Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
307 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected this
  afternoon. Isolated flooding and gusty winds are the primary
  concerns with the strongest activity.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the
  forecast period.

- Conditions will also be humid with no relief in sight until
  possibly next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

H3 ridging is in place over the southeastern CONUS, with an upper
low having developed over the southern plains. This setup continues
to promote enhanced diffluence aloft among an airmass with highly
anomalous moisture availability. Latest mesoscale analysis suggest
PWAT values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which is well into the 90th
percentile per sounding climatology for KBNA. With an MCV expected
to work north/northeast this afternoon and evening, have decided to
introduce a short-fused Flash Flood Watch. Latest 12Z suite and
hourly runs of CAMs all generally have some variation of swaths of 2
to 4 inch rainfall totals... locations more so isolated and
variable. With 1hr FFGs ranging from 1.8 to as low as 1.2 inches,
and 3 hr FFGs largely 1.5-2.0 inches, isolated flash flooding will
be conditional on training areas of moderate to heavy precipitation.
Overall, the highest confidence of isolated flash flooding is for
areas south of I-40 and along and west of I-75. It is also possible
to see some locally gusty winds under the strongest convection.

Bulk of the rain gradually wanes southwest to northeast tonight,
with the potential for some breezy winds in the mountains as slight
enhancement to roughly 25-30kts is expected in the southerly H85
flow. Best chance for some lingering morning Memorial Day showers
will be in the far northeast. A vort max will promote development of
additional showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening as upper
diffluence and anomalous PWAT values remain in place. Some
additional isolated flooding issues may arise during this time as
well, but confidence is a little lower as the CAMs have not been in
the greatest agreement on how well activity holds together or how
great the coverage is. This is why the Flash Flood Watch was not
carried through tomorrow evening, allowing us to keep monitoring and
assessing new data as it comes through.

Overall, no significant change is expected in the synoptic pattern
as we head into the mid-week. Daily chances of showers and storms
will continue, and that may come with some flooding concerns
partially conditional on how exactly the previous days activity pans
out. There is also no standout threat for any strong to severe
storms, but with such anomalous PWAT content, heaviest downpours can
also lead to locally gusty winds due to precip loading.

Some models are hinting that a front could push to our south late in
the period, with drier air moving into our area sometime next
weekend. However, there is no consensus on this scenario for now
and the ensemble approach of the NBM shows showers and storms
again both days, albeit, PoPs trending a bit lower by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Unsettled pattern continues with additional showers and storms
moving into the area this afternoon and evening. Maintain
predominant MVFR conditions at KCHA based on latest sfc obs and
radar trends, but there may be a period where they transition to
low VFR for a few before returning to MVFR again tomorrow
morning. Different from previous nights, HREF probs of MVFR or
cigs increase to the 40-70% range for TYS/TRI Monday morning, so
have included a transition to MVFR conditions at those sites as
well. There will be the potential to have some fog or br develop
due to saturated PBL tonight, but due to expected cloud cover,
confidence not high enough to include a mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  78  65  81 /  70  90  70  90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  78  64  81 /  90  80  70  90
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  77  63  80 /  80  80  70  90
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  77  61  81 /  80  80  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday for Anderson-
     Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
     Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
     Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
307 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-251915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
307 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026 /207 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, and a few may
have strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours that could lead
to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday. Once
again, a few may have strong wind gusts and heavy downpours that
could result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
606 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

TNZ083-084-099-242245-
Rhea TN-Hamilton TN-Meigs TN-
606 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT RHEA...CENTRAL MEIGS AND
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 606 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Dayton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Decatur, Soddy-Daisy, Spring City, Graysville, Flat Top
Mountain, Peakland, Stinging Fork Falls State Park, Big Spring, and
Evensville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 8524 3545 8517 3545 8515 3547 8512
      3550 8514 3553 8512 3553 8510 3555 8511
      3559 8508 3573 8494 3564 8471 3532 8491
      3524 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 213DEG 26KT 3541 8506

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
641 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

TNZ067-068-085-086-242330-
Northwest Monroe TN-Roane TN-Loudon TN-McMinn TN-
641 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOUDON...NORTHEASTERN MCMINN...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND EASTERN ROANE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 640 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sweetwater, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Ridge, Lenoir City, Kingston, Sweetwater, Loudon, Madisonville,
Vonore, Greenback, Philadelphia, and Paint Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8459 3599 8444 3594 8429 3590 8427
      3580 8417 3577 8418 3576 8415 3574 8417
      3571 8417 3567 8416 3567 8414 3548 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 210DEG 20KT 3563 8439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KS