Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1237 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- A slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the most likely
  hazard, with tornadoes and large hail possible.

- Cooler and drier conditions Thursday, then warming up for the
  weekend.

- Showers and storms with another cold front late Sunday followed
  by a hard freeze Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Showers and storms were on our western doorstep late this
Wednesday morning with some bowing segments developing. This first
band will move across the area through the afternoon. We remain
under a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms and SPC
has indicated watches will be likely for at least portions of the
area. The greatest threat for severe storms will be along the
leading band. Conditions ahead of the band were moist with weak to
moderate instability in the 700-1500 J/kg range. Deep layer shear
was strong, over 50KT in the 0-6km layer. The main hazard with
storms will be damaging wind gusts, but large hail and tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Low level helicity was unimpressive, but
could become locally enhanced just enough for some spinners.
Although a generally low-end risk, the area of greatest tornado
potential in Middle Tennessee is over the southwest, including
Lawrenceburg.

After the first band moves through, the atmosphere is likely to
be "turned over" in terms of instability with a more showery
second band along the front later this evening. Precipitable
water values will be high, above the 90th percentile for this time
of year, so downpours could be heavy with brief flooding of
streets and low lying areas. Generally, rainfall amounts of
1.0"-1.5" will be common.

Winds will be quite gusty this afternoon through tonight. We have
already had some gusts over 40 mph at CKV. This is borderline for
a Wind Advisory. We will hold off on issuance for now as CAMs
show gust values backing off a little late afternoon. Frequent
gusts in the 30s should be expected.

Severe potential should wane by 9 PM with rain coming to an end
around midnight. Behind the front, temperatures will fall quickly
with temps in the 30s by Thursday morning. Gusty northwest winds
will drop wind chills down into the 20s.

Thursday will be dry and much cooler. The sun will come out, but
highs will be limited to the 50s with a northwest breeze 10 to 20
mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Thursday night will be seasonably cool with lows in the 30s. With
a fast-moving large scale pattern continuing, temperatures will
rebound quickly. Highs will reach the 60s Friday and lower 70s
Saturday.

Sunday will be even warmer, but this will set us up for another
round of showers and storms late Sunday as another cold front
approaches. Right now, we are not outlooked for severe storms,
but winds will be very gusty as the front passes late Sunday into
early Monday. And this cold front will be a doozy with highs early
next week mostly in the 40s and a hard freeze for Monday night.
NBM data show a little post-frontal snow accum early Monday.
Although a few snowflakes will likely fall, I have doubts about
any accumulations with such warm conditions preceding the front
and a fairly quick exit of deep moisture. The main story is the
coldest air we have experienced in more than 2 weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Convection is occurring ahead of a cold front that is currently
situated to the west of Middle Tennessee. We do expect a somewhat
organized line of cells to move across the region during the
afternoon. We've used the latest HRRR model to include 2-hour
TEMPO groups in each TAF to highlight the most likely time frame
for TS/CBs. (We do have reasonably high confidence in the
timing.) Once the initial line of storms moves through, there will
be a swath of mainly light showers and also low ceilings. Winds
will remain quite gusty through the overnight period and into
tomorrow, so we're not concerned about radiation fog. Ceilings
should improve quickly after 12Z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      39  55  38  68 / 100   0   0   0
Clarksville    37  56  39  67 /  90   0   0   0
Crossville     34  50  33  61 / 100   0   0   0
Columbia       37  55  36  67 / 100   0   0   0
Cookeville     36  51  35  62 / 100   0   0   0
Jamestown      34  50  33  62 / 100   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   37  55  36  65 / 100   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   38  55  35  66 / 100   0   0   0
Waverly        36  55  39  65 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
225 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Goodlettsville    36.32N 86.71W
03/11/2026                   Davidson           TN   Public

            A building in Goodletsville lost some
            roofing material.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
226 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     10 E Waynesboro         35.30N 87.59W
03/11/2026                   Wayne              TN   Broadcast Media

            Powerlines down in eastern Wayne county,
            near Natchez Trace.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
228 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     12 WNW Lawrenceburg     35.31N 87.54W
03/11/2026  E60 MPH          Lawrence           TN   Broadcast Media

            Local storm spotter reports winds near 60
            mph.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
230 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Hail             3 NNE Hendersonville    36.33N 86.58W
03/11/2026  M0.75 Inch       Sumner             TN   Broadcast Media

            Reported at Hendersonville Library.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
232 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WNW Hendersonville    36.31N 86.63W
03/11/2026                   Sumner             TN   Public

            Road blocked by tree down.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
236 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Hail             Lawrenceburg            35.25N 87.34W
03/11/2026  M0.88 Inch       Lawrence           TN   Trained Spotter

            Nickel-size hail occuring on Valley Rd.

&&