor, 
  Gardnertown, Montgomery, Cuddebackville, Otisville, Huguenot, 
  Scotchtown, Deerpark, Orange Lake, Mechanicstown, Vails Gate, 
  Balmville, Maybrook, Slate Hill and Pine Bush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 7469 4140 7474 4143 7474 4144 7476
      4150 7464 4151 7448 4157 7442 4163 7426
      4163 7425 4161 7425 4159 7419 4158 7413
      4162 7413 4161 7407 4158 7405 4159 7395
      4152 7400 4145 7399 4142 7435 4133 7464

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1.5-2.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

BR

624 
WGUS51 KOKX 060330
FFWOKX
NYC071-060600-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260706T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
1130 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The National Weather Service in Upton has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northern Orange County in southeastern New York...

* Until 200 AM EDT.

* At 1130 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
  2.5 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate 
  is 1.5 to 2.75 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 
  to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
  ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Newburgh, Middletown, Port Jervis, Walden, Howells, New Windsor, 
  Gardnertown, Montgomery, Cuddebackville, Otisville, Huguenot, 
  Scotchtown, Deerpark, Orange Lake, Mechanicstown, Vails Gate, 
  Balmville, Maybrook, Slate Hill and Pine Bush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 7469 4140 7474 4143 7474 4144 7476
      4150 7464 4151 7448 4157 7442 4163 7426
      4163 7425 4161 7425 4159 7419 4158 7413
      4162 7413 4161 7407 4158 7405 4159 7395
      4152 7400 4145 7399 4142 7435 4133 7464

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1.5-2.75 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

BR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
834 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in flash flooding potential has increased, although
the exact location of the heaviest rainfall/greatest flooding
still remains somewhat uncertain. A Moderate Risk for excessive
rainfall/flash flooding has been expanded to include portions
of southern NY (excluding NYC and Long Island) and northern New
Jersey this evening through tonight and across the majority of
the area (excluding far eastern Long Island) for Monday and
Monday night. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Monday
and Monday night (see Marine discussion below).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms through late
Monday could lead to scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding. Flooding may be locally significant.

2) A few storms may produce strong wind gusts into this
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A stationary front will remain to the south of the
local area through late Monday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and
thunderstorms are anticipated as a series of shortwaves ride along
the boundary through late Monday and possibly into Tuesday.

Expect showers and storms to be more widespread Monday and
Monday night as better upper level support/jet energy moves into
the region.

Conditions are still favorable for torrential rainfall
rates/flooding through late Monday due to a very humid air mass
over the region and a Flood Watch remains in effect through
Monday night. PWATs will be around 2 inches areawide, although
PWATs of 2+ inches may periodically advect into the southern
portion of the area, which is higher than daily max sounding
climatology values. Mean flow will largely be parallel to the
frontal boundary so training is likely with potential for
backbuilding. 12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than
3 inches of rain in 3 hours highlights portions of the western
Hudson Valley and western local NJ counties in a 30 percent
contour for this evening into tonight, which is typically a
good indication of flash flooding potential for this area. WPC
has expanded a Moderate ERO into this area to highlight the
enhanced flash flood potential. The flash flood risk may shift a
bit farther eastward on Monday and similar HREF probabilities
are in place over portions of the NYC metro area Monday
afternoon with up to 50 percent across portions of NJ. A
Moderate ERO has been introduced to the entire CWA for
Monday/Monday night. Flooding impacts would be highest in urban
and poor drainage areas in addition to the most responsive
rivers/creeks/streams.

In terms of rainfall amounts, storm total QPF through Tuesday will
likely range between 2 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts
of 4+ inches. Rainfall rates will likely be 1-2 inches per hour
with locally higher rates possible. The main area of
uncertainty with the forecast is where the highest rainfall
totals and resulting flooding will occur and will depend on the
exact placement of the frontal boundary.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Given the moist environment, a few strong thunderstorms are possible
into tonight, although the threat is rather isolated/low given
lack of shear/instability. Any stronger thunderstorms would be
related to wet downbursts in any storms that manage to grow
decent cores. The best chance of thunderstorms will be across
NJ, the Hudson Valley, NYC, and western Long Island.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wave of low pressure develops along a front south of the
region through the TAF period.

Conditions deteriorate during the TAF period from VFR to IFR
tonight with potential LIFR towards the end of the TAF period.

Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage this evening from
west to east. TEMPOs for thunderstorms are included in the TAFs
before 6Z. More showers thereafter into Monday. Additional
thunderstorms are possible overnight and on Monday but only went
PROB30 for those.

Winds are going to be transitioning from ESE to more E-ENE with
wind speeds near 5-10 kts tonight into early Monday and then
increasing along the coast to near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20
kt Monday morning through rest of TAF period. Some terminals
away from the coast will at times have more variable wind
directions.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and
thunderstorms.

Brief higher wind gusts are possible within some thunderstorms.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: IFR with periods of rain. Low chance of thunder.
NE winds gusting around 20kt.

Tuesday: IFR and rain in the morning. Slight chance of thunder.
Improving to MVFR in the afternoon with showers.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Possible showers and thunderstorms, mainly north and
west of NYC. Brief MVFR to IFR possible, otherwise mainly VFR.

Friday: VFR in the morning, chance of SHRA/TSRA and MVFR to IFR
in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Long Island
Sound from late Monday morning into late Monday night and from Fire
Island Inlet to Montauk Point in addition to the South Shore Bays
from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay from late Monday morning to
6 AM Tuesday morning. East to east-northeast wind gusts to 25 to as
high as near 30 knots and waves of 4 to periodically 5 feet are
expected during this time. Waves may remain elevated into
Tuesday.

Rip Currents: A low risk is expected for today. Increasing E
flow should increase the risk back to moderate for
Monday. Flow continues to shift out of the NE but given
persisting E/SE swell a moderate is maintained for Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through late Monday night for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch through late Monday night for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ069>075-
     176-178.
NJ...Flood Watch through late Monday night for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ345-350-353.

&&

DISCUSSION...AM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...AM/MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>071-061930-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NJZ006-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-061930-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385-061930-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.