Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
635 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Awesome weekend ahead with afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above
  normal and no rain.

- Medium chance for rain Sunday night into Monday with an
  unsettled weather pattern through mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

The surface boundary that brought widespread rain to Middle
Tennessee last night and earlier today has slipped to our south.
There are still a few showers ongoing over northern Alabama, and
it is still possible that a stray shower or two could slip across
the state line into extreme southern Middle Tennessee this evening,
but otherwise, we can look forward to decreasing cloudiness
across the mid state, with overnight lows spanning the 30s to near
40 degrees. Tomorrow looks to be positively splendid, with
afternoon temperatures reaching the 60s, mostly sunny skies and
generally light wind. You won't get any better than that for late
February.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1051 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A quick look at observations across the area show our current cold
front is almost completely through the area. The best news is
the rain is gone. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions remain and
that should improve this afternoon. Many can expect the sun come
out. Afternoon highs should top out in a luke-warm mid 50s (north)
to mid 60s (south) with the coolest morning temperatures of this
forecast package being tomorrow morning in the 30s. As far as the
rain, that will be it for a couple of days. Friday and Saturday
should be gloriously sunny to partly cloudy with highs 10 to 15
degrees above normal -- very spring-like.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1051 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Our next chance of precip arrives on Sunday and at this point, it
likely won't be until Sunday night. As part of a mid-level wave
that will come out of the central Plains on Sunday afternoon, at
least a medium chance of showers will encompass the region. With
northeasterly boundary layer flow in place and the time of year,
it's worth taking a peek at whether there's *any* chance of wintry
precip. Interestingly enough, the LREF and NBM show a 0-5% chance
of getting 1 inch or more Sunday night and no, it's not April
1st. So, while I'm saying there's a chance, there really isn't
one. There's a very high chance rain Sunday night into Monday
will remain all liquid. What does begin is what looks to be a
couple of days of unsettled weather across the region. There's at
least a low chance of showers on Tuesday and then we start looking
at a second-half-of-the-week system that both the GFS and Euro
are showing in the center of the country. Synoptically, it's a
dynamic system, but it may not reach us in that form as the front
associated with it may fizzle out as the parent low pulls away.
That's a week away, though. For now, let's enjoy these next couple
of awesome weather days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

While VFR conditions prevail across most of Middle TN, MVFR
cigs are still impacting CSV and SRB where cloud cover is slowly
eroding away. Mostly clear skies will be in place overnight, but
this will lead to fog concerns. Highest probability for fog is at
CSV, but patchy fog is possible at the other TAF sites. Main time
period for fog is between 09Z and 14Z. Any fog will diminish early
Friday morning, leaving behind VFR conditions, clear skies, and
light northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      38  66  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    37  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     36  63  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       38  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     37  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      34  61  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   38  66  39  72 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   38  66  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        38  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements