Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and
  weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible through the
  end of the week, mainly west of the Plateau.

- Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several
  days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low,
  but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with
  stronger, slower-moving storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

As a low pressure system swirls near the bootheel of MO on
satellite, showers and thunderstorms are beginning to kick off in
Middle Tennessee. We're expecting coverage to increase as the low
pushes east this afternoon and evening. While some of these
thunderstorms will be loud, produce heavy downpours, and maybe
include some gusty winds, we're not expecting any severe storms
today. Shear is extremely low, meaning the storms won't be able to
really sustain themselves long enough to become severe despite a
fair amount of instability. Highs will get into the mid to upper
80s, with heat indices in the 90s this afternoon.

Thursday will be similar for the area, with warmer highs in the mid
80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday
aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the
precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the
upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. While the outlooked
area remains north of the KY/TN state line, we're still looking at
scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as the
morning hours on Thursday. Greatest chances for thunderstorms seems
to be east of I-65 currently, but other locations could see them as
well. Again, we are not expecting severe storms at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Into the weekend, as various rain chances careen through Middle
Tennessee, our chances for flooding will also increase as high PWATs
continue to be a threat. Given the already saturated soils, and the
risk for another 3 to 4 inches through Sunday, a Flood watch has
been issued for Thursday through Sunday. We could also see some
isolated severe storms Friday into Saturday, as we are in a Marginal
(level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC. Marginal is
the best word to describe our risk, as shear remains in the barely
double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained
storms but CAPE is high across the region. Similar setups to what's
going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant
outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to
be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, with no tornado risk expected
at this time.

Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer
rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer
feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices
forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next
week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as
NW flow will set up over Middle Tennessee as we find ourselves east
of a strengthening ridge for the beginning of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Another day of popup convection is underway. Have kept the PROB30s
going for all sites this afternoon given the expansive coverage
of isolated storms. Other than the persistence precip forecast,
expect light south/southwest winds and VFR conditions. More of the
same tomorrow, though perhaps greater convective coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  90  74  90 /  30  30  70  80
Clarksville    70  91  74  89 /  30  30  70  70
Crossville     65  82  67  83 /  30  60  70  90
Columbia       69  90  72  90 /  30  40  50  70
Cookeville     67  84  70  84 /  40  60  70  90
Jamestown      66  83  68  83 /  40  60  70  90
Lawrenceburg   68  87  71  88 /  30  50  50  80
Murfreesboro   70  90  72  90 /  40  40  60  80
Waverly        69  90  73  89 /  30  30  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Dirkes