Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
658 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Non-thunderstorm wind gusts around 45 mph will continue
  tonight.

- A line of severe storms will move through tonight with potential
  for widespread damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. There is a
  medium tornado threat.

- Temperatures will plummet Monday. Light snow showers will be
  possible, mainly for the Plateau where a light dusting may occur
  on grassy areas. A hard freeze will occur Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Initial look at 00Z upper air data shows cap still in place over
Mid TN with very strong winds and strong wind shear. Looking to
west, it appears that isolated cells that have been forming out
ahead of main line have not really taken off. It appears the cells
will congeal into the main line. The timing of this main line is
still generally on track with our timing graphic issued early on
website and socials, with storms reaching TN river around 8 PM.
Otherwise, our messages remain the same with potential for
widespread damaging winds. SPC has been very busy this evening,
but we would expect a tornado watch for our area coming out
shortly after 7 PM CDT.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

As we're nearing the onset of storms, this is a good time to talk
about what the near-storm environment looks like. Soundings
reveal there is a large capping inversion still holding strong
around 750mb and this is good because it's keeping a lid on things
and preventing isolated storms from developing. With that being
said, we are seeing an increased chance for this cap to
potentially break earlier and a few storms develop out ahead of
the main line this evening. High-res models are pinging on this
happening mostly between the MS and TN Rivers, but do show a few
cells trying develop over our western-most counties. Given how
strong the cap is right now, the likelihood of this occuring
remains low, but we are watching it closely. If discrete cells pop
out ahead of the main line, they will carry a higher tornado
threat. Dew points are currently running on the low side with most
areas in the low to mid 50s. The HRRR still shows a sharp
advection of dews near 60 degrees right along the leading edge of
the line tonight that will fuel instability, so we will be keeping
a close watch on obs to see when moisture starts to increase.

Overall, our message remains the same for tonight's storms: damaging
straight-line winds potentially in excess of 75 mph are possible
as well as tornadoes embedded within the line.

For non-thunderstorm winds, the low-level jet will continue to
strengthen and will reach speeds up to just over 70 kts this
evening out ahead of the main line of storms. This could result
in gusts of over 50 mph, so please be sure you've secured any
loose outdoor items if you haven't already.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

At 15Z, a deep low is centered near the IA/MO/IL confluence with a
strong cold front trailing south-southwestward from the surface
low, which places it just west of the Ozarks. Very little has
changed with the forecast since mid-day yesterday. However, one
changed we have noted is that the 10% tornado probability has been
pulled farther west, so that now only portions of western Middle
Tennessee are included, with the 5% risk area now covering a
greater portion of the mid state. Also, there is now a low hail
risk over extreme western and southwestern Middle Tennessee. But
our overall messaging has not changed. The HRRR continues to
develop a line of convection right along the frontal boundary as
it comes through Middle Tennessee this evening. Due to a lack of
deep instability, there appears to be little chance for any
convective development ahead of the cold front/squall line. We
expect the initial storms to enter Middle Tennessee between
01-02Z, reach the Nashville Metro Area between 03-04Z, and finally
arrive in Crossville around 06Z. The forecast soundings just
ahead of the convective line show a "tall, thin" CAPE, with the
CAPE gradually eroding as the storms propagate eastward and we
find ourselves farther removed from daytime heating. There will be
pronounced low-level wind shear across all of Middle Tennessee
for the duration. And 700-500 mb lapse rates are consistently
7.0C/km or greater throughout the evening. The lack of a "fatter"
CAPE precludes any sort of meaningful hail risk. So that leaves us
with a damaging wind and tornado threat owing to the modest
instability and high helicities. Fortunately, the severe risk for
any single location will be relatively short-lived and confined to
the convective line itself. Once the storms have passed, we can
expect some lingering showers and a sharp temperature drop. By
tomorrow morning, readings across the region will be in the low to
mid 30s, and daytime temperatures tomorrow won't even make it to
40 degrees in some areas. This is going to be quite shocking, to
say the least. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly likely
that we will experience some sort of light snowfall accumulation
on Monday. While most locations will only receive a dusting up to
1/2", some spots on the Cumberland Plateau might actually see 1".
At this time, we are not planning any sort of Winter Weather
Advisory, but this will be looked at more closely once we have
dealt with this evening's severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Fortunately, there are no precipitation chances in the forecast
beyond Monday, and that takes us through next Sunday night. As far
as temperatures go, tomorrow night's lows are going to represent
the nadir in this brief but impactful cold snap. We're going to
wake up Tuesday morning to readings in the upper teens to low
20s. Once we get past Tuesday morning, though, temperatures will
warm up quickly so that we'll get back to our preferred springtime
regime by Thursday, and the weather next weekend looks to be
positively spectacular.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Passage of a strong cold front will bring widespread gusty winds
over 35KT with enhanced severe gusts along a thunderstorm squall
line. Timing of the squall line is based on latest HRRR trends at
each terminal. Post frontal winds will be WNW with frequent gusts
25-30KT. Scattered showers and MVFR cigs will follow the front
late night with improvement to mainly VFR cigs daytime Monday.
Light snow showers will occur at CSV Monday, but cig/vsby impacts
will be brief. Other terminals may see brief flurries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      35  41  23  43 / 100  20   0   0
Clarksville    32  39  22  41 / 100  20  10   0
Crossville     32  40  19  35 / 100  50  10   0
Columbia       32  41  22  43 / 100  20   0   0
Cookeville     33  38  22  36 / 100  40  10   0
Jamestown      31  39  19  35 / 100  50  10   0
Lawrenceburg   32  40  23  42 / 100  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   34  41  23  41 / 100  30   0   0
Waverly        31  39  22  41 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
943 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WSW Waverly           36.08N 87.84W
03/15/2026  E51 MPH          Humphreys          TN   Mesonet

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
949 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     Hail             7 WSW Dickson           36.03N 87.49W
03/15/2026  E1.50 Inch       Dickson            TN   Dept of Highways

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
950 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     Hail             8 SE Mcewen             36.02N 87.55W
03/15/2026  E2.00 Inch       Dickson            TN   Amateur Radio

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
956 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     Hail             7 SE Mcewen             36.03N 87.55W
03/15/2026  M1.00 Inch       Dickson            TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1001 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     Hail             2 WNW Dickson           36.08N 87.41W
03/15/2026  E1.50 Inch       Dickson            TN   Public

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1004 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Hail             1 W Dickson             36.08N 87.39W
03/15/2026  E1.25 Inch       Dickson            TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&