Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS New York, NY

724 
WGUS71 KOKX 260656
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
256 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

NJC003-031-NYC071-087-260745-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260626T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bergen NJ-Passaic NJ-Orange NY-Rockland NY-
256 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM EDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BERGEN, PASSAIC, SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND 
ROCKLAND COUNTIES...

At 256 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inch of rain has 
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1 inch in 1 hour. 
Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned 
area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  New City, West Milford, Monsey, Nanuet, Ramsey, Ringwood, 
  Haverstraw, Pompton Lakes, Suffern, Sloatsburg, Pearl River, 
  Bloomingdale, Greenwood Lake, Pomona, Upper Nyack, Upper Greenwood 
  Lake, Spring Valley, Wyckoff, Stony Point and Oakland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4127 7396 4125 7397 4121 7393 4114 7389
      4104 7398 4095 7428 4097 7428 4098 7430
      4100 7430 4101 7439 4103 7442 4102 7443
      4104 7443 4105 7445 4104 7448 4106 7450
      4108 7449 4109 7450 4120 7437 4130 7398

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1 INCH IN 1 HOUR

$$

JP

076 
WGUS71 KOKX 260741
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
341 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

NJC003-031-NYC071-087-260751-
/O.EXP.KOKX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260626T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bergen NJ-Passaic NJ-Orange NY-Rockland NY-
341 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING AT 345 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN BERGEN, PASSAIC, SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND ROCKLAND 
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

&&

LAT...LON 4127 7396 4125 7397 4121 7393 4114 7389
      4104 7398 4095 7428 4097 7428 4098 7430
      4100 7430 4101 7439 4103 7442 4102 7443
      4104 7443 4105 7445 4104 7448 4106 7450
      4108 7449 4109 7450 4120 7437 4130 7398

$$

JP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1135 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances have increased for Saturday, likely lingering into
the afternoon, especially for coastal locations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A complex frontal system will impact us tonight through
Saturday bringing several chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Severe and flash flooding impacts are not anticipated at this
time.

2) High pressure builds late this weekend into the middle of next
week bringing the potential for a prolonged period of heat. However,
confidence is low towards mid-week with unsettled weather remaining
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The combination of favorable jet dynamics (LFQ) and a shortwave
trough emerging from the Great Lakes will be the catalyst for
a complex of showers and thunderstorms to develop across
western NY and western PA late this afternoon into this evening.
The complex will track east along a warm frontal boundary.
While the portion of the warm front that works into our area
tonight looks rather diffuse, upper support should allow the
complex to make it this far east, but in a weakened state.
Severe weather and flooding are highly unlikely due a more
stable airmass and the progressive nature of the system. The
best chance for rain will be north and west of NYC with decreasing
chances toward the coast where there will be less upper support.
Highest rainfall amounts of up to a quarter inch will also be
across the interior. Localized higher amounts possible in
thunderstorms.

A few showers may linger into the morning hours Friday,
otherwise it should be mainly dry. However, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across New England in
the afternoon due to steep mid-level lapse rates and marginal
instability. There is a low chance for some of this to affect
CT and LI in the late afternoon/early evening. Any rain would be
brief. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

The associated cold front trailing from low pressure passing to
the north will move across the area late Friday night. The
location of this boundary and how quickly it settles to the
south will be key to how much rain the area receives and whether
there is enough instability for thunderstorms. A consenus
forecast approach supports the boundary and developing low
pressure along it to be far enough south for mainly rain.
However, rain chances have increased and it will likely
continue into the afternoon, especially for LI. There are
solutions such as the 12Z NAM 12km and NAM 3km that keep the
front closer to the area with enough instability to support
stronger convection and a potential for moderate to heavy
rainfall. This solution though is an outlier at this time, but
subtle timing and amplification changes with the upper trough
will need to be watched. Right now, widespread coverage expected
late Friday night into Saturday morning, decreasing in the
afternoon from north to south.

Did deviate some from the NBM temperatures the next couple of
days due to a recent high bias, cloud cover, and wind direction
being more easterly on Saturday. Highs will be in the 80s on
Friday away from the immediate coastline, but likely not getting
out of the 70s on Saturday due to cloud cover/rain. Lows during
this time will mainly in the 60s. It will also become noticeably
more humid on Friday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Surface high pressure drops down from Canada on Sunday and causes
conditions to dry out. Meanwhile, mid level ridging begins to
amplify over the Midwest, with the local area straddling the eastern
periphery of this ridge.

There remains plenty of uncertainty with the strength and
positioning of the ridge as it attempts to build east. Some model
guidance show a digging trough over the Western Atlantic may try to
close off which would lead to a cooler, more unsettled pattern.
Conversely, there are other models that offer shallower, more
transient troughing that favors warmer weather with a quicker
eastward expansion of the ridge. Adding to the low confidence is the
possibility of any ridge riders coming down into the area, producing
more in the way of convection and muted temperatures.

NBM spread captures this uncertainty well, with 15+ degree
separation between the 25th and 75th percentile high temperatures
mid next week. For now, increasing confidence in seasonable summer
heat returning early week, with at least the possibility for hotter
weather mid to late next week, though many solutions still on the
table.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front moves through late tonight, followed by a cold
frontal passage on Friday.

Mainly VFR. Showers move through west to east tonight through
13z which could bring brief MVFR cigs and vsby. Highest
confidence in thunder is at KSWF. Can not be ruled out for other
terminals but very low chance.

Weakening S flow tonight, picking back up out of the S on Friday
around 10kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible with shower activity 7-11z.

Thunder can not be completely ruled out, but very low chance.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: Chance of showers late with MVFR cond possible.

Saturday: MVFR cond likely, IFR vsby possible with showers,
especially in the morning. A late day tstm possible at the NYC
metros and KSWF.

Saturday night: Mainly VFR.

Sunday and Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon especially KJFK.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conds are expected to prevail through the forecast
period.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk of rip currents for the rest of today and
Friday with 2 to 3 ft southerly swells at 5-7 sec periods.
Persisted the moderate risk for Saturday, however, it is a low-
end moderate which given light onshore flow and 2 ft waves may
end up being a low risk in future forecasts.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DW/MW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DW/MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
230 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

ANZ340-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
260630-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
230 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-345-350-353-355-380-383-385-260630-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
230 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.