Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Multiple waves of showers and storms still expected through the region
  through Monday. A Flood watch remains in effect into tonight,
  but may be extended later into Monday.

- Cannot rule out a strong gusty wind or two in any stronger
  thunderstorm.

- More typical summer weather Tuesday onwards with normal
  temperatures and only a low PM chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

As of the current radar rain and thunderstorms are progressing
across a couple areas across East Tennessee, producing lightning and
brief bouts of heavy rain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be randomly distributed through this morning and continue to pose a
flooding risk.

A large swath of northeastern Tennessee into southwestern Virginia
cannot take any more sustained moderate to heavy rains after the
heavy rainfall from yesterday. And yet the storm chances with the
cutoff low in our vicinity will continue. For those who have
already seen significant rainfall and suffered flooding as a
result, you need to remain vigilant and be prepared to take
additional actions.

Looking at various guidance, once more we have various solutions.
00z HRRR is one of the more aggressive outputs, with scattered
thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Storms will not be constant, we
will still see regular lulls, but should the more widespread
convection modeled come to fruition we'll definitely see additional
scattered flooding events. The rest of the guidance has various
degrees of scattered storms, but generally not as widespread of an
interpretation as the HRRR. The worrisome thing is the 00z HRRR
initialized fairly well and handled the initial 6 hours pretty
solidly, and so I'd probably lean slightly more in that general
direction. The overall setup is still favorable, with an anomalously
moist atmosphere and the presence of the closed low. Thunderstorms
will continue to possess the ability of producing 2-4" per hour
rainfall rates, and any amount of training or persistence of high
rain rates will produce flooding for those who are already super
saturated in their soil conditions.

Locations in the southernmost Tennessee Valley, meanwhile, are
better off, needing 2" or so over the full course of an hour to
produce flooding. As long as storms continue moving or don't move in
parallel with each other, flood risk is relatively lower for
southeastern Tennessee and southwestern North Carolina. However, if
they get repeated bouts, they will see flooding too. As far as
severe weather, with as saturated as the profiles are if storms
can get tall enough and strong enough they'll pose a risk for
gusty winds, which will be more prone to felling trees in
waterlogged areas. But severe weather isn't expected to be
widespread.

The upper low is forecast to hang around in the Mid South region
through Monday/Tuesday, and so rain chances will stick around. Seems
like the low dips to the south before it heads west, and so storm
chances on Tuesday are relegated more to Chattanooga and other
southern counties. Still, scattered thunderstorms on Monday pose a
continued flood risk for already saturated areas. We will continue
to monitor the modeled storm coverage and risks in order to
determine if the flood watch needs to be extended into Monday.

Eventually as we progress into the week, the closed low will drift
to the west, and we will return to a more typical July pattern of
daily warm weather, and moderately high upper heights. We'll keep
our relatively moist atmosphere, so a daily diurnal pulse of
afternoon to early evening storms will remain with us.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Showers and storms will be around during the period. There
continues to be uncertainty in exact timing, but it currently
appears that thunderstorms are likely early in the period
especially TRI and CHA, followed by a several hour period of
lower probability of thunder before thunder chances pick up again
this afternoon all sites. Will cover the higher probability times
with tempo and prob30 thunder groups. VFR conditions are expected
for much of the period all sites, with MVFR or lower conditions
expected with some of the showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  70  83  70 /  70  60  80  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  69  82  68 /  80  80  90  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  68  83  68 /  80  80  80  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  66  80  64 /  80  40  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky
     Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
     Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
     Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-130645-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
231 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 /131 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional scattered showers and storms will continue today and into
tonight. A few strong wind gusts are possible with any stronger
thunderstorm. A Flood Watch remains in effect. Flood risk is
highest for those who have already seen significant rainfall, on
account of their saturated soil conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional showers and storms are expected Monday, with storm
chances lessening on Tuesday and returning to a more regular
isolated to scattered nature Wednesday and the remainder of the
week. The Flood Watch may need to be extended to cover Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested as the flood threat continues
through Sunday night.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1252 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

TNZ040>045-120545-
Cocke Smoky Mountains TN-Washington TN-Northwest Greene TN-
Northwest Cocke TN-Southeast Greene TN-Unicoi TN-
1252 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN COCKE...SOUTHERN GREENE AND SOUTHWESTERN UNICOI COUNTIES
THROUGH 145 AM EDT...

At 1252 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parrottsville, or 11 miles northeast of Newport, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greeneville, Erwin, Tusculum, Parrottsville, Banner Hill, Caney
Branch, Cedar Creek, Camp Creek, and Rocky Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8248 3595 8256 3597 8261 3601 8261
      3603 8259 3607 8263 3600 8278 3598 8279
      3597 8277 3592 8282 3595 8287 3595 8290
      3593 8290 3593 8292 3592 8291 3592 8292
      3596 8315 3618 8308 3613 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 279DEG 23KT 3605 8302

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH