Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Daily rounds of storms will continue through the weekend. Heavy
  rain resulting in flash flooding is going to be the main
  impact, although some strong wind gusts are also possible.

- Heat indices will reach the low 100s west of the Cumberland
  Plateau into early next week. Tuesday will be the hottest day of
  the period with heat indices nearing or exceeding 105 degrees.

- There is a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe weather Tuesday
  into Wednesday. Main impact is damaging winds currently.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A busy afternoon and evening across Middle TN today with showers
and thunderstorms scattered across the area. Flooding has been an
ongoing concern as we have seen rainfall rates as high as 3-4
inches per hour with strongest storms. Along with heavy rain, we
have seen some gusty winds, between 40-50 mph with any
downbursts. Storms are expected to trend down through the
remainder of the evening with the loss of daylight and boundary
layer heating. A brief drying period takes place late tonight and
through Monday morning, but then another round of showers and
storms develops through the afternoon. With this activity, flash
flooding and strong winds will continue to be the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Today's chosen area of morning convective initiation is south of I-
40, with cumulus fields bubbling well on satellite in that area and
beginning to bubble north of I-40 as well. High temperatures will
get into the mid 80s to low 90s for highs today, with heat indices
in the triple digits especially west of the Plateau.

While we are not in a severe risk area today, we are still expecting
thunderstorms in Middle Tennessee. Some guidance is showing an
organized storm cluster forming near the TN/AL state line tonight
and continuing into Alabama, whereas other guidance is not showing
anything more than the pop-up showers and thunderstorms we've grown
accustomed to. Guidance seems to do better once we have more
widespread initiation, so we will see what is spit out when storms
form. Not expecting severe weather today, but some stronger storms
are possible. As usual, main hazards continue to be gusty winds and
heavy rainfall that could result in localized flash flooding with
stronger storms.

As for Monday, highs will be more widespread in the 90s, even in
some areas of the Plateau. While we will continue to see an increase
in heat indices to start the work week, spots meeting and exceeding
heat advisory criteria will be more isolated in Middle Tennessee
compared to other areas. This leads us to forgo a heat product, at
least for Monday. Rain wise, popcorn convection will continue on
Monday in the scattered fashion we have seen lately. The atmosphere
is chock full of moisture right now, and that's the way it will stay
through mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The beginning and middle of the work weeks are a bit complicated
with multiple hazards at the same time. Tuesday into Wednesday, a
500mb trough and accompanying low pressure system will swing through
Ontario, dragging behind them the cold front we will see Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This will bring us some forcing and not
surprisingly, a risk for severe weather. SPC has seen this setup in
the guidance and put us in a Day 3 slight risk (level 2 out of 5)
for severe weather. As it stands now, damaging winds continue their
streak of being a popular hazard with our severe chances this
summer. There appears to be a low end tornado threat in CAMs with
this system, with a linear storm mode to boot. Something we will
have to keep an eye on in future forecast packages. In addition to
the severe risk, heat indices will be dangerously high on Tuesday,
exceeding 105 in quite a few areas west of the plateau.

After the cold front, we will enter a quieter period for the mid-
week. Highs will be in the mid 80s starting on Wednesday, slowly
warming back into the 90s into next weekend. It does look like we
could see another system Friday into Friday night associated with a
shortwave in the mid-levels, but specifics are not too clear on that
system just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Thunderstorms are ongoing near the majority of Middle TN terminals
this evening. Activity will start winding down over the next 2 to
3 hours. Clouds will thin out overnight with light and variable
winds, resulting in more widespread fog development compared to
previous nights. CSV, SRB, and CKV have the highest chance of
seeing IFR to LIFR fog overnight. Lower rain/storm chances in the
forecast for Monday afternoon, generally 10-20%, so no PROB30s
have been mentioned in the taf at this time. Winds will remain
light and generally out of the southwest through Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  93  76  94 /  70  30  10  20
Clarksville    73  92  75  94 /  40  20  10  30
Crossville     68  87  70  86 /  60  50  10  30
Columbia       72  94  74  94 /  80  30  10  20
Cookeville     70  89  72  88 /  60  30  10  40
Jamestown      68  88  71  87 /  40  40  20  50
Lawrenceburg   71  92  73  92 /  70  30  10  20
Murfreesboro   73  94  75  94 /  70  30  10  20
Waverly        73  92  74  94 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......Cravens
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Baggett

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
534 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     Flash Flood      1 ESE Cookeville        36.15N 85.49W
07/19/2026                   Putnam             TN   Trained Spotter

            Report of water flowing across Hermitage
            Avenue. Time is when report was received.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
604 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     Flash Flood      2 E Cookeville          36.16N 85.47W
07/19/2026                   Putnam             TN   Trained Spotter

            Flood waters flowing over a section of
            Castle Drive in Cookeville.

&&

CC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
608 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Flash Flood      St. Joseph              35.04N 87.50W
07/19/2026                   Lawrence           TN   Public

            Water out of banks along a creek in St.
            Joseph. Flood waters inundating a residences
            yard.

&&

CC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
642 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

TNZ027-059-062-200030-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-
642 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES THROUGH
730 PM CDT...

At 641 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brentwood, or near Franklin, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Franklin, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Nolensville,
Oak Hill, and Triune.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 67 and 75.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 64 and 74.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 41 and 54, and between mile
markers 57 and 58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8642 3577 8656 3595 8685 3606 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 302DEG 18KT 3598 8675

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clements

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
708 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Flash Flood      St. Joseph              35.04N 87.50W
07/19/2026                   Lawrence           TN   Public

            Corrects previous flash flood report from
            St. Joseph. Water out of banks along Little
            Blue Water Creek. Flood waters inundating a
            residences yard.

&&

CC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
720 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Brentwood         35.98N 86.82W
07/19/2026                   Williamson         TN   Public

            Portions of Franklin Rd. flooded.

&&

APB