Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1124 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Regular chances for showers and thunderstorms continue with
  more thunderstorms in the forecast for this evening,
  especially along and east of the Missouri River.

- A summer-like pattern sets up next week keeping warm and muggy
  weather in place with additional daily chances for showers and
  thunderstorms throughout the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

We've seen a couple isolated storms develop this evening, some
along a boundary stretching south from ongoing storms in South
Dakota, and a couple others around the Omaha/Council Bluffs
area. Mid-level dry air is making storm development difficult,
though if storms do develop there is 2000J/kg+ of CAPE, and
1400J/kg of DCAPE. Shear is modest (75m2/s2 of sfc-1km SRH),
lending to observed storms not holding together long, but
occasional low-to-mid level rotation was observed in the
earlier cell over Douglas County. The low tornado threat is only
diminishing, making primary hazards large hail and damaging
winds. Storms that develop this evening should clear out by 5AM,
with clearing skies Monday morning.

Ridging starts to build up on Monday over our area with
subsidence dampening storm potential Monday afternoon despite a
shortwave moving over our area. CAMs show a few isolated storms
through the afternoon, so introduced a 15-20% chance for a few
isolated storms. Temperatures expected to warm into the mid-to-
upper 80s during the afternoon. A more substantial shortwave
triggers convection over western Nebraska during the afternoon,
likely developing into an MCS through the evening. This could
bring us another chance for showers and storms across our far
western counties early Tuesday, though most guidance has it
dissipating before it gets any farther east.

We continue to see ridging amplify across the Central Plains
through midweek, with a moisture plume triggering storms along
the western flank of the ridge. Nightly potential for MCS
development and propagation eastward appears likely, with
increasing chances for storms to make it into eastern Nebraska
Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Thursday the Ridge shifts far
enough eastward for the moisture plume to run straight up
through our area, developing storms across eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa Thursday afternoon through the evening.

Going into the weekend, the ridge shifts far enough eastward
that that moisture plume drops southeast into Missouri, but a
developing surface Low over the Dakotas triggers more chances
for showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening. Through the
weekend we see a baroclinic weather pattern set up with strong
ridging building up to our north, and a series of two shortwave
troughs moving northeast into Nebraska through the weekend. This
will keep chances for showers and storms for Saturday and
Sunday, while increased warm-air advection from enhanced
southerly flow will warm temperatures back into the upper 80s to
near 90.

Extreme heat appears possible next week with ample moisture
contributing to concerning heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Storms should stay mostly clear of the terminals for the rest of
the night, though we do still have a 20% chance of a storm
impacting KOMA through 07Z. Mostly clear skies expected through
morning with winds becoming northwesterly by around 10Z. Winds
continue to shift toward northerly then northeasterly by midday
Monday with a 15-20% chance for a few isolated showers/storms
Monday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1107 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-020415-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-
Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-
Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
1107 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible through around 3 AM. Isolated
hail and strong wind gusts are the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
area Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and strong wind
gusts are the primary hazards.

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through next week.
Thunderstorms could potentially be strong to severe, though chances
are low (less than 15%) at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
918 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     Hail             6 SW Norfolk            41.98N 97.49W
05/31/2026  E0.25 Inch       Madison            NE   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
927 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     Hail             2 NW Elkhorn            41.30N 96.26W
05/31/2026  E0.25 Inch       Douglas            NE   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
938 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     Hail             1 NW Elkhorn            41.30N 96.25W
05/31/2026  E0.50 Inch       Douglas            NE   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

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