Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1243 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- There are medium to high rain chances this evening with a low
  severe weather risk. Primary threats with any stronger storms
  will be damaging winds and hail.

- High rain chances return Saturday afternoon and evening. No
  severe weather is currently expected.

- Temperatures will cool Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A few light showers have been ongoing this morning as a shortwave
passes to the north. These showers have been very light and non-
impactful, and given dry air we still have to overcome, these
showers may not be amounting to much more than sprinkles. This
activity should dissipate into the early afternoon, and with some
breaks in the clouds, that will help build instability across the
area. A more pronounced shortwave then tracks through the area
late this afternoon into the evening, and CAMs continue to show a
cluster of storms moving into Middle TN from the west. Latest CAM
runs show these storms not making it to the TN River until around
6-7pm, which is good news as instability will be falling off due
to the loss of daytime heating. Main threat with these storms will
be damaging winds with steep mid-level lapse rates also allowing
for a hail threat. Do anticipate that these storms will be
weakening as they move east through Middle TN and instability
lessens. Main time frame to watch for severe potential will be
6-10pm with the severe potential decreasing east of I-65.

Ridging builds over the area Friday, allowing for a much warmer day
as highs warm well into the 80s. There does remain a low rain and
thunderstorm chance Friday afternoon, mainly across the northwest,
but most of the area should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

On Saturday, another trough will be taking shape to our west, and
this one has a strong cold front associated with it. As this system
moves through, it will result in high rain chances across the area.
Models continue to suggest that most of the activity will be behind
the front. That's more good news as it means that our severe weather
threat is very low, and even the threat for lightning may be low as
well. While we need this rain, the rain today and into Saturday
won't amount to much. Between the two systems, rain amounts are
still expected to be below one inch with low probabilities of 10-20%
of getting more than one inch. So enough rain to get the ground wet,
but not enough to start putting a dent in the severe drought that
has now developed across most of Middle TN.

Behind Saturday's cold front, temperatures will cool with highs on
Sunday in the 60s and then warming into the 70s Monday and Tuesday.
But temperatures will climb back into the low-80s by the middle of
next week. As far as rain goes, there doesn't look to be much of it
as we head into next week as the pattern favors only low rain
chances toward the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Expect VFR wx through the afternoon across Middle Tennessee, with
the possible exception of -SHRA that may impact KCSV and KSRB
closer to 00Z. A surface boundary is making its way across the mid
state this afternoon, but the most impactful weather looks to
hold off until after 00Z as a shortwave races across the mid state
with an MCS-like complex potentially affecting some of the
terminals during the evening. Storms look to weaken as they head
eastward through the mid state, and we've gone with just -SHRA at
KCSV and KSRB during the late evening as the MCS should be played
out by then. Look for some radiation fog mainly along the
Cumberland Plateau during the overnight and early morning period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  88  68  83 /  60  10  10  70
Clarksville    60  87  67  78 /  60  10  40  80
Crossville     55  83  61  81 /  50  10  10  40
Columbia       59  88  66  82 /  60  10  10  60
Cookeville     58  83  65  81 /  40  10  10  50
Jamestown      55  83  62  81 /  50  10  10  50
Lawrenceburg   59  86  65  82 /  60  10  10  50
Murfreesboro   58  88  66  83 /  60  10  10  60
Waverly        60  88  67  78 /  60  10  30  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Rose