Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
630 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- There are medium to high rain chances this evening with a low
  severe weather risk. Primary threats with any stronger storms
  will be damaging winds and hail.

- High rain chances return Saturday afternoon and evening. No
  severe weather is currently expected.

- Temperatures will cool Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A few light showers have been ongoing this morning as a shortwave
passes to the north. These showers have been very light and non-
impactful, and given dry air we still have to overcome, these
showers may not be amounting to much more than sprinkles. This
activity should dissipate into the early afternoon, and with some
breaks in the clouds, that will help build instability across the
area. A more pronounced shortwave then tracks through the area
late this afternoon into the evening, and CAMs continue to show a
cluster of storms moving into Middle TN from the west. Latest CAM
runs show these storms not making it to the TN River until around
6-7pm, which is good news as instability will be falling off due
to the loss of daytime heating. Main threat with these storms will
be damaging winds with steep mid-level lapse rates also allowing
for a hail threat. Do anticipate that these storms will be
weakening as they move east through Middle TN and instability
lessens. Main time frame to watch for severe potential will be
6-10pm with the severe potential decreasing east of I-65.

Ridging builds over the area Friday, allowing for a much warmer day
as highs warm well into the 80s. There does remain a low rain and
thunderstorm chance Friday afternoon, mainly across the northwest,
but most of the area should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

On Saturday, another trough will be taking shape to our west, and
this one has a strong cold front associated with it. As this system
moves through, it will result in high rain chances across the area.
Models continue to suggest that most of the activity will be behind
the front. That's more good news as it means that our severe weather
threat is very low, and even the threat for lightning may be low as
well. While we need this rain, the rain today and into Saturday
won't amount to much. Between the two systems, rain amounts are
still expected to be below one inch with low probabilities of 10-20%
of getting more than one inch. So enough rain to get the ground wet,
but not enough to start putting a dent in the severe drought that
has now developed across most of Middle TN.

Behind Saturday's cold front, temperatures will cool with highs on
Sunday in the 60s and then warming into the 70s Monday and Tuesday.
But temperatures will climb back into the low-80s by the middle of
next week. As far as rain goes, there doesn't look to be much of it
as we head into next week as the pattern favors only low rain
chances toward the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A line of showers and storms will impact terminals over the next
6 to 8 hours. Radar trends show this line is quickly weakening,
and with limited instability over BNA, have only mentioned -RA at
the terminal. Gusts up to 30 kts will be possible as the line
pushes through. High-res models continue to show the line fizzling
out before reaching SRB and CSV, so PROB30 for -SHRA remains in
the taf. Beyond this, VFR conditions will prevail with light
southerly winds and SCT mid to high level clouds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  88  68  83 /  60  10  10  70
Clarksville    60  87  67  78 /  60  10  40  80
Crossville     55  83  61  81 /  50  10  10  40
Columbia       59  88  66  82 /  60  10  10  60
Cookeville     58  83  65  81 /  40  10  10  50
Jamestown      55  83  62  81 /  50  10  10  50
Lawrenceburg   59  86  65  82 /  60  10  10  50
Murfreesboro   58  88  66  83 /  60  10  10  60
Waverly        60  88  67  78 /  60  10  30  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Baggett

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
646 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

TNZ025-026-057-059-060-170030-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Maury TN-Cheatham TN-
646 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DICKSON...NORTH CENTRAL
MAURY...NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON...SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM AND NORTHERN
HICKMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 645 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McEwen, or 8 miles southeast of Waverly, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Centerville, White Bluff, Kingston Springs, Burns, Fairview,
Bon Aqua, Pinewood, Primm Springs, Lyles, and Nunnelly.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 155 and 158, and between mile
markers 161 and 186.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8761 3595 8756 3597 8753 3599 8753
      3602 8755 3610 8754 3617 8756 3606 8704
      3604 8704 3605 8705 3600 8704 3573 8710
      3592 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 288DEG 47KT 3603 8765

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mueller

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
657 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Cumberland Furnace      36.27N 87.36W
04/16/2026                   Dickson            TN   Amateur Radio

            Power outages in Cumberland Furnace. Time
            estimated with radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
701 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

TNZ007-008-170045-
Robertson TN-Sumner TN-
701 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SUMNER AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cross Plains, or 7 miles east of Springfield, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Springfield, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, White House,
Millersville, Greenbrier, Coopertown, Westmoreland, Ridgetop, Cross
Plains, Portland, Pleasant View, Orlinda, Adams, Cedar Hill,
Mitchellville, Black Jack, Bethpage, and Oak Grove.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 101 and 121.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 23 and 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8620 3650 8622 3645 8624 3645 8627
      3636 8627 3631 8636 3633 8635 3636 8637
      3631 8639 3634 8644 3628 8652 3632 8655
      3625 8659 3626 8664 3641 8675 3635 8682
      3639 8689 3637 8699 3642 8706 3664 8704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 277DEG 48KT 3653 8674

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mueller

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