Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
538 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Rain and storm chances return on Sunday and extend into next
  week. Low chances for severe weather through next week.

- Expect heavy rainfall with any storms that develop as PWATs reach
  near record territory Sunday through mid next week.

- Increasing trend with temperature and humidity through next
  week. Heat indices reach the 90s early week and even near 100 by
  mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Clouds continue to move across the state this evening, with mostly
cloudy skies forecasted and lows on the warmer side in the mid 60s
to near 70 degrees. Sunday will bring on the start of a wetter
pattern as our high pressure system moves out to sea and a surface
boundary is expected to develop over Tennessee with a decent trough
to our west in the midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
during the day starting around mid-morning. Convection will be more
on the scattered side, and we're not expecting any severe weather at
this time. If there is any chance of an isolated strong storm, the
best area continues to appear to be west of I-65 in Middle Tennessee
Sunday afternoon.

The aforementioned trough will pass through Monday afternoon into
Monday night. The organized severe threat has decreased in guidance,
so Monday should look fairly similar to Sunday. Ample moisture and
instability will lead to plenty of showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day. Once again, the severe threat is low, but an
isolated strong storm could occur. Main hazards both Sunday and
Monday are gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rainfall with any
stronger storms, but PWATs are decently high in soundings and
forecast soundings, showing how moist the environment is.

Temperatures on Sunday will be lower than today due to cloud cover,
but we will still make it into the 80s. Monday will be similar in
warmth, with areas around the TN river being warmest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Even though we won't see any organized systems after Monday, daytime
convection will be in full swing for the remainder of the week. So
some scattered/isolated thunderstorms during the hottest parts of
the day can be expected even as a ridge rebuilds to our west on
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain on the higher side, and the
moisture will keep on coming aloft, keeping our dewpoints moist. As
the ridge deepens its grip on our area, expect some 90 degree
temperatures during the latter part of the week. Remember to stay
hydrated and take plenty of breaks in the AC, shade, or the pool if
you have some outdoor plans!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Conditions are currently VFR, but this is still expected to change
as rain and thunderstorms move into the area. Showers will move into
the area from the south and west after 15Z with activity becoming
scattered through the afternoon and evening. Underneath heavy
showers or storms, impacts will include lightning and heavy rain
which may cause reduced visibility. Cigs will gradually lower
through the period with MVFR cigs developing after 18Z before
dropping to IFR after 00Z. Storm coverage looks to diminish after
02Z, but will pick back up by early Monday morning. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds will generally be southerly at 5-10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  71  84  70 /  70  70  80  70
Clarksville    86  71  85  71 /  40  60  90  70
Crossville     81  66  75  65 /  30  60  90  60
Columbia       81  70  83  70 /  80  60  80  60
Cookeville     83  68  78  67 /  30  70  90  70
Jamestown      85  66  78  65 /  10  50  90  50
Lawrenceburg   79  70  81  69 /  90  60  80  60
Murfreesboro   83  70  83  70 /  80  60  90  70
Waverly        83  71  85  71 /  70  60  70  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Clements