Beach Hazards Statement 3, NWS Marquette, MI

746 
WHUS43 KMQT 240213
CFWMQT

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1013 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

MIZ014-240315-
/O.EXP.KMQT.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-260524T0200Z/
Southern Schoolcraft-
1013 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
249 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds may locally cause
  conditions hazardous to recreational small craft and increase
  the risk of rip currents. Check the forecast for Small Craft
  Advisories and/or Beach Hazard Statements if your Memorial Day
  weekend plans include time on or in the Great Lakes!

- A warming trend in the forecast may cause increased heat risk
  for vulnerable/sensitive populations as well as summer- like
  afternoon thunderstorms for the first half of next week,
  though uncertainty remains high.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

The going forecast remains on track as radar reflectivity plots show
scattered showers over the UP west coast associated with a
vertically stacked low rotating over the eastern half of the
Dakotas while cloud cover overspreads the rest of the UP
associated with a weaker shortwave centered over the southern
extent of the Great Lakes basin. While precip totals are pretty
underwhelming (HREF 90th percentile precip accumulation by the
end of the weekend is not much north of a quarter inch), the
gusty winds look to bring the most impacts this Memorial Day
weekend as long-duration easterly to southeasterly winds will
drive gusts and waves that may be hazardous to recreational
small craft in some areas such as Pictured Rocks National
Lakeshore as well as causing rip current risks at beaches along
the north shore of Lake Michigan. Those with plans to recreate
in the Great Lakes should check the forecast first - know before
you go!

Beyond the weekend, the weather impacts of note highlighted by the
NBM are for a chance of diurnal thunderstorms inland of the Great
Lakes Monday and Tuesday afternoon as well as unseasonable heat for
the first half of the week, peaking on Tuesday. GFS soundings at IMT
show very little CIN in the afternoon hours with several hundred to
the low 1000s range of CAPE, however, virtually no shear in the
bottom 6km and plenty of dry air in different parts of the
column. This initially suggests the potential for some strong,
yet disorganized and short-lived convection those days. Finer
mesoscale details of the pattern may prove to have high leverage
in the forecast on those days, and the global ensembles are too
spread out to give a full assessment of the risk at this point.
As far as heat goes, the LREF currently gives only around 30%
chances for the interior west to reach 85 degrees on Tuesday
while the NBM deterministic shows highs into the 90s for a
stretch between Iron Mountain and southern Houghton County.
Clearly, there is some spread as to the high temperature
forecast as well, but the potential does exist for temperatures
to begin to be hot enough to affect those who are
vulnerable/sensitive to heat, so interested parties should keep
an eye on the forecast trends over the next few days to assess
the heat risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Amended at 245 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Attention turns to the troughing pivoting from the Plains,
moving over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today. The more
rigorous shortwave over the Northern Plains looks to swing
northward through MN and into the Manitoba/Ontario border
region, while the southern shortwave tracks into the Ohio Valley
and eventually the Lower Great Lakes. These features both bring
weak low pressure systems with them, but the best lift remains
outside the CWA. Still, weak isentropic ascent may be enough to
produce some showers, and soundings are moist enough for some
light accumulations Saturday through tonight. Probabilities for
at least 0.25 inches of rain only peak at around 15-30% over
the far western UP, with most of the UP looking to pick up
totals below a tenth of an inch.

A trailing shortwave trough on Sunday yields a 15-30% chance
for showers and weak thunderstorms with a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE
available, likely less than 500 J/kg (50% chance greater than
500j/kg in the south-central), and bulk shear struggling to reach 25-
30 kts. Another weak shortwave ripples through Monday, while a more
moist, unstable airmass develops with as much as 1000j/kg of CAPE
and up to 30kts of bulk shear. The ingredients are thus present for
some decent convection...but forcing for development is
questionable. Additional chance PoPs on Tuesday are a result of a
clipper system to the north, but shear drops off to 25 kts or less.
Then high pressure develops, favoring dry weather into the latter
part of next week. Expect highs to warm back into the 70s to mid 80s
for most early next week, cooler 60s by the lakeshores. Lows rise
into the mid 40s to 50s. Forecast confidence quickly falls off by
late next week as models struggle to resolve a closed low that
develops over the west CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Broad weak low pressure just upstream of the UP this morning is
leading to some scattered weak showers over the west half of the UP,
which will cause a long period of 30% chances of rain for the TAF
sites for most of the period. The increasingly moist airmass moving
over the area will cause a gradual descent from the ongoing VFR
conditions to MVFR with up to 40 percent chances of IFR ceilings at
all sites after 00Z tonight. Expect the winds generally out of the
southeast to continue through the period, though decreasing in
intensity and gustiness with later times in the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Amended at 245 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Winds settle to 20 kts or less over the west half by this
morning, but east half winds remain elevated between 20-30 kts.
Winds fall off tonight as the low pressures dissipate, likely
remaining below 20 kts through much of next week as high
pressure returns to the Great Lakes.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

UPDATE...GS
DISCUSSION...LC/GS
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...LC/GS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
319 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-231930-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
319 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026 /219 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan and western Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-231930-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
319 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026 /219 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake
Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-231930-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
319 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

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