Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Rain and storm chances today across Middle Tennessee, greatest
  coverage expected through the afternoon and evening. Highest
  chances for strong storms are east of I-65.

- Once the cold front comes through, we can look forward to much
  drier and also much cooler weather for the next 2-3 days.

- A more humid and active weather pattern will return later in
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A cold front is approaching from the NW and will move through
Middle TN today. After the first round of showers this morning,
another round of more organized storms is expected later this
afternoon as daytime heating and a shortwave enhances instability
ahead of boundary. CAMs indicate the best coverage and intensity
this afternoon into the evening, particularly along and east of
I-65, with the strongest activity focused across the TN/AL border,
up through the southern Plateau. Damaging wind gusts remain the
primary threat given marginal low-level lapse rates, CAPE, and
wind shear. There are sufficient PWATs for heavy rainfall so can't
rule out any localized minor flooding in any areas that see
repeated development.

High temperatures today will reach the 80s. Behind the front this
evening and tonight, showers and storms will diminish from west to
east. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s, providing a
noticeable cooldown.

Monday looks much quieter with drier air in place. Patchy fog is
possible Monday morning in areas that receive heavy rain
overnight. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies, light NW winds,
and highs only in the mid to upper 70s (well below normal for
mid-June). Lows drop into the upper 50s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The upper-level pattern becomes more zonal with embedded
shortwaves moving through the flow. This will bring a break in the
active weather early in the week before rain chances increase
again mid to late week. Tuesday through Wednesday will see a
warming trend with highs returning to the mid and upper 80s. Rain
chances remain low early Tuesday but will gradually increase
Wednesday as shortwave energy approaches. Diurnally driven storms
will be possible, especially across the Plateau.

Thursday through Friday will see more widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances as moisture increases ahead of another
frontal system. Models suggest periodic heavy rainfall, with a low
end risk for strong to severe storms.

Heading into the weekend, some uncertainty remains, but overall
pattern favors at least scattered storm chances through each
afternoon. Temperatures near seasonal norms look likely with
highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Convection is building to the west of BNA and MQY as a cold front
approaches from the northeast. Expect impacts at these terminals
through ~20z which includes brief reduction in cig/vis with
rainfall and perhaps a wind gust. Activity will move east toward
SRB and CSV thereafter.

As FROPA occurs expect a wind shift to NW at 7-12 kts through the
early evening with brief periods of MVFR cigs. Conditions improve
mid to late evening as drier air filters in and sky cover
decreases. MVFR cigs could persist at SRB and CSV through the
early morning hours. Winds will be light, N to NW tomorrow with
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  81  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    59  78  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     59  76  53  77 /  60  10   0   0
Columbia       62  80  57  82 /  30   0   0   0
Cookeville     60  77  55  79 /  60  10   0   0
Jamestown      58  76  53  78 /  60  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   62  79  58  81 /  40   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   63  81  58  83 /  40   0   0   0
Waverly        61  79  56  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Sizemore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
142 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

TNZ093-094-141930-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-
142 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 142 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Collinwood, or 11 miles south of Waynesboro, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Loretto, Collinwood, St. Joseph, Ethridge, Leoma,
Westpoint, Iron City, and Cypress Inn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8798 3529 8776 3534 8722 3530 8721
      3529 8723 3528 8721 3517 8722 3515 8720
      3512 8720 3512 8722 3500 8722
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 266DEG 39KT 3516 8771

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
146 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

TNZ027-059-062-141930-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-
146 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES THROUGH 230
PM CDT...

At 146 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Franklin, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Nolensville, Forest Hills,
Oak Hill, Antioch, Leipers Fork, and Triune.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 59 and 78.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 54 and 72.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 30 and 48, and between mile
markers 59 and 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8640 3575 8669 3591 8706 3612 8673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 290DEG 23KT 3597 8687

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CC