Storm Warning 3, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
122 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potentially historic snow storm is expected Saturday night
  through Monday night. This will create dangerous travel
  conditions and could result in tree damage and power outages.

- Snow amounts of 1-3 feet are expected with wind speeds of
  30-60 mph. Strongest winds are expected in the Keweenaw
  Peninsula and along the lakeshores of Lake Superior.

- The entire forecast area is under a Winter Storm Warning and
  its likely that many locations will be upgraded to Blizzard
  Warnings once confidence in timing of blizzard conditions
  increases.

- Large waves on the Great Lakes will increase the risk of beach erosion
  and lakeshore flooding for Menominee and Delta counties
  Sunday and all Lake Superior lakeshores Sunday night and
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The main item in this forecast period is the potential historic
winter storm that's anticipated to impact the Upper Great Lakes late
tonight/early Sunday through Monday night. The prolonged nature of
very strong winds and quickly accumulating, blowing, and drifting
snow will result in dangerous travel conditions and the risk of
power outages Sunday and Monday. Please take advantage of today's
pleasant weather to finish any pre-storm preparations and avoid
traveling Sunday and Monday.

Synoptic snowfall from yesterday's storm has exited to the east,
leaving light lake effect snow in its wake over portions of western
and eastern Upper Michigan. Northwest winds have also lighten, with
most observation sites in the region near 10 mph winds. Exceptions
are along the immediate lakeshores of Lake Superior, where 20-25 mph
winds are still being observed. Temperatures have been in the 20s
and teens. Upstream surface high will build into the region today,
resulting in the continued diminishing snow showers overnight and a
mix of partly cloudy to clear skies today. Daytime highs will peak
in the low to mid 30s for most today. Increasing cloud cover is
expected by afternoon from southwest to northeast as the main event
begins taking shape.

This evening, a vigorous shortwave will eject out of the Rockies,
helping to organize a surface low over the Plains. Sunday, this
surface low will lift to near Chicago, then proceed slowly
northeastward through lower Michigan overnight. The shortwave will
then become negatively tilted near western Lake Michigan Monday,
thereby helping the surface low deepen to near 980mb over Lake Huron
or near the Straits. Ahead of the low, a very strong 40-65kt 925-
850mb low level jet will help advect robust Gulf moisture north into
the system while behind it, a slowly weakening 1036mb high will
stretch across the Plains. This, in addition to increasing synoptic
forcing, will result widespread heavy snow and very strong winds
across the entire the forecast area Sunday and Monday.

Onset of snow looks to begin along the stateline counties between 2-
5z Sunday, then progressively lift north-northeast to most of the
forecast area by 12z Sunday morning. Snow will then continue through
Monday before tapering Monday night into Tuesday as the surface low
lifts into Quebec while extending bent back surface troughing into
eastern Upper Michigan. 850mb temps near -10C will cool as
additional cold air advection builds overhead, bringing 850mb temps
down to near -22C by Tuesday morning. Because of ample synoptic,
lake enhanced, and orographic forcing, and model sounding DGZ depths
near or greater than 10k feet for long periods of time, guidance is
suggesting widespread 1 to 3 feet of snow through the event. The
latest REFS favors the heaviest snow Saturday night after midnight
through Sunday, when snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are most
favored (up to 70% chance) for all areas east of the Spine, which is
more likely to see 1 inch per hour rates (up to 60% chance). 1 inch
per hour rates are favored Sunday night through Monday (50-90%
chance), mainly central and east with lighter snowfall rates
elsewhere. East-northeast winds will begin increasing Sunday,
peaking near 40 mph for most inland locations and 50+ in the terrain
of the Keweenaw and by the lakeshores by evening. These winds
further increase Sunday night into Monday morning from the northeast
to north, when 60+ mph will be possible in the Keweenaw and by Lake
Superior, with 40-50mph being possible elsewhere. Latest NBM mean
gusts for most of the east half are in the 40s, with near 60 by the
Lake Superior lakeshore and Keweenaw. It should be noted that the 0z
EC deterministic suggests 60-70 mph winds along the lakeshore from
Big Bay to Whitefish Point Monday and near 60 mph winds for interior
eastern areas. Should these winds occur, tree damage and power
outages should be expected. Northerly to northwesterly Winds are
expected to lighten Monday night, but still remain elevated near
Lake Superior into Tuesday.

Lake effect snow may continue through the day Tuesday downwind of
Lake Superior in the traditional northwest wind snowbelts, but a
surface high moving south of the region will help winds shift to
westerly and then southwesterly from west to east by evening.

Behind the storm, polar air will keep below normal temperatures
across the region, with highs Monday and Tuesday only getting into
the teens to lower 20s and lows Monday and Tuesday nights dropping
down into the single digits in the interior to lower teens near the
Great Lakes. Wind chills will also fall to near -10F during the
overnight hours Monday and Tuesday nights. A weak clipper may also
bring another shot of snow Wednesday before we warm back up closer
to normal for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions continue with light winds through this evening. A
major winter storm with blizzard conditions will impact all of the
terminals beginning after midnight tonight, with heavy snow and high
winds continuing through Monday before gradually tapering off Monday
night into Tuesday. Snowfall will begin around 05Z at IWD, spreading
to SAW around 08Z and CMX 10Z. There is high confidence in
visibility falling below airport minimums at SAW/CMX by the mid to
late morning hours as snowfall rates reach 1-2" per hour and winds
gust to 25-30 knots. There is also a possibility of visiblity below
airport minimums at IWD with a PROB30 to address that potential. All
told, snowfall will total 1 to 3 feet through Monday night, highest
at SAW. Northeasterly to northerly winds will keep increasing after
the 18Z TAF period, gusting to 40-50 knots at CMX/SAW Sunday night
into Monday, with 30-35 knots possible at IWD, resulting in extreme
blowing and drifting of snow and whiteout conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A very strong to historic storm will move through the Upper Great
Lakes Sunday and Monday. This will result in increasing winds
Sunday, likely reaching Gales by morning and then Storms Sunday
evening. Some guidance packages also suggest hurricane force winds
Monday for most of the east half of the lake. Additionally, these
strong winds and cold air overhead will create Heavy Freezing Spray.
Winds diminish slowly Monday night, falling below Gales lakewide
Tuesday morning.

