Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1219 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- High chances for showers and storms this afternoon and evening.
  Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms that could
  produce small hail or a damaging wind gust.

- Cooler, more seasonal temperatures expected Sunday through
  Tuesday.

- Warm, dry weather Wednesday through late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Some showers are just working into northwestern Stewart County at
this hour with more activity back in West Tennessee. Currently,
there isn't any lightning in Tennessee. The cold front is still back
in Arkansas and Missouri. The front will progress eastward through
the afternoon with showers and embedded storms ahead of it. The
overall thinking regarding the low severe potential has not changed.
Models show 500-750 J/kg of mlCAPE ahead of the line of showers and
storms with values dropping through the evening. Some storms have a
low potential to produce some gusty winds and small hail. Otherwise,
the front will bring some beneficial rain to the area. Rainfall
totals will generally be around 0.5-1.0" through Sunday morning.
Ahead of the rain, SSW winds will be gusty. We've seen some gusts
between 30-35 mph and I expect this to continue this afternoon prior
to the line of showers and storms.

Most of the area will be dry by sunrise on Sunday, but there is a
low chance of a couple lingering showers along the plateau early in
the morning. Sunday will be cooler with highs in the 60s and 10-15
mph NW winds. Lows will drop into the 30s for most of the area
Sunday night with some patchy frost possible along the plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer on Monday with plenty
of sunshine. A clipper system will send a shot of cooler air into
the area Monday night which will knock temperatures down about 5
degrees on Tuesday. Lows along the plateau will be in the mid to
upper 30s Wednesday morning with a low chance of some scattered
frost again. We will begin a prolonged warming trend on Wednesday
with southerly flow returning along with some upper riding
influences. The forecast continues to look dry once we get past
today and tonight's showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Showers and storms are on our doorstep. This will bring lowered
cigs and vis starting at 19Z at CKV, 21-22Z at BNA/MQY and after
00Z for SRB/CSV. Will start with MVFR, but all will drop to IFR
for several hours this evening before returning to VFR by 12-13Z.
Gusty winds will continue to be an issue. Gusts of 25-30 kts will
be typical with an occasional gust to 35 kts ahead of the rain.
Winds will shift to the northwest as the front passes this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      48  66  41  70 / 100   0   0   0
Clarksville    45  64  40  69 /  80   0   0   0
Crossville     46  60  36  63 / 100  40   0   0
Columbia       46  64  38  68 / 100   0   0   0
Cookeville     46  60  38  64 / 100  20   0   0
Jamestown      44  60  36  63 / 100  30   0   0
Lawrenceburg   46  64  39  68 / 100  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   46  64  38  68 / 100  10   0   0
Waverly        44  64  40  70 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Unger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
243 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

TNZ024>026-042030-
Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Cheatham TN-
243 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DICKSON...CENTRAL
CHEATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McEwen, or 12 miles east of Waverly, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland City, McEwen, Pleasant View, Charlotte, Vanleer, and Cheatham
Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 8698 3623 8699 3604 8761 3617 8767
      3620 8761 3618 8757 3624 8753 3632 8736
      3632 8729 3635 8728 3636 8726 3637 8725
      3642 8715 3644 8712
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 244DEG 38KT 3615 8758

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

TNZ059-060-042115-
Williamson TN-Maury TN-
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MAURY AND CENTRAL
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Columbia, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Brentwood, Spring Hill, Nolensville, Thompson's Station,
Santa Fe, and Leipers Fork.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 56 and 74.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 15 and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 8715 3572 8725 3573 8723 3577 8723
      3605 8688 3603 8678 3601 8673 3601 8671
      3598 8667 3597 8662 3594 8662 3592 8663
      3590 8662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 231DEG 35KT 3572 8714

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
343 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

TNZ007-008-026-027-042130-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Sumner TN-
343 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...CENTRAL
SUMNER...EAST CENTRAL CHEATHAM AND SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 343 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Joelton, or 9 miles south of Springfield, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, White House, Millersville,
Greenbrier, Coopertown, Ridgetop, Cross Plains, Joelton, Cottontown,
and Bledsoe Creek State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 96 and 110.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 29 and 39.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 8634 3636 8636 3636 8637 3633 8639
      3633 8642 3634 8643 3634 8644 3633 8647
      3632 8654 3632 8656 3627 8694 3639 8697
      3659 8644
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 252DEG 34KT 3636 8688

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
411 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

TNZ027-028-059-062-042200-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-
411 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
WILSON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Franklin, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Lebanon, Hendersonville, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne,
Mount Juliet, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Hermitage, Rural
Hill, Antioch, Belinda City, Green Hill, Percy Priest Lake, and
Gladeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 214 and 233.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 66 and 79.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 52 and 69.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 61 and 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8654 3628 8653 3628 8652 3629 8651
      3608 8623 3584 8674 3597 8690 3625 8661
      3625 8659 3626 8657 3629 8656 3631 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 233DEG 28KT 3593 8678

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
420 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

TNZ008-042200-
Sumner TN-
420 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 420 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Portland, or 11 miles north of Gallatin, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Westmoreland, Portland, and Oak Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8621 3655 8622 3646 8652 3656 8658
      3665 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 241DEG 34KT 3654 8650

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

27