Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms will
  form each day. Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will
  be the main concern.

- A few of the stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 40 to 50
  mph and frequent lightning. This could bring down a few limbs
  and cause scattered power outages. Widespread severe storms are
  not expected at this time.

- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to low 100s each
  day. Some areas could have heat index values topping 105 at
  times next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

It will be another hot, humid, and unsettled day with scattered
showers and storms. Over the past few days, our northwest
counties have not seen any storms, but today will be different. We
expect storms to be scattered across the entire area (40 to 60
percent chances) as a disturbance comes in from the west, working
with already unstable and humid conditions in place. The storm
parameters are very similar to the past several days. Not
everybody will get rain, but some of us will get too much in a
short period of time resulting in small pockets of flash flooding.
The stronger storms will contain 40 to 50 mph gusts and frequent
lightning. In summer storms, it is not uncommon to see a few
falling limbs and scattered power outages. Storms will pop up
quickly, so if you are outdoors and skies darken, it would be a
good idea to move to shelter quickly.

Storms will taper off this evening, but thanks to some energy from
the disturbance, maybe not quite as quickly as the past couple of
evenings. Areas that receive rain are likely to have late night
fog.

Coverage of storms will be a little less Sunday (20 to 50 percent),
but overall still the same scenario with pockets of local
flooding and gusty winds where storms occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Heading into Monday and Tuesday, upper level ridging will become
a little stronger as the big, hot ridge from out west bridges
across to the persistent Bermuda high. This will bump temperatures
up a little while slightly reducing shower and storm coverage (10
percent northwest to 40 percent southeast). Heat index values
look marginal for heat headlines, but caution is advised with Heat
Risk levels reaching level 3 out of 4 (Major) for most areas.
Heat headlines may be issued for some areas west of the Plateau
over the next couple of days if forecast data trend hotter.

Going through the week, it will stay hot and humid with daily
chances for showers and storms. There are some important model
differences that could impact the forecast late week. Looking at
LREF clustering data, we see big differences emerging between the
GFS and ECMWF groups. The GFS is trending toward a broad eastern
trough with the potential for increased storminess and less heat while
the ECMWF camp is building up the ridge across the southern
states and TN Valley. This would mean lower storm chances and
hotter conditions with temps well into the 90s. Time will tell,
but neither scenario would be terribly out of line for August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Convective cells are already developing across Middle Tennessee
and are expected to become more widespread as the afternoon
progresses. We've got TS/CBs in all the terminals during the peak-
heating period. Overnight, radiation fog is likely to be more
predominant, so we've got most of the terminals going down to
MVFR, except IFR at KCSV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  91  74  93 /  30  30  10  20
Clarksville    72  91  73  94 /  30  10   0  10
Crossville     67  85  68  86 /  20  60  20  50
Columbia       71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  40
Cookeville     70  86  70  88 /  20  50  10  40
Jamestown      68  86  69  87 /  20  40  10  40
Lawrenceburg   70  88  71  90 /  30  50  20  40
Murfreesboro   72  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  30
Waverly        72  90  72  92 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose