Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Morristown, TN

875 
WGUS74 KMRX 231347
FFSMRX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
947 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

TNC009-123-231357-
/O.CAN.KMRX.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260723T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Blount TN-Monroe TN-
947 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BLOUNT AND CENTRAL MONROE
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

&&

LAT...LON 3546 8396 3541 8402 3539 8401 3535 8402
      3535 8404 3534 8404 3540 8440 3552 8447
      3560 8391 3547 8394 3546 8395

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
123 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Very heavy rainfall will be possible with a threat of flash
flooding overnight into Thursday over our south and southeast
counties.

- High resolution models continue to show a heavy rain axis from
roughly Hamilton county eastward to Monroe and Polk counties in TN,
and Cherokee and Clay counties in NC overnight into Thursday. That
is the area of highest concern.

-Additional showers and storms at times for the Friday through the
end of the forecast period, especially across the south Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The main concern for the forecast period remains the possibility of
additional flooding issues overnight and during the day Thursday. As
of 10 PM EDT on Wed July 22nd, a cold front was situated in the TN
valley, stretching southwestward into northern AL and MS. This is
going to interact with a northward surging boundary (possibly a
strong sea breeze aided by southerly low level flow on the
northeastern periphery of TS Bertha) in the coming hours, kicking
off more robust shower and thunderstorms from northern AL east-
northeastward into the southern TN valley and our western NC
counties. Similar to last night, CAM guidance has been insistent on
a fairly narrow swath of higher rainfall amounts with good
probabilities of seeing over 5" of rain. This seems very plausible
given confluent WSW low level flow and the high likelihood of
training convection. Some brief storms in McMinn, Monroe, and
southwest Blount county over the last couple of hours have radar
estimates in the 2-3" range already. The Flood Watch that was
issued for the southern areas seems well warranted and I see no
reason for changes. In terms of timing, it once again seems like
an overnight through mid/late morning threat window.

By late morning the influence of TS Bertha will be weakening, with
increasingly northerly surface flow across the CWA and falling upper
heights as shortwave energy moves in. This should push the front and
associated rainfall threat just south of our area by the mid
afternoon hours Thursday. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see
some lingering heavy rain/flooding threat in our far southeast TN
and western NC counties well into the afternoon hours before the
front is more confidently to our south.

For Friday onward, the general trend will be a building ridge out
west and a deepening eastern CONUS trough. Plenty of shortwave
activity moving from the upper midwest towards the southern
Appalachian region from Friday through next week will result in an
active weather pattern and periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast area. A notable shortwave is seen to
move from the Ozarks eastward across TN/KY on Friday, which should
result in scattered convection across the area Friday afternoon with
fairly decent coverage in the mountains thanks to low level westerly
flow. Otherwise, timing of any one of these shortwaves this weekend
into next weekend is difficult at the moment. Suffice it to say that
there should be several opportunities for showers over the next week.

Temperatures for Thursday into Saturday look to be a bit below
normal, then the remainder of the period will likely see
temperatures back closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Highly variable conditions are expected overnight as on/off
showers affect CHA and TYS, with a range of VFR to IFR conditions
at times. TAFs will try to follow general trends without too many
TEMPOs/PROBs. CHA will have periods of showers all day as a front
stalls near the area. TYS will mainly have showers in the morning
hours, with improving conditions in the afternoon. Rain and MVFR
conditions at TRI at the moment should improve to VFR in the early
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  72  86  72 /  80  30  80  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  69  85  71 /  50  20  50  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  67  85  70 /  20  10  40  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  65  82  67 /  20  20  60  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through this evening for Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk-
     Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

     Flood Watch through this afternoon for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Loudon-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
     Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
232 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-240645-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
232 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 /132 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers with heavy rainfall will continue today across southern
portions of the Tennessee Valley and southwestern North Carolina.
The threat of flooding will continue in those areas, especially
in any locations that see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. A
Flood Watch remains in effect today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chance of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports for flooding impacts today are appreciated.