Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
745 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 738 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- There is a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe weather through
  tonight. Main impacts are damaging winds and flash flooding.

- Cooler and drier conditions arrive Wednesday and continue
  through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 738 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Quick update for this evening revolves around current thunderstorms
now moving into our northern Middle TN counties. These storms
will continue to move southward over the next several hours and
present a damaging wind gust threat of 60+ mph and heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding in several areas. While the tornado
threat has diminished, please don't sleep on these storms. Radar
is suggesting wind speeds capable of dropping large trees and
limbs which can cause plenty of damage -- as well as rainfall
rates on the order of 3 to 4 inches an hour. If you go under a
severe thunderstorm warning, please treat it as you would a
tornado warning and take proper shelter.

Storm threat should end by midnight leaving light to moderate rain
across our southern counties into the early morning hours. Flash
flood watch continues until 7 am for many of our mid-state
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A surface front is moving south through Missouri into central
Illinois this morning ahead of a shortwave in the northwest upper
flow. The combination of lift and the ample instability and
moisture at the surface will allow storms to fire across southern
Indiana and Ohio over the next couple of hours. Some activity is
already bubbling across our northeastern counties and some heavy
downpours can't be ruled out this afternoon, but the main severe
concern will be with the activity coming out of Kentucky this
evening as bulk shear increases. Damaging winds will be the main
severe storm threat this evening and into early Wednesday along
with a very low risk of a tornado along the TN/KY state line.
Instability and storm organization will decrease the further
storms move south and the deeper we get into the overnight hours.
The window of greatest severe potential looks like 7 PM to around
1 AM.

In addition to the severe threat, some instances of flash flooding
will be a threat. PWAT values are around 1.9-2" across Middle
Tennessee, so very high rain rates can be expected with storms
today and tonight. HREF and associated CAMs show pockets of 2" of
rain with 90th percentile values showing the potential for over 4"
in isolated areas. With the wet July we've had so far, this would
be sufficient for flash flooding in those areas. The HREF shows
the higher probabilities of over 2" and higher 90th percentile
values along and east of I-65. A Flood Watch is in effect through
12z Wednesday.

By 12z Wednesday, the surface front will be draped across the area
from SW to NE. South of the surface front, additional showers and
storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon along the plateau.
Shear will be lower than tonight, so I don't expect any severe
activity Wednesday afternoon. Behind the front, lower dew points
will filter in from the northwest through the day and into
Wednesday night. The surface front will be through the entire area
by Wednesday night which will usher in a very pleasant night with
low dropping into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

To start the long term period, we will be in the nicest airmass
we've had so far this summer. Dew points on Thursday will be in the
low to mid 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s. Friday will be
similar but a couple degrees warmer. A shortwave will ride northwest
upper flow and approach the area Friday night into Saturday which
will reintroduce some low to medium rain chances. Temperatures will
creep up over the weekend with the possibility of a couple more
shortwaves bringing additional storm storms chances going into early
next week. There is some uncertainty of how far east ridging
influences pushes which will affect our rain chances and
temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The first 6 hours of this TAF cycle will be riddled with TS and
gusty winds as a broken line of thunderstorms moves into TN from
the north. These should come to an end for all terminals by 05-06Z
this evening and while cats will improve after the storms for
CKV/BNA/MQY, MVFR cigs will return around sunrise Wednesday at
BNA/MQY. CSV/SRB will bear the brunt of longer MVFR cigs through
the night and sticking around after storms until lunchtime on
Wednesday. Winds outside of storms will be light and we will see a
shift to the northwest/north after storms pass. With storms, winds
may be gusty at times with northwest to north gusts of 30 to 40
kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  87  65  83 /  80  10   0   0
Clarksville    70  86  62  83 /  50   0   0   0
Crossville     69  82  60  80 /  80  60  30  20
Columbia       73  88  65  84 /  80  20   0   0
Cookeville     71  84  63  81 /  80  30  10   0
Jamestown      69  82  60  80 /  90  40  10   0
Lawrenceburg   73  86  65  83 /  70  30  10  10
Murfreesboro   73  88  65  84 /  70  20   0   0
Waverly        71  86  63  83 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for TNZ008>011-024>034-
056>066-075-077-078-080-093>095.

&&

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Unger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
744 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW Dover             36.49N 87.89W
07/21/2026                   Stewart            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down blocking road on Donelson Parkway
            (Hwy 79) west of Dover.

&&

CC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
757 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW White House       36.47N 86.67W
07/21/2026                   Robertson          TN   Emergency Mngr

            Several roads flooded in White House.

&&

SWU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
758 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Orlinda             36.60N 86.72W
07/21/2026                   Robertson          TN   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple trees down in Orlinda, Barren
            Plains and Cross Plains area.

&&

SWU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
808 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     Flash Flood      Portland                36.59N 86.52W
07/21/2026                   Sumner             TN   Amateur Radio

            1.5 to 3 inches of water over the North
            Harris Road in Portland, TN.

&&

SWU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
812 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     Flash Flood      Springfield             36.50N 86.88W
07/21/2026                   Robertson          TN   Trained Spotter

            2 inches in the last 30 minutes. Ditches and
            creeks full.

&&

SWU