Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
118 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Potential for isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe
showers and thunderstorms through this evening, primarily impacting
northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia. Damaging winds are the
primary threat with isolated flash flooding. Low-end threat for
severe hail or tornadic activity.

- Heat Advisory continues for the southern TN Valley this afternoon
with heat index values around 105.

- Dry weather with more moderate temps/humidity from Wednesday
through Friday.

- A wet pattern returns for the weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A complex situation of various boundaries, stable layers, and upper
level forcing lead to low confidence in the details of how
convection will evolve through the rest of the afternoon and
evening. A linear boundary is evident in satellite, stretching from
near Nashville to our KY/VA border counties, with another boundary
located farther north across south central and eastern KY.
Convective towers are noted in the KY/VA border area with these
boundaries. Morning convection in NE TN has created a thermal
boundary between Knoxville and Morristown from storm outflow and
differential heating from cloud cover. Satellite shows clearing
northeast of this boundary, so the air mass in NE TN and SW VA
should recover most its instability. South and west of this
boundary, the air mass appears to be capped. Aloft, an upper jet
nose is over our NE sections, with 500 mb vorticity in that area as
well.

The bottom line of these features is that a second round of
showers/storms is expected in our NE sections where the upper
forcing and surface boundaries can interact. Bulk effective shear of
35-40 kt and MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon will mean a
threat of severe storms, with damaging winds as the primary threat,
and a lesser but non-zero threat of large hail and an isolated
tornado. Some of this activity could make it into the central TN
Valley, if mesoscale forcing from outflow boundaries can overcome
midlevel capping - the southern and western extent of convection is
a big question mark. Again, the main threat area is likely east of I-
75 and north of I-40. Flash flooding will be a concern where
training of storms occurrs, especially in NE TN/SW VA where 1-hr FFG
is only 1.3-1.5 inches. Storm motion from NW to SE may align with
residual boundaries from the morning convection, leading to training
cells with high rainfall rates.

Wednesday through Friday will feature some very pleasant conditions
for the start of August. With a trough over the Atlantic coast and a
northerly flow across our area, temperatures will drop slightly
below normal. Humidity will also trend lower into Thursday before a
trend upward begins Friday - afternoon dewpoints will be in the 60s,
and some low temps in the 50s will be possible in northern sections.

A wet pattern may develop again over the weekend as a closed upper
low drops SW from the upper Plains into the Mid MS-OH Valley region
and stays parked to our west through the rest of the forecast
period. A deep southerly flow from the Gulf will provide rain
chances each day from Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Showers/storms are expected at TRI this afternoon, with lesser rain
chances at TYS. CHA is expected to remain dry in a more stable
environment. Confdience is low regarding timing of storms, so will
carry TEMPO/PROB30 for much of the afternoon and evening at
TRI/TYS. With TRI having the best chance of seeing rain today,
will have low cigs developing there later tonight. This could also
happen at TYS if rain occurs there. A drier air mass builds in
tomorrow with a N-NE wind, and should dissipate any morning cloud
cover by 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  90  67  88 /  20   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  87  64  85 /  40   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  87  64  86 /  20   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  82  59  82 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-290630-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
230 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 /130 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Through this evening, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible
in East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Damaging winds are the
main threat, with lower risks for hail, a tornado, and flooding.
Storms should exit the area around 8 to 9 PM EDT.

Hot and humid conditions this afternoon with a heat index of 100
to 105 for the central and southern TN Valley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information
about severe weather to the NWS.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
519 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

TNZ040-041-070-073-282215-
Cocke Smoky Mountains TN-Jefferson TN-Northwest Cocke TN-
North Sevier TN-
519 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN COCKE AND
NORTHEASTERN SEVIER COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 519 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dandridge, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jefferson City, Newport, Dandridge, New Market, Baneberry,
Parrottsville, Del Rio, Bird Crossing, Fairgarden, and Bybee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
east Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 8328 3578 8328 3578 8329 3581 8328
      3580 8332 3600 8361 3615 8349 3598 8296
      3577 8313 3577 8316 3573 8319 3573 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 299DEG 25KT 3601 8343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
521 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Johnson City      36.37N 82.38W
07/28/2026                   Washington         TN   Amateur Radio

            Power lines down State of Franklin Road and
            Bristol Highway.

&&

NAW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
524 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Watauga             36.32N 82.30W
07/28/2026                   Carter             TN   Law Enforcement

            Several trees down across the county.

&&

dh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
524 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

TNZ015>017-039-040-042-044>047-VAZ001-002-005-282215-
Sullivan TN-Washington TN-Hamblen TN-Hancock TN-Northwest Cocke TN-
Southeast Carter TN-Unicoi TN-Hawkins TN-Northwest Greene TN-
Northwest Carter TN-Scott VA-Lee VA-Wise VA-
524 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HAWKINS...NORTHEASTERN COCKE...
GREENE...NORTHERN UNICOI...WESTERN SULLIVAN...WASHINGTON...EASTERN
HANCOCK...SOUTHWESTERN CARTER...NORTHEASTERN HAMBLEN...SOUTHWESTERN
WISE...LEE AND SCOTT COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF NORTON THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Smith to near Jonesville to 9 miles
southeast of Pennington Gap. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Kingsport, Greeneville, Elizabethton, Erwin,
Rogersville, Norton, Wise, Gate City, and Sneedville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
east Tennessee...and southwestern Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8217 3602 8305 3669 8336 3674 8320
      3674 8314 3678 8313 3680 8310 3683 8310
      3684 8307 3685 8307 3685 8301 3687 8291
      3690 8287 3691 8287 3693 8286 3694 8286
      3706 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 315DEG 30KT 3669 8324 3663 8306 3664 8296

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
530 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

TNZ015-016-VAZ001-282200-
Hancock TN-Hawkins TN-Lee VA-
530 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HAWKINS...
NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN LEE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 530 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jonesville, moving south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rogersville, Sneedville, Surgoinsville, Kyles Ford, and Klondike.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
east Tennessee...and southwestern Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8303 3661 8299 3660 8299 3659 8297
      3646 8282 3639 8318 3665 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 338DEG 27KT 3661 8311

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BPH