Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1002 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Dangerous heat expected through the weekend with triple digit
  heat indices west of the Cumberland Plateau.

- Low to medium thunderstorm chances primarily east of I-65 each
  afternoon and evening through Thursday. Stronger storms will be
  capable of damaging winds and heavy rain.

- Drier and even hotter conditions favored Friday through the
  weekend followed by some minor relief early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

High pressure continues building across the Southeast while
northwest flow aloft persists on the northern/western periphery of
the ridge. This keeps Middle TN in a somewhat awkward position:
hot and humid at the surface with enough mid-level support and
surface instability for diurnal convection, especially east of
I-65 and across the Plateau.

Wednesday will be another hot day. Highs mainly mid-90s west of
the Plateau, with dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 70s.
Heat index values are expected to reach 105-110 in many locations,
supporting continuation of the Heat Advisory. CAMs and short-term
model guidance continue to indicate the potential for an MCS or
organized cluster of storms to track south/southeast into the area
during the afternoon and evening, with the best chances east of
I-65. Sufficient DCAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and available
moisture support a conditional risk of damaging wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall with any stronger storms that do develop or
move into the region. Coverage is expected to remain scattered at
best; overall severe and flooding risk remains low but non-zero.
Any activity that does develop should diminish overnight.

Thursday looks similar but with the ridge axis shifting a bit
farther north. Highs again in the mid to upper 90s west of
Plateau with heat indices in the mid to upper 100s. Storm chances
trend a bit lower than Wednesday as the ridge influence
strengthens, but isolated to scattered storms remain possible,
again favored east of I-65 through the afternoon and evening.
Overnight lows both nights remain warm, generally in the mid to
upper 70s with little relief from the humidity.

Overall, the short-term features the dual hazards of heat and low
to medium thunderstorm risks. Confidence is higher in the heat
and less on exact storm coverage/timing given typical CAM
variability in this pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The upper ridge is expected to build more fully overhead through
the weekend, suppressing deeper moisture and convective chances
while allowing temperatures to climb further. Friday through
Sunday will be the hottest stretch. Highs are forecast in the
upper 90s for many locations west of the Plateau, with the NBM and
ensemble guidance showing a solid chance (around 80% for the
Nashville area) of reaching or exceeding 100 deg on Saturday and
Sunday. Prolonged heat indices of 105-110+ combined with warm
overnight lows in the 70s will produce major to extreme heat risk.
The Heat Advisory is already extending through Friday evening and
will likely need further extension or expansion depending on
trends.

Precipitation chances drop to low or near zero Friday through the
weekend as the ridge dominates. Any isolated activity would be
diurnally driven and limited. Early next week, guidance indicates
the ridge begins to shift or weaken as a boundary approaches from
the north, which should bring modest cooling and a return of
higher rain chances later in the period. Exact timing of the
pattern change remains somewhat uncertain beyond early next week,
but the multi-day heat wave itself has good support across
deterministic and ensemble guidance.

Residents should continue heat safety measures: limit outdoor
activity during peak heating hours, stay hydrated, check on
vulnerable individuals, and never leave people or pets in
vehicles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A very active convective scheme is ongoing over eastern Kentucky,
soon-to-be eastern Tennessee. Given the lack of verification with
the short term models and the stout eastward motion, opted to
leave all but SRB and CSV dry in the near term through tonight.
Will monitor for amendments later tonight if needed, especially
with the outflow boundary racing toward the TN/KY state lines. For
tomorrow afternoon, CAMs show a series of shortwaves pushing
through the airspace at multiple increments. As such, included
more PROB30s just to account for the uncertainty in intensity and
convective coverage at that time. VFR conditions prevail with
light S/SW winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  95  76  96 /  40  30  30  10
Clarksville    75  94  76  95 /  30  20  30   0
Crossville     70  86  71  87 /  60  40  30  30
Columbia       74  95  75  96 /  30  20  10  10
Cookeville     71  88  72  90 /  60  50  20  20
Jamestown      70  87  71  88 /  60  40  30  20
Lawrenceburg   73  92  74  93 /  30  30  20  10
Murfreesboro   74  94  75  95 /  40  30  30  10
Waverly        74  94  75  95 /  30  10  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>063-075-077-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Dirkes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
904 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

TNZ008>011-029>034-120300-
Putnam TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-
Clay TN-Jackson TN-Macon TN-Smith TN-
904 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OVERTON...PICKETT...NORTHERN
SMITH...JACKSON...SUMNER...CLAY...MACON...TROUSDALE...NORTHWESTERN
PUTNAM AND FENTRESS COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...

At 903 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles west of Albany to
12 miles north of Red Boiling Springs to near Memphis Junction.
Movement was south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lafayette, Livingston, Carthage, Jamestown, Celina,
Gainesboro, Byrdstown, Hartsville, Hendersonville, White House,
Algood, Westmoreland, Cross Plains, Red Boiling Springs, Portland,
South Carthage, Allardt, Mitchellville, and Moss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 8480 3628 8488 3618 8491 3623 8585
      3630 8614 3635 8623 3632 8625 3635 8627
      3633 8630 3636 8636 3634 8639 3636 8667
      3653 8664 3663 8656 3665 8651 3660 8479
      3640 8466 3639 8467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 352DEG 28KT 3667 8527 3670 8593 3690 8649

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dirkes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1124 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

TNZ028-062-063-075-077>080-120515-
Cannon TN-Rutherford TN-Wilson TN-Bedford TN-Coffee TN-Van Buren TN-
Grundy TN-Warren TN-
1124 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...WARREN...COFFEE...SOUTH CENTRAL WILSON...
NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD...GRUNDY AND CANNON COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM
CDT...

At 1123 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Woodbury, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, McMinnville, Manchester, Woodbury, Tullahoma,
Gruetli-Laager, Tracy City, Monteagle, Walterhill, Altamont,
Coalmont, Morrison, Palmer, Wartrace, Bell Buckle, Beersheba Springs,
Auburntown, Centertown, Normandy, and Viola.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 76 and 136.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 8587 3529 8592 3534 8603 3536 8616
      3534 8626 3541 8628 3539 8631 3587 8647
      3608 8620 3584 8589 3564 8534 3555 8546
      3553 8561 3549 8554 3538 8549 3532 8556
      3529 8571 3524 8569 3522 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 319DEG 33KT 3579 8611

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Cahill