Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Nashville, TN

736 
WGUS74 KOHX 192025
FFSOHX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
325 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TNC035-192035-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FF.W.0074.000000T0000Z-260919T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland TN-
325 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8494 3584 8476 3583 8477 3583 8478
      3582 8478 3582 8480 3578 8488 3577 8491
      3576 8492 3577 8492 3577 8493 3575 8500
      3581 8510 3588 8509

$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Very hot conditions with triple digit heat indices continue. A
  Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle
  Tennessee.

- Low rain chances mainly east of I-65 this weekend with a low
  chance for strong storms with gusty winds. Higher rain chances
  spread areawide Monday and Tuesday.

- Cooler air arrives next week with highs mid to late week in the
  upper 70s (Plateau) and mid 80s everywhere else in Middle TN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Hang on! Only a few more days of this gross, oppressive heat! High
pressure centered over Arklatex will continue to drive afternoon
high temperatures across most of Middle TN into the upper 90s and
close to triple digits today, tomorrow and Monday. If there's any
saving grace, it's the dew points. They're just high enough to
warrant continuing the Heat Advisory through tomorrow, but it could
be a whole lot worse. Look for Heat Index values of 105 to 107 in
the advisory area today and tomorrow. They do start to back off a
little on Monday, which should keep us from needing to extend the
advisory into the start of next week. As far as rain chances for the
rest of the weekend, we aren't centered under the high pressure.
This means subsidence won't be as strong here, especially on the
Plateau and across our southern counties. Because of this, low
chances (20-30%) for showers and storms will be present this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Severe risk is very low, but
with the heat the way it is, any storm that develops will carry a
low wind gust risk of 50-60 mph. Please keep this in mind if you
have outdoor plans in the above-mentioned areas through the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Ok! Now the good news. Relief from this heat is coming. On Monday,
the last official full day of summer, we'll maintain one more day of
well-above normal temperatures, but the ridge really starts to break
down. This means with the remaining heat, shower and storm chances
will be a little more widespread. I've taken a look at forecast
soundings on Monday and while not overly impressive, mid-level lapse
rates of mid 6's and high triple digit DCAPE values could spell at
least a low wind risk. This would match up with the current Day 3
Outlook, though I would say that even though the current Marginal
Risk is over the southeast half of the mid-state, any storms that
develop will carry a wind risk.

Tuesday. Fall starts at 7:04 pm CT and it's also the day we've all
been waiting for. Temperatures will begin backing off (low 90s/low
80s Plateau for highs) and additional, likely even more widespread
showers and storms will become possible. This is as a frontal
boundary approaches the mid-state. Forecast soundings are similar to
Monday, but as we get into the evening, deep layer shear values
increase to about 30 kts. Now, I'm not talking about a severe
weather outbreak or anything, but storms will be worth watching late
afternoon into the early evening. Relief will be felt on Tuesday,
that's for sure, but starting Wednesday, behind the frontal passage,
temperatures really take a dive. That doesn't mean 60s and 70s for
everyone (though the Plateau will see 70s), but the rest of Middle
TN will see afternoon highs right around normal for this time of the
year (mid-80s). Super excited for that, coupled with what looks like
dry conditions until late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A more active convective scheme is ongoing over the Plateau,
warranting PROB30s this afternoon for CSV and SRB. The surface
boundary is sitting just east of BNA, so did not include any
precip for the remaining sites this afternoon. Barring any direct
impacts from isolated TSRA, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. Variable winds this afternoon will settle into a light
southerly flow overnight, picking back up from the southwest
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  98  75  97 /   0  10  10  20
Clarksville    73  99  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     66  89  66  88 /  20  20  10  50
Columbia       72  99  72  98 /   0  20  10  20
Cookeville     70  92  70  91 /  20  20  10  30
Jamestown      68  89  68  88 /  20  20  20  40
Lawrenceburg   71  97  71  96 /  10  20  10  30
Murfreesboro   72  99  72  98 /  10  20  10  30
Waverly        74  97  73  95 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Dirkes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
156 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TNZ065-066-080-191915-
Cumberland TN-Van Buren TN-White TN-
156 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...
NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN AND SOUTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM
CDT...

At 156 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Spencer, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fall Creek Falls State Park and Indian Rock Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8492 3577 8493 3575 8502 3575 8503
      3577 8504 3576 8507 3577 8510 3577 8525
      3576 8527 3572 8527 3563 8535 3569 8542
      3585 8534 3579 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 286DEG 23KT 3575 8529

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dirkes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
157 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TNZ031-191930-
Jackson TN-
157 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM
CDT...

At 157 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Red Boiling Springs, or 8 miles northwest of
Gainesboro, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesboro, Whitleyville, and Cummins Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 8570 3647 8557 3640 8550 3629 8549
      3628 8551 3626 8551 3626 8553 3624 8553
      3623 8555 3622 8556 3623 8559 3622 8561
      3639 8583 3650 8581 3652 8577 3650 8575
      3650 8572 3652 8574 3652 8570
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 305DEG 14KT 3646 8574

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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