Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
801 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 739 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected in
  Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee
  Mountains this evening. A strong to severe storm isn't out of
  the question, especially in the north, but overall severe
  chances are low.

- Sunday and Monday will be dry with rain chances returning
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A shortwave trough will drop southeast from the upper midwest into
the Ohio valley between this afternoon through Sunday morning,
helping to push a cold front through the region tonight. Ahead of
this front, we could see some isolated strong to severe storms
capable of some damaging winds this afternoon through tonight.
While better chances for severe storms exist to our north, we'll
be in the left exit region of a jet streak aloft this evening,
with enough shear in place to support some cluster type cell
organization and enough instability to support some fairly strong
storms. Again, better chances exist to our north, but a strong to
severe storm can't be ruled out for any points roughly north of
the I-40 corridor. That being said, the chances for severe storms
are overall on the low side.

Looking ahead, the aforementioned shortwave will lead to a large
scale upper trough deepening over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS
Sunday into Monday before pulling away through eastern Canada and
the New England area on Tuesday. The subsequent northwest flow aloft
will keep us dry Sun through Tue before rain chances enter the
forecast again. Dewpoints may even mix out into the 50s for both Sun
and Mon afternoons. And while temperatures will be near seasonal
norms both days, the drier air would be a welcome break from the
humid conditions of late. As mentioned, rain chances return by
midweek as troughing deepens over the eastern CONUS once again.
Additional shortwave energy likely brings another system and
associated rain chances through the region Wed into Thu before
northwest upper flow gives us another shot of dry and cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Strong storms in Middle Tennessee and Southeast Kentucky will
likely weaken as they move into the region. Some showers will
still be possible late this evening as a cold front approaches.
Some thunder will be possible but confidence is low. In the early
morning hours, some fog development will be possible after the
cold front moves through mainly near TRI. There is some
uncertainty if the front stalls and clouds linger longer than
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  91  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  87  62  87 /  20   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  87  61  87 /  20   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  81  57  82 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...McD

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
312 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-231915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
312 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 /212 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms are possible across the Northeast
Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains
later this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
415 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VAZ006-222045-
Russell VA-
415 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM EDT...

At 414 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cleveland Va, or near Davenport, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon and Cleveland Va.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3691 8200 3688 8223 3699 8225 3700 8224
      3703 8220 3703 8219 3704 8217 3704 8212
      3705 8210 3704 8208 3705 8204 3707 8203
      3707 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 259DEG 13KT 3702 8215

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
504 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VAZ006-222145-
Russell VA-
504 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 504 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cleveland Va to 6 miles east of Lebanon.
Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Honaker, and Rosedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3696 8178 3695 8182 3691 8186 3687 8198
      3687 8200 3700 8223 3704 8215 3704 8212
      3705 8210 3704 8208 3705 8204 3707 8203
      3707 8202 3709 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 232DEG 10KT 3702 8214 3692 8196

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
522 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VAZ006-008-222145-
Washington VA-Russell VA-
522 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL RUSSELL AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 522 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saltville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glade Spring, Lindell, and Emory-Meadowview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 8196 3692 8193 3693 8183 3692 8183
      3679 8170 3671 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 300DEG 22KT 3687 8189

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KRS