Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms late tonight
  into early Thursday morning along and north of I-40. Damaging
  winds and heavy rain are the main concerns.

- Scattered thunderstorms develop again in the afternoon and
  evening with a low severe weather threat for areas south of
  I-40.

- Near normal temperatures are expected this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Short range models have been a complete mess handling upstream
storms over MO and this has complicated our storm forecast for
tonight. Latest trends bring storms in later than our previous
forecast, perhaps as late as 2 or 3 AM CDT in our northwest. How
far south storms develop is also a bit uncertain, but even if the
main MCS tracks up in KY, it should still push some outflow storms
down into the Mid State. Our far southern counties may not see
any rain through the night.

A severe risk continues with the storms, mainly damaging wind gusts.
A brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out, but storms should be
outflow dominant with relatively stable boundary conditions here
compared to upstream areas. Local heavy rain will be a concern,
mainly in the northwest.

Pockets of showers and storms will linger into the morning as a
diffuse frontal zone approaches the area. Much of midday will be
rain-free. Then, after the atmosphere recovers, additional
scattered storms will form along the weak frontal zone as another
impulse crosses the area. This time the greatest severe storm and
heavy rain potential will be located across our southern and
Plateau counties. Local damaging wind gusts will be the concern
in the afternoon as capes climb above 2000 with dcape values over
1k.

Some additional shortwave energy will cross the area Thursday and
Friday with a low chance for more showers and storms, mainly south
and Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Slightly less humid air will move in with temperatures staying
around normal through the weekend and into early next week. Rain
chances look very low for the weekend. The upper high will push
eastward early next week which means temperatures and humidity
will start to creep up toward mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Conditions will deteriorate into this morning, with all sites
seeing -TSRA through this morning. Afterwards, winds will begin to
turn northerly, with ceilings rising. FG will become an issue
after 00z on the 21st, slowly settling in as winds go calm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  69  90  65 /  40  30  10   0
Clarksville    89  70  89  66 /  50  10   0   0
Crossville     86  66  84  63 /  50  30  30   0
Columbia       93  70  91  67 /  40  30   0   0
Cookeville     86  68  85  65 /  60  30  20   0
Jamestown      85  67  84  64 /  60  40  30   0
Lawrenceburg   92  69  89  66 /  40  30  10   0
Murfreesboro   93  70  91  67 /  40  40  10   0
Waverly        90  70  89  67 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Holley