Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1141 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
   across north-central Idaho, tracking toward the Montana state
   line. Hazards include gusts up to 60 mph and up to 1-inch
   hail.

-  Elevated fire weather (hot, dry, breezy) starting Friday and lasting
   into the weekend region-wide.

-  Worsening wildfire smoke degrading air quality and reducing
   visibility.

The region remains on the western periphery of a large- scale
upper-level ridge. Persistent synoptic descent and subsidence
aloft will maintain, hot, dry, and smoky conditions with no
widespread precipitation anticipated through the weekend.

Despite broad subsidence, localized thermodynamic forcing will
help to trigger strong to severe convection today (1:00 PM - 10:00
PM). Effective shear (~40 kt), modest CAPE (~1,000 J/kg), and
high DCAPE (~1,500 J/kg) will support organized discrete storms
initiating near the Snake River canyon in north-central Idaho
tracking northeastward to the ID/MT border. The strongest storms
in this environment will be capable of producing damaging winds up
to 60 mph and hail up to 1-inch in diameter. Climatologically
high moisture availability (PWATS > 1 inch) will yield brief
heavy downpours, but rapid storm movement will prevent concerns
for flash flooding. There is a 10-20% chance that decaying storms
reach the I-90 corridor late this evening which may bring a gusty
outflow threat to the area.

Breezy southwesterly winds Friday through Sunday will combine with
low humidity and hot temperatures to elevate fire weather
concerns. Red Flag Warnings are not currently being issued due to
live fuels and soil moisture remaining relatively high for this
time of year and wind speeds only on the edge of what would be an
immediate concern for fire weather products. Nonetheless,
elevated fire weather conditions and increased active fire
behavior is to remain expected on any active burns or new
ignitions.

Deep SW flow will continually transport Washington and Oregon
wildfire smoke into ID/MT, maintaining poor air quality and
decreased visibilities across the region. No Heat Advisories are
planned as of yet due to overnight temperature recovery and
shading from smoke limiting absolute maximum temperatures during
the peak of the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION... Wildfire smoke (FU/HZ) remains the primary prevailing
hazard, causing periods of MVFR visibilities through the next
couple days especially noticeable near sunset, through the
overnight and into mid-morning with some clearing each afternoon
due to deep mixing. Ridgetop winds increase to about 30 knots
through today out of the west and southwest with surface wind
gusts as high as 30 knots possible region-wide during peak
heating.

Strong to severe convection today mostly targets KGIC from
23/2200z to 24/0300z (isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible, hail
up to 1 inch in diameter). Activity decays to the northeast near
I-90 where prob30 groups remain for elevated winds at KHRF and
KMSO.

Hot temperatures, especially Friday, will impact aircraft
performance particularly at higher-elevation terminals like KBTM.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
549 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

IDZ007-008-240030-
Orofino/Grangeville Region ID-Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River
Region ID-
449 PM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL IDAHO COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM PDT...

At 449 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles west of White Bird, or 30 miles west of Grangeville, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph and heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Keuterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4600 11653 4604 11652 4612 11651 4596 11629
      4578 11659 4578 11666 4583 11671 4582 11676
      4583 11679 4586 11679 4587 11675 4589 11673
      4594 11676 4599 11672 4600 11670 4600 11665
      4603 11665 4604 11663 4603 11658 4600 11654
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 224DEG 21KT 4582 11674

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
631 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

IDZ006>008-240100-
Orofino/Grangeville Region ID-Southern Clearwater Mountains ID-
Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region ID-
531 PM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN IDAHO AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM PDT...

At 531 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 22 miles southwest of Orofino to 9 miles
north of Riggins, or extending from 22 miles southwest of Orofino to
27 miles south of Grangeville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Grangeville, Kooskia, White Bird, East Kamiah, Clearwater,
  Cottonwood, Stites, Ferdinand, Harpster, Fenn, Winona, Copperville,
  Canfield, Slate Creek, Keuterville, Lucile, Golden, Pardee, Fall
  Creek and Woodland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4600 11653 4604 11652 4613 11651 4612 11648
      4614 11648 4620 11645 4620 11642 4615 11620
      4621 11614 4621 11606 4623 11601 4630 11613
      4640 11618 4642 11610 4594 11557 4552 11577
      4544 11636 4602 11658 4600 11654
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 255DEG 31KT 4622 11651 4588 11603 4555 11626

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

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