Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
220 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 218 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the
  end of the work week, with the best chance of rain during each
  afternoon.

- There will be potential for a few storms to become strong to
  severe each afternoon with damaging winds and localized flooding
  the main threats.

- Temperatures will be near normal through Friday, but trending
  slightly above normal for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The regional radar mosaic shows multiple areas of convection
upstream over the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. The exact
evolution of these structures is uncertain, but the likelihood of
one of these structures to impact our area is high. There are a few
isolated thunderstorms developing across the southwest VA ahead of
the main MCS over N KY and W WV. These storms could produce isolated
winds and heavy rainfall. If we see repeated rounds of storms and
showers over any area, the potential for flooding and flash flooding
will increase and may require flood headlines in the future.
Forecast soundings across SW VA & NE TN highlight 2000-3000+ j/kg
CAPE with ~20 knots of shear. This is plenty for clusters of
thunderstorms to develop and produce isolated hail/wind damage.
Forecast soundings further west in SE TN highlight significant
instabilty available for thunderstorms to tap into. The general
consensus is that we'll see the MCS or a portion of the MCS upstream
follow the instability gradient that goes through our eastern
forecast area of SW VA/NE TN. The instability in place will be
plenty for MCS maintenance and the structure itself will likely be
able to enhance the local shear environment to a more favorable
situation. The timing appears to be between 4 to 8pm for our NE area
with uncertainty on how far south/west it'll continue. Additional
MCS over central Indiana should continue to move south-southeast and
should arrive in our northern area this evening. The exact evolution
of this is even more uncertain due to the unknowns with this
afternoon's potential convection. There is reason to believe that
the second round should maintain some intensity and bring another
round of thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and heavy
rain. This structure does have some mid level support as an impulse
transits through the Ohio Valley this evening/tonight. This should
move through the area this evening and into tonight before we begin
to dry out. Given the general uncertainty and lower-than-normal
confidence with this forecast, please monitor the forecast if you
have any outdoor work or activities planned this afternoon - evening.

Wednesday through Friday... this period remains unsettled with the
potential for additional showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. A
strong ridge remains off to our west and a trough to our east over
the NE CONUS. This places us in a favorable area for daily
shower/thunderstorm chances through Friday evening. There will be a
non-zero chance for a few of these storm to become strong to severe
and able to produce heavy rainfall. There isn't a clear signal for
any one area but rather a broad brush approach given the unstable
airmass and northwest flow aloft. The finer details won't be
resolved likely until the day of given the lower confidence tied to
this pattern.

Saturday through Early Next Week... The western ridge axis will
build into the area this weekend. This will allow warmer
temperatures to settle in through the start of next week.
Precipitation chances will continue through the weekend, but the
chance of any organized convection will be much lower. If the ridge
builds in further east, we may even stay mostly dry Saturday/Sunday,
which would welcomed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Overall, VFR conditions are expected outside of any passing
thunderstorm. Showers and storms are expected in some capacity
through this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Confidence in
timing and coverage is low at the moment. Amendments may be
needed prior to the 00Z TAF issuance. If we do see a strong line
of convection move out of KY and down into TN, then TRI and
perhaps TYS may see 40 to 50kt wind gusts as this line moves
through. Again, low confidence as of now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  93  74  94 /  40  30  20  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  90  73  91 /  40  40  30  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  90  72  91 /  40  30  30  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  86  69  87 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
224 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-121830-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
224 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 /124 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and
evening, primarily in southwest Virginia and our northern
Tennessee counties. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, but
heavy rain and isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

An active, northwest flow pattern will continue through late this
week. This pattern has the potential to produce several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, especially for our northern counties.
While widespread severe storms aren't likely, some damaging winds
could occur with the stronger storms. In addition to heavy rain
and isolated flash flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

BH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
517 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ENE Hampton           36.29N 82.13W
08/11/2026                   Carter             TN   Public

            Carter County dispatch reports a few trees
            down but no significant damage. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
524 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NCZ060-TNZ102-112215-
Cherokee NC-East Polk TN-
524 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ducktown, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ducktown, Copperhill, Culberson, and Hot House.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8440 3500 8442 3512 8436 3500 8400
      3499 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 297DEG 15KT 3504 8434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
546 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

TNZ099-100-112230-
Bradley TN-Hamilton TN-
546 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BRADLEY AND CENTRAL
HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lakesite, or 9 miles north of Chattanooga, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Cleveland, Soddy-Daisy, Walden, Lakesite, Harrison,
Fairmount, Collegedale, North Chickamauga Creek Gorge, and Harrison
Bay State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 8533 3529 8526 3519 8490 3502 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 299DEG 15KT 3520 8521

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
550 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

TNZ015-016-112215-
Hancock TN-Hawkins TN-
550 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HAWKINS AND CENTRAL
HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 550 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sneedville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rogersville and Klondike.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 8320 3654 8315 3647 8293 3636 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 299DEG 10KT 3648 8312

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

27

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
617 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Church Hill         36.52N 82.69W
08/11/2026                   Hawkins            TN   911 Call Center

            Public report confirmed by 911 call center.
            Culvert along Silver Lake Road overflowing
            with estimated 4 inches of water across
            roadway.

&&