Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1115 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact portions of
  southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa overnight. Large
  hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall are expected.
  Training thunderstorms may result in flash flooding.

- Additional thunderstorm chances are expected Wednesday and
  again on Friday. Continue to monitor the forecast for severe
  weather potential.

- Much colder air arrives Friday night/Saturday morning. Lows
  both Saturday and Sunday mornings will fall into the 20s to
  low/mid-30s. Additionally, snow chances return to portions of
  the forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The forecast period begins with ongoing showers in northern Nebraska
and a few strong to severe thunderstorms along the Kansas/Nebraska
border. These thunderstorms have been kicking off along a boundary
extending from northwest of Concordia, Kansas to northwest of
Fremont, Nebraska to north of Council Bluffs, Iowa. DCAPE values
are currently in the 800-1100 J/kg range. SBCAPE values range
between 1000 to nearly 3000 J/kg. ML lapse rates range from
7-8C/km with LL lapse rates around 6.5-7.5C/km. The main
concerns with this line of storms will be large hail and gusty
winds.

Also of note with tonight's convection is the potential for some
flooding. Precipitable water values are around 1.0+ inches along and
south of the boundary. Training thunderstorms along and south of the
boundary could result in some locations getting quite a bit of
rainfall. We will continue to monitor the potential through the
night.

Heading into Wednesday morning, the low will continue to lift east-
northeast. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity is expected as
moisture wraps around the low. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
will again be possible with hail and wind being the main threats. An
isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out.

Thursday continues to look like our best drying out day as a ridge
moves over the region. WAA sets up with highs returning to the upper
70s to mid-80s.

Friday continues to be a day to watch closely as we move closer to
the event. Low pressure will develop on the lee side of the Rockies
Thursday night. An attendant cold front will slide into the region
through the day with much colder air pushing in behind it. The cold
front appears to be moving into the region slightly faster than
yesterday's runs. Areas ahead of the front can expect highs ranging
from the mid-70s to low 80s, while areas behind it may struggle into
the mid-50s. Warm Gulf air will be streaming into the region through
the day. An upper trough will also be arriving heading into the
latter part of the day, bringing additional lift to the region.
Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front
Friday afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. In addition
to the potential for severe storms ahead of the cold front, areas in
northern Nebraska behind the front may receive a rain/snow mix,
becoming all snow. The snow chances will push south of I-80 heading
into daybreak, with rain/snow possible for areas from Friend to
Hallam to just east of Council Bluffs. Precipitation chances should
decrease heading into the afternoon with just a few showers
remaining.

Anyone with agricultural interests or outdoor activities will want
to monitor the weekend forecast as colder temperatures and
potential wintry weather returns to the forecast. Saturday
morning temperatures have trended slightly colder, with northern
Nebraska expecting temps in the upper 20s. Areas closer to the
Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri border will fall into the low to
mid- 30s. Sunday morning lows will be even colder with more
widespread 20s for lows and most areas falling below the
freezing mark.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions persist at the terminal this evening.
Expect the possibility for a few showers and maybe an isolated
storm after 05Z. Additional chances for showers/storms will be
possible Wednesday morning. Winds will remain out of the north
or northwest through the TAF period.

KOMA: VFR conditions continue for now at the terminal. West
winds will shift to the north over the next couple of hours.
Thunderstorm chances will increase after 02Z, continuing
overnight. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR levels by
daybreak, persisting through much of the morning before
improving in the afternoon. Although not included in the TAF at
this time, there is a small chance of a few thunderstorms
coming into the vicinity of the terminal after 19Z Wednesday.
There is still some uncertainty in where specifically they will
develop and if it will impact the terminal directly.

KLNK: VFR conditions persist through the evening. Winds are
going to be shifting shortly at the terminal as an outflow
boundary moves in from the north. Thunderstorms have developed
west of the area, from west of KEAR to near KOLU. These storms
will move to the northwest with additional storms firing up
along a warm front. There is potential that a few of these
storms do make it into the vicinity of KLNK, so a mention was
added into prevailing conditions. For the rest of the forecast
period, ceilings fall to MVFR levels. There is an additional
chance of some showers or storms impacting the terminal after
18Z; however, due to TAF length, complexity, and still some
uncertainty of where these showers/storms develop, the mention
of them was omitted from prevailing conditions for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
959 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-160300-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-
Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-
Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
959 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms remain possible evening into tonight, mainly
east of a line from Fairbury,NE, to Fremont, NE, to Woodbine, IA.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. A second
round of storms will be possible Wednesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday and Friday. Severe
storms will be possible at times, especially across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times this week, particularly
Tuesday night and Friday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1026 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     Hail             Beatrice                40.26N 96.74W
04/14/2026  M1.00 Inch       Gage               NE   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reported quarter-sized hail in
            Beatrice, time estimated from radar.

&&

DMP