Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Scattered afternoon showers and storms each day. Low coverage
  (10 to 30 percent) west of I-65 with medium coverage (30 to 60
  percent) east of I-65.

- No severe weather is expected, but a few storms may produce
  gusty winds around 40 mph and heavy downpours causing local
  flash flooding.

- Heat Index values in the upper 90 to low 100s each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Yesterday's storms were focused along a low-level instability
gradient from Clay and Macon Counties down to Lawrence County.
Very heavy downpours created some localized spots of flash
flooding. We do not expect as much coverage today, but where
scattered storms occur, the threat for very heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will continue. A few spots could see 2 to 3
inches of rain while most of Middle Tennessee will get through the
day rain-free. Otherwise, typical August heat and humidity will
be in place with heat index values touching 100 for many areas
west of the Plateau.

The cutoff upper low that has lingered over our eastern counties
the past few days will continue to weaken today and eventually get
absorbed into prevailing winds north of our area Friday into
Saturday. Still, a band of deep moisture will linger as an impulse
comes our way from the west northwest. This will keep the
scattered shower and storm pattern going with lowest coverage west
and greater coverage east, especially Plateau. Probabilities for
rain and storms will peak Saturday, ranging from 30 percent west
to nearly 70 percent along the PLateau.

There will be enough instability for a few "strong" storms with
gusty winds of 40 or 50 mph, but we are not looking for widespread
or organized severe wx. The main concern will be heavy rain
leading to local flash flooding, like we saw in Lawrenceburg and
a few other spots yesterday when 2 to 3 inches of rain fell in a
short period.

The deep convection will continue to be mostly diurnal, with
showers and storms mostly ending with sunset. This will set the
stage for areas of late night fog, especially where rain falls.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Strong high pressure systems will be centered off to our
southeast and out to our west. We will experience relatively weaker
ridging in between. This means a very warm and humid pattern with
daily chances for showers and storms. It is nearly impossible to
be precise about rain hitting any particular location. Sadly, many
spots will not get much rain at all through the next week while
a few spots get too much. In general, Sunday through Tuesday look
like the days with lowest rain coverage (10 to 30 percent) and
hottest conditions as the 2 high pressure centers bridge together
across the area. The ridge will weaken over our area mid to late
week, allowing daily storm chances to increase (30 to 60 percent).

Most days will bring heat index values over 100 for areas west of
the Plateau. The hottest days, Sunday through Tuesday, could see
heat index values topping 105 for some spots. This will push the
Heat Risk level to 3 out of 4 for many areas and advisories may
be considered.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites this TAF
period. Could see some TSRA this afternoon, but it should be
confined to Plateau sites (CSV/SRB), though we could see a rogue
thunderstorm west of the Plateau. Winds will lessen tonight and
turn to be more southerly, before increasing between 5-10 knots in
the early morning hours and staying that way through the day
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  93  74  92 /  20  20  20  40
Clarksville    73  93  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
Crossville     66  84  68  84 /  20  60  50  70
Columbia       72  93  73  91 /  10  20  20  40
Cookeville     69  86  70  86 /  20  40  50  60
Jamestown      68  85  69  85 /  20  50  30  60
Lawrenceburg   71  90  72  89 /  20  20  20  40
Murfreesboro   72  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  50
Waverly        72  92  72  91 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Holley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

TNZ080-062015-
Van Buren TN-
246 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Spencer, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Spencer and Fall Creek Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 8541 3559 8558 3561 8559 3569 8560
      3571 8560 3573 8559 3574 8560 3581 8550
      3573 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 244DEG 7KT 3567 8556

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
310 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

TNZ008-028-029-062100-
Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-
310 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER...NORTH
CENTRAL WILSON AND NORTHWESTERN TROUSDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Gallatin. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Hartsville, Bledsoe Creek State Park, and Bethpage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 8633 3639 8652 3653 8641 3652 8626
      3640 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 238DEG 3KT 3643 8631

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

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