Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
144 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Gusty winds with thunderstorms this afternoon in Lemhi County
   and in the vicinity of Butte.

-  Localized heavy rainfall/gusty outflow wind threat Monday and
   Tuesday with showers and storms.

This Afternoon/Evening...Warm and mostly stable conditions will
prevail across the majority of the region today. However, mid-
level moisture advancing northward into southwest Montana and
Lemhi County, Idaho, will trigger isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Deeply dry low-level air (inverted-V sounding
profiles) will favor dry microbursts capable of producing
localized severe outflow winds exceeding 50 mph, primarily across
Lemhi County and the Butte area. The Storm Prediction Center
maintains a Marginal Risk (5-15% chance) for these damaging gusts.

Monday and Tuesday...The week's most impactful weather arrives as
a robust surge of subtropical moisture pushes precipitable water
(PWAT) values well above early-July climatological normals. An
upper-level disturbance interacting with peak afternoon heating on
Monday will spark organized thunderstorms across north-central
Idaho and west-central into southwest Montana.

 Primary hazards with Monday's activity include:
* Frequent lightning capable of igniting new wildfires in dry fuels.
* Erratic convective wind gusts of 40 to 50+ mph.
* Heavy rainfall rates of 0.50 to 0.75 inches per hour,
  introducing localized flash flood and debris flow risk,
  especially on recent burn scars.

Thick morning cloud cover on Monday may initially limit daytime
destabilization, but strong afternoon dynamic forcing and pockets
of instability are expected to overcome this convective
inhibition. By Tuesday, low levels begin to dry out, but lingering
mid-level moisture and instability will trigger a second round of
scattered afternoon thunderstorms, focusing primarily from
Interstate 90 southward.

Wednesday through Friday...Following the departure of Tuesday's
system, the region transitions back to a classic summer pattern.
Expect warm, dry conditions with breezy westerly afternoon winds.
Isolated, terrain-driven afternoon thunderstorms will remain
possible but will be largely restricted to the mountains of
southwest Montana.

Next Weekend and Beyond...Looking ahead to next weekend and into
mid-July, forecast models indicate a strong ridge of high pressure
currently over the Desert Southwest will expand northward. While
the exact placement of the high pressure remains uncertain, the
prevailing trend strongly favors a shift toward well above normal
temperatures. As this prolonged heat builds late in the week and
through the weekend, the risk for heat related illnesses will
increase. This will be especially true for vulnerable populations
and those recreating outdoors without adequate hydration and
shade. Forecast models also suggest this high-pressure setup
could periodically draw moisture up from the southwest (beginning
around the 13/14th) to trigger daily thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail across western Montana
and north-central Idaho through Monday. The primary aviation
concern today will be isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms tracking into southwest Montana and Lemhi County,
Idaho.

Impacts will be localized to the KSMN and KBTM terminals:
* KSMN: VCTS/TSRA potential from 05/21z to 06/01z.
* KBTM: VCTS/TSRA potential from 05/22z to 06/02z.

Due to a deeply dry lower atmosphere, these high-based storms
will carry a 30 percent chance of generating erratic outflow winds
gusting over 30 knots and a 5-15% probability of 50+ knots.
Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will maintain high-confidence
VFR flight categories with no thunderstorm impacts expected.

Mid-level clouds and light showers (mostly virga) will increase
on Monday morning as sub-tropical moisture moves overhead.
Forcing from an advancing shortwave and modest instability should
be enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday
afternoon, especially from I-90 southward. Brief heavy rain,
lightning, and gusty outflow to 35 kts are the main hazards.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
224 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

IDZ010-052115-
Eastern Lemhi County ID-
224 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LEMHI COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM MDT...

At 224 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Salmon, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Baker and Williams Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4497 11404 4504 11402 4528 11368 4525 11368
      4519 11359 4516 11359 4515 11357 4513 11357
      4511 11356 4512 11351 4511 11351 4509 11352
      4508 11349 4506 11349 4506 11345 4504 11346
      4501 11344 4490 11397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 233DEG 18KT 4498 11396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
401 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

IDZ010-052230-
Eastern Lemhi County ID-
401 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LEMHI COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM MDT...

At 401 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lemhi, or 23 miles southeast of Salmon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Lemhi and Tendoy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4482 11365 4492 11375 4509 11351 4508 11349
      4506 11349 4506 11345 4505 11345 4504 11346
      4503 11345 4502 11345 4501 11344 4500 11345
      4496 11344 4495 11345 4494 11350 4492 11349
      4491 11347 4490 11348 4487 11346
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 231DEG 22KT 4489 11364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TSP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Missoula MT
402 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNE Leadore           44.70N 113.35W
07/05/2026  M55 MPH          Lemhi              ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station LDOI1 Leadore.

&&

AL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
506 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

MTZ007-052345-
Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-
506 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DEER LODGE AND
CENTRAL SILVER BOW COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 506 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Divide, or 13 miles southwest of Butte, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Butte, Silver Bow, Walkerville, Gregson Hot Springs, Nissler,
  Ramsay, Newcomb and Janney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4580 11275 4603 11287 4612 11250 4609 11247
      4608 11247 4607 11246 4605 11248 4604 11247
      4603 11244 4597 11244 4596 11243 4594 11244
      4592 11242 4591 11242 4589 11240 4586 11242
      4585 11243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 243DEG 15KT 4588 11274

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
621 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

IDZ010-060045-
Eastern Lemhi County ID-
621 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LEMHI COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM MDT...

At 621 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Lemhi, or 20 miles south of Salmon, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Lemhi and Tendoy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4479 11378 4494 11394 4519 11359 4516 11359
      4515 11357 4513 11357 4511 11356 4512 11351
      4511 11351 4509 11352 4508 11349 4506 11349
      4506 11345 4504 11346 4503 11345 4501 11344
      4500 11345 4496 11345 4495 11350 4487 11346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 230DEG 13KT 4490 11378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TSP