A clipper low moves through the region Wednesday, resulting in
southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots across the lake before falling
below 20kts Wednesday evening.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     MIZ001>005-013-084.

  Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     MIZ006-007-014-085.

  Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for
     MIZ009>012.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday to 2 AM EDT /1 AM
     CDT/ Tuesday for LSZ162.

  Gale Warning from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Sunday for LSZ240>242-263.

  Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
     LSZ240>242-263.

  Gale Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ243>250-
     264>266.

  Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for
     LSZ243>250-264>266.

  Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ251-267.

  Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for
     LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning for
     LMZ248-250.

&&

DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...Thompson
MARINE...JTP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
351 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-150800-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
351 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 /251 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan and western Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Potentially historic snow storm is expected tonight through
Monday night. This will create dangerous travel conditions and
could result in tree damage and power outages. Storm total snow
amounts of 1-3 feet are expected with wind speeds of 30-60 mph.
Strongest winds are expected in the Keweenaw Peninsula and along
the lakeshores of Lake Superior. The entire forecast area is
under a Winter Storm Warning and its likely that many locations
will be upgraded to Blizzard Warnings once confidence in timing of
blizzard conditions increases.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Potentially historic snow storm is expected tonight through
Monday night. This will create dangerous travel conditions and
could result in tree damage and power outages. Storm total snow
amounts of 1-3 feet are expected with wind speeds of 30-60 mph.
Strongest winds are expected in the Keweenaw Peninsula and along
the lakeshores of Lake Superior. The entire forecast area is
under a Winter Storm Warning and its likely that many locations
will be upgraded to Blizzard Warnings once confidence in timing of
blizzard conditions increases.

Large waves on the Great Lakes will increase the risk of beach
erosion and lakeshore flooding for Menominee and Delta counties
Sunday and all Lake Superior lakeshores Sunday night and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-150800-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
351 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 /251 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake
Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A strong low pressure will bring widespread gales and storm force
winds to the lake Sunday into Monday. In addition, heavy freezing
spray is expected to return late Sunday and continue through
Monday night. See the latest Open Lake Forecast, Marine Weather
Message, and Marine Discussion for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-150800-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
351 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A strong low pressure could bring high-end gales up to 45 knots
Sunday through Monday. There is up to a 20% chance for storm
force gusts up to 48 knots by Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

JTP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1034 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Snow             4 NNE Cusino Lake       46.52N 86.24W
03/14/2026  M6.3 Inch        Alger              MI   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station MI-AG-15 Shingleton 16.3
            NE. The period of the Snow event was 48
            hours.

0800 AM     Snow             3 W Gladstone           45.84N 87.09W
03/14/2026  M7.0 Inch        Delta              MI   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station MI-DL-8 Gladstone 3.3 W.
            The period of the Snow event was 48 hours.

0800 AM     Snow             1 NW Garden Corners     45.90N 86.55W
03/14/2026  M9.8 Inch        Delta              MI   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station MI-DL-1 Garden Corners 0.8
            NW. The period of the Snow event was 48
            hours.

0900 AM     Snow             5 SSE Watersmeet        46.20N 89.13W
03/14/2026  M9.0 Inch        Gogebic            MI   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station MI-GG-4 Watersmeet 5.0 SE.
            The period of the Snow event was 48 hours.

0800 AM     Snow             Painesdale              47.04N 88.67W
03/14/2026  M8.4 Inch        Houghton           MI   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station PDLM4 Painesdale. The
            period of the Snow event was 48 hours.

0900 AM     Snow             Hancock                 47.13N 88.60W
03/14/2026  M8.4 Inch        Houghton           MI   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station MI-HG-24 Hancock 0.1 ENE.
            The period of the Snow event was 48 hours.

0800 AM     Snow             1 ESE Marquette         46.55N 87.38W
03/14/2026  M2.0 Inch        Marquette          MI   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station MRQM4 Marquette. The
            period of the Snow event was 48 hours.

0920 AM     Snow             Paulding                46.40N 89.18W
03/14/2026  M7.2 Inch        Ontonagon          MI   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station PDGM4 Paulding. The
            period of the Snow event was 48 hours.

0700 AM     Snow             1 S Manistique          45.95N 86.25W
03/14/2026  M12.5 Inch       Schoolcraft        MI   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station MTQM4 Manistique
            WWTP. The period of the Snow event was 48
            hours.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1035 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Snow             1 N Trowbridge Park     46.57N 87.43W
03/13/2026  M3.7 Inch        Marquette          MI   Public

            Storm total.

&&

DBT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1036 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Snow             1 E Hurley              46.45N 90.17W
03/13/2026  M13.1 Inch       Gogebic            MI   Public

            24-hour storm total starting 9pm Thursday.

&&

DBT

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