Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Nashville, TN

870 
WGUS74 KOHX 011304
FFSOHX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
804 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

TNC037-159-165-169-189-011345-
/O.CON.KOHX.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260801T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Davidson TN-Smith TN-Sumner TN-Trousdale TN-Wilson TN-
804 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT THIS
MORNING FOR CENTRAL DAVIDSON, NORTHWESTERN SMITH, SOUTHERN SUMNER,
TROUSDALE AND NORTHERN WILSON COUNTIES...

At 804 AM CDT, Doppler radar and rain gauges indicated thunderstorms
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches
of rain have fallen. Rainfall is now tapering off or will soon end.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Gallatin, Lebanon, Nashville, Hartsville, Madison, Hendersonville,
  Mount Juliet, Goodlettsville, Belle Meade, Lakewood, Belinda City,
  Hermitage, Old Hickory, Berry Hill, Green Hill, Bledsoe Creek State
  Park, Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area, Whites Creek and Dixon
  Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8693 3643 8648 3645 8617 3644 8617
      3644 8610 3638 8602 3623 8607 3617 8635
      3610 8688

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Rose

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- There are medium to high chances for showers and storms tonight
  and tomorrow with a low risk for strong winds and a low risk for
  flooding, both east of I-65 during the late afternoon and early
  evening hours Saturday.

- There's at least a medium chance for showers on Sunday and
  Monday, but cooler than average temperatures will also be
  around into the start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Another incredible July day is just about in the books and come to
think of it, so is August and it looks like we're going to start the
month off wet. After some pre-frontal showers earlier this evening
west of I-65, we're already looking upstream at storms in southern
Missouri that are headed this way. No severe is expected with
anything overnight as CAPE values are sub-500 J/Kg and shear values
remain low. The earlier rain and the overnight stuff are all part of
a larger system that has really wrapped up over the mid-Mississippi
valley this evening and as the attendant upper low digs into the
Ohio and TN valleys tonight and tomorrow morning, you are going to
feel the difference in humidity. Heck, I would argue most are
already feeling it with dew points having jumped up into the low 70s
just within the last several hours. This increase in moisture will
help to fuel a few storms tonight into tomorrow morning and then
after a break in the action during the late morning and early
afternoon hours, the actual front will start to push through Middle
TN. CAMs are very consistent with the bulk of the thunderstorm
activity tomorrow being east of I-65 -- at least the stronger and
heavier stuff -- some time between 4 pm and 9 pm. If you haven't
seen, SPC did introduce a Slight Risk for our eastern counties in
this window tomorrow. I have been talking about a low wind risk
tomorrow and I really don't think it's much different after looking
at forecast soundings again tonight. Poor lapse rates throughout
this event should act to curb a more widespread wind event. Better
lapse rates are expected to be seen north of us, which is why
there's a better severe threat in KY and even a 2% tor risk. If for
some reason those better lapse rates leak southward, there could be
a low tornado risk here, too, but models have been very consistent
for the last 4 nights indicating that won't be the case. So, a low
wind risk and then the rainfall I've been talking about, too. I
really like the idea that any flooding concerns will be very
isolated, meaning we won't see any widespread flooding issues.
Chances for 2"+ anywhere east of I-65 remain at 20-30%, so I think
we're good there as 1-hr Flash Flood Guidance is still higher than
that in the areas where the rain is expected. In the end, be weather
aware tomorrow afternoon and evening and all should be well.

After the core of the storms exit into East TN tomorrow evening, I
don't think we're going to be completely done with the rain. Models
continue to show the upper low pushing towards the mid-state on
Sunday and this should keep rain chances in the forecast through the
afternoon on Sunday. Not everybody will see rain, but many will with
at least a medium chance for a shower or brief storm. In fact,
several models have this upper low slow to exit the region and we
could see showers from it into Monday now, as well. This would
explain the slightly cooler temperatures now being seen Monday to
start off the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

I'm not sold on the rest of the forecast, especially as we near the
middle of next week. One or two models have diurnal activity Tuesday
and Wednesday and others are dry, so we'll have to work out those
details over the next few days. Outside of that, we should see
temperatures revert back to something closer to normal around
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Scattered showers and storms may impact the terminals during the
taf period with the greatest chances after 09z through mid
morning and again after 18z for BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB. Tempo groups were
added during periods of higher confidence. There is a medium
chance for MVFR cigs this morning and then again late in the taf
period. Southerly winds will increase to 10 kts after 15z with
gusts around 20 kts through the afternoon. Winds will decrease to
around 5 kts or less after 02/00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  65  83  62 /  70  10  70  30
Clarksville    86  69  81  69 /  40  20  80  30
Crossville     83  66  80  65 /  90  80  60  30
Columbia       90  69  83  68 /  40  10  60  20
Cookeville     85  68  81  67 /  80  60  60  40
Jamestown      84  67  81  66 /  90  70  70  30
Lawrenceburg   88  68  82  67 /  50  10  70  30
Murfreesboro   91  69  84  69 /  70  20  60  30
Waverly        86  68  80  67 /  40  10  70  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan