Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Unsettled weather over the weekend with multiple rounds of
  thunderstorms. Highest chances will be this evening into the
  overnight hours, and again Sunday late morning into the
  afternoon.

- Low to medium chance for strong storms through the weekend,
  strong wind gusts will be the main concern along with heavy
  rain.

- A break in the showers and storms will start the work week, but
  the active and wet pattern will return for the second half of
  the week with additional showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

CAMs continue to struggle on timing of showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend, but they all agree that a cluster of stronger
thunderstorms will impact the mid state this evening into the
overnight hours, and a lower chance Sunday afternoon. Largely
zonal pattern aloft is keeping more widespread chances for storms
at bay, but subtle shortwaves are what's driving the increased
chances late this afternoon through Sunday. The first wave will
race eastward from MO into the OH valley, and right now CAM
consensus is mid evening arrival of a cluster of stronger storms
with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the main threats. Low
confidence on how far east the storms will make it, but enough
instability is in place to carry them at least past I-65, but all
CAMs seem to want to weaken the storms as they approach the
Plateau. There may be a lull in activity Sunday morning before
daytime heating and the next shortwave can kick off additional
showers and storms mid day through the afternoon Sunday. Damaging
winds and heavy rainfall would remain the threats, and higher PWAT
values will allow for flooding potential, especially in areas that
see multiple rounds of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A break in the showers and storms will start the work week as most
models have showers and storms to our north and south with a broad
trough overhead. But, shortwaves embedded within the upper flow
will dig the trough further south, and allow for storms to return
starting Wednesday afternoon. The active pattern will continue,
with even low chances for more strong to severe storms Wednesday
and Thursday. Still too early to call on timing or intensity but
this active pattern will continue regardless. There could be
another break in widespread showers and storms Friday and
Saturday, with mainly just a diurnal threat for storms, but long
term models continue to show high amounts of QPF, suggesting that
the overall wet pattern will persist into the last week of June.
Staying in this zonal/broad trough pattern with embedded
shortwaves will keep showers and storms in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Cu is sct to bkn across Middle Tennessee currently but bases have
lift to VFR thresholds regardless of coverage now. Winds remain
light and SW. Sct convection is possible near CKV late afternoon.

Evening and overnight convection will be the main issue for the
TAF period. Confidence is low on exact timing and coverage, so
PROB30s remain in place for each TAF site with a window of
greatest confidence at this time. MVFR cigs are expected overnight
into early/mid tomorrow morning.

A cold front will move through the area tomorrow which will bring
increasing SW winds that will veer to W to NW with time with
higher gusts. Sct convection is forecast along and ahead of the
front as well and this is only in the time frame of the 30-hr BNA
TAF right now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  87  63  81 /  60  70  20   0
Clarksville    72  83  59  78 /  80  70   0   0
Crossville     68  82  59  76 /  40  80  50   0
Columbia       72  87  62  80 /  50  70  20   0
Cookeville     70  83  60  77 /  60  80  40   0
Jamestown      67  83  58  77 /  50  90  40   0
Lawrenceburg   72  86  62  79 /  50  70  30   0
Murfreesboro   72  88  62  81 /  50  80  30   0
Waverly        71  84  60  79 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Sizemore