Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Nashville, TN

251 
WGUS74 KOHX 101354
FFSOHX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
854 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

TNC037-101404-
/O.EXP.KOHX.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-260710T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Davidson TN-
854 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
DAVIDSON COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT Sunday for a 
portion of Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 8657 3614 8655 3611 8666 3601 8671
      3604 8679 3605 8693 3599 8704 3603 8705
      3609 8704 3613 8700 3617 8699 3635 8672
      3632 8670 3629 8664 3625 8664 3625 8659

$$

CC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA until 6 PM Sunday.

- There's a marginal risk (level 1/5) for stronger storms to
  produce damaging wind gusts Friday and Saturday.

- Drier conditions expected next week, with continuing diurnal
  showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A decaying bowing segment moving across Kentucky and Tennessee is
losing its steam as its outflow has surged ahead of it. More
showers and storms are expected to develop along this outflow
boundary during the overnight hours, but a decrease in instability
will turn down the severe threat. The main concerns with any
storm overnight will be gusty winds and heavy rain, which could
pose a flood risk given how saturated the soils are from recent
precipitation.

Tomorrow, more embedded shortwaves will move through aloft and
support additional scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
morning. As a southerly 45 kt LLJ ramps up in the afternoon, the
CAMs depict another bowing segment moving across the area from NW
to SE. Afternoon destabilization is questionable, however, given
morning showers and thunderstorms and remnant cloud cover. If some
pockets of sunshine are able to peak through and we're able to
destabilize, ample deep layer shear and steep low-level lapse
rates could support damaging wind gusts.

Flooding will be a bigger concern. Backbuilding cells are
probable, and this is concerning given that the ground is saturated
and PWATs are forecast to be in the 2.25-2.5" range, which could
challenge the climatological daily max. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected Friday night and into Saturday with
potentially a mid-morning lull before diurnal convection fires off
again.

A widespread 2-4" of rain is expected with locally higher amounts
possible. The entire area remains under a Flood Watch until Sunday
at 6 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A broad upper ridge will build to our west, cutting off a low over
the TN valley on Sunday. At the surface, a west/east draped
boundary will slowly drift south and sustain chances for showers
and thunderstorms, any of which could produce heavy rain and
flooding concerns. This cutoff low may linger over the area into
early next week and keep higher changes for scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. Diurnal activity will then
continue through the week but overall chances for precipitation
will be lower as the upper ridge expands over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

An area of decaying rain/storms continues to move into Middle
Tennessee, though has nearly faded off just west of BNA. CKV
continues to see -RA, with SHRA/TS to the northwest in Kentucky.
Watching that activity closely. TAFs are prevailing VFR with SW
winds through the period, though impacts will come from any
convection. Rain/TS is forecast to gradually move SE into Middle
Tennessee overnight into the morning hours, so maintained TEMPOs
as needed. Another round of convection is forecast late in the
period at all terminals, so stuck with PROB30s for now until
timing can be narrowed down. A relative lull in activity is
possible during the afternoon along SW wind gusts 15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  72  88  71 /  90  90  80  60
Clarksville    89  72  88  70 /  90  80  70  50
Crossville     81  67  81  66 /  90  90  70  60
Columbia       89  72  88  70 /  70  80  80  70
Cookeville     83  69  83  68 /  90  90  80  60
Jamestown      82  67  82  66 / 100  80  80  60
Lawrenceburg   87  71  86  69 /  60  80  80  70
Murfreesboro   89  72  88  70 /  80  90  70  60
Waverly        89  71  87  69 /  90  80  80  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cahill
LONG TERM....Cahill
AVIATION.....Sizemore