Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 713 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  mainly northeast, then diminishing this evening.

- Very  hot this week with high temperatures well into the 90s
  common. Afternoon heat index values will climb to around or
  above 100 degrees in in most valley locations multiple days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

There have been a few showers showing up on radar over the
northeast, and a few showers and possibly thunderstorms will
continue over our northeastern areas through this afternoon before
dissipating by early tonight. Will continue to mention the
possibility of localized flooding in the HWO for any areas of
heavy rain that may occur over already saturated soils.

A large upper ridge over the eastern CONUS will dominate our weather
this week, providing mostly dry and very hot conditions.  The better
chances for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm will be over the
mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday into the weekend, the
ridge axis shifts to our east and isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible even in valley areas mainly during the
afternoon hours.

The main story for the week looks to be the hot conditions. High
temperatures are expected to be in the 90s across all but the higher
elevations each day this week and through the weekend, with mid to
upper 90s across portions of the valley especially Wednesday through
Friday which right now look to be the hottest days.  Heat index
values around or above 100 will common in the afternoons, and heat
index values may exceed 105 across portions of the area especially
Wednesday and Thursday. While forecast heat index values are
borderline for a heat advisory at this time, based on the heightened
impacts of a multi-day period of very hot conditions a heat advisory
will be issued starting Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. It
may eventually need to be extended longer in time as it still looks
very hot Friday and into at least the beginning of the weekend, but
for now will start with this three day period given forecast
uncertainties in the longer ranges.

A short wave may bring more coverage of showers and storms along
with slightly lower temperatures by Sunday or Monday, but confidence
in the details is low that far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The main aviation impact this period will be the potential for fog
again at TRI. Vis went down hard last night, but the complicating
factor tonight will be whether clouds will clear out. Models show
conflicting signals on this, leading to a low confidence forecast.
For now, will maintain MVFR vis in the TAF with some scattered
clouds, but if clouds fully clear out, then vis will likely drop
hard again to LIFR or lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             76  97  77  98 /   0   0  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  93  73  94 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       73  94  74  95 /   0  10   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  93  70  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 PM EDT Thursday for
     Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Tuesday to 9 PM EDT /8
     PM CDT/ Thursday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
     East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-
     North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest
     Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
     Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-
     Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 PM EDT Thursday for Lee-
     Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-301800-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 /100 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm can be expected across
the northeastern portions of our area this afternoon. Any heavy
rainfall that occurs where the ground is already saturated may
lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very hot conditions are expected Tuesday through at least Friday,
with afternoon heat index values expected to approach or exceed
100 at times over all but the higher elevations. See the heat
advisory for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of additional flooding are greatly appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
556 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

TNZ016-017-044-292245-
Sullivan TN-Washington TN-Hawkins TN-
556 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SULLIVAN...
NORTHEASTERN HAWKINS AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 645
PM EDT...

At 556 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kingsport, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsport, Church Hill, Mount Carmel, Sullivan Gardens, Fall Branch,
Bays Mountain Park, and Bloomingdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3657 8255 3636 8262 3637 8263 3642 8263
      3641 8270 3640 8272 3645 8283 3659 8267
      3659 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 019DEG 10KT 3652 8265

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BW