Beach Hazards Statement 2, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
304 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures approaching freezing this morning likely will
  result in frost away from the Great Lakes. Frost Advisories
  are in effect.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible (40-60% chance)
  this afternoon as winds gusts increase to 20-25 mph with
  humidities falling into the 20s and highs in the upper 50s and
  60s.

- Dry weather through tonight is followed up by light rain this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

The going forecast remains mostly on track this morning as GOES-East
Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery shows just a few areas of high
cirrus streaming in from the west and southwest. This with slightly
stronger winds than this morning have slightly reduced the
efficiency of radiational cooling, yet once again, 5Z RTMA temps are
pacing multiple degrees cooler than hourly NBM temps, so the
forecast min temps this morning will resemble something closer to
the 10th percentile, and just based on pattern recognition, it would
not be surprising if the NBM was underdispersed in that regard once
again. Will keep the ongoing Frost Advisories, though the westward
extent of frost is somewhat uncertain given that some solutions do
show frost into southern Houghton County.

The first aspect of impactful weather once the frost melts will be
the potential for particularly dry weather today with increasing
wind gusts. Despite the aforementioned cloud cover in the morning
period, a consensus of model solutions shows clearing trends in the
daytime hours today. This will help temperatures to continue a
warming trend with forecast highs in the mid 60s with efficient
mixing of very dry air aloft (HREF mean 850mb RHs in the central
UP are ~20% and model soundings show 800mb RHs even lower than
that). That said, if the cloud cover remains overhead and
reduces the efficiency of mixing, RHs may not fall as much as
yesterday. This forecast will reflect minimum RHs in the mid
20s% range away from the cooler Great Lakes shores, but there
are mechanisms for both drier and more moist solutions. The wind
forecast is also somewhat uncertain as hi res guidance shows
potential for wind gusts of 25-30 mph in the interior west today
while the rest of guidance is closer to 20 mph. These
uncertainties combine to muddy the fire weather forecast today.
Will issue an SPS for elevated fire weather conditions to be on
the safe side given past instances of both wind gusts being
higher than forecast and RHs falling below model guidance,
though there is at least some uncertainty present. Conditions
should remain well below critical thresholds.

The aforementioned higher wind gusts are more certain to occur over
the lower-friction waters of the Great Lakes, which will make for
potentially hazardous conditions in some nearshore zones this
evening and tonight ahead of the Memorial Day weekend as well as
moderate-to-high rip current risk for the beaches of Schoolcraft
County west of Manistique and for the beaches near Big Bay on
Saturday, though up to 30 percent chances of precipitation may make
beach conditions suboptimal in the first place. Check the forecast
before heading out for your holiday plans!

Beyond this weekend, confidence in impactful weather is too low to
deviate from the NBM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026
Amended at 303 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes gradually builds into
Quebec/New England through this weekend, but holds ridging over the
CWA into Saturday. This continues dry weather for most through
tonight. Lows this morning will not be quite as cold as the
previous morning due to less optimal placement under the high
pressure, a slight increase in low level moisture from last
night, and light southeast winds instead of calm ideal
conditions. That said, lows are expected in the 30s, coldest
east. There is a 10-30% chance for low lying areas, particularly
in the east, to dip into the upper 20s. Opted to hoist a Frost
Advisory from 12 to 8 am EDT (11 pm to 7 am CDT) for all except
the far western counties/Keweenaw. Friday brings borderline to
possibly elevated fire weather conditions (40-60% chance,
highest southwestern UP). Afternoon highs will be warmer,
peaking in the upper 50s and 60s. Mixing brings RH down into the
20s with winds gusting up to 20-25 mph in the afternoon-early
evening hours.

Attention then turns to the troughing pivoting from the Plains,
moving over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes late Friday night and
Saturday. The broader trough is composed of two main waves. The more
rigorous one over the Northern Plains remains MN westward and the
weaker trough emanating from the Southern Plains remains southeast,
tracking over the Lower Great Lakes. These features both bring weak
low pressure systems with them, but the best lift remains outside
the CWA. Isentropic ascent and minimal PVA scraping the west and
southeastern edges of the UP will squeeze out a few hundreths of QPF
into Saturday night. Probabilities for at least 0.25 inches of rain
have fallen to 10-15% across the CWA except the far western spine of
the UP where 20-40% remains given its proximity to the more vigorous
trough.

A trailing shortwave trough on Sunday yields a 15-30% chance
for showers and weak thunderstorms with a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE
available, likely less than 500 J/kg (60-75% chance), and bulk shear
struggling to reach 25-30 kts. Instability increases (~50% chance
for up to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) alongside better bulk shear up to ~30
kts supporting 15-30% chance of showers and storms in the afternoon
on Memorial Day with a transient shortwave. Around 15% PoPs on
Tuesday are a result of a clipper system to the north, but shear
drops off to 25 kts or less as instability continues to grow. Then
high pressure develops, favoring dry weather into the latter part of
next week. Expect highs to warm back into the 70s to mid 80s for
most early next week, cooler 60s by the lakeshores. Lows rise into
the mid 40s to 50s. Forecast confidence quickly falls off by late
next week as models struggle to resolve a closed low that develops
over the west CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions continue throughout the period as a high pressure
leaves the Great Lakes this evening and a low approaches from the
Northern Plains. Winds remain out of the SE through the period,
becoming gusty beginning this afternoon. Some spotty LLWS is
possible, but confidence in the timing/location details is too low
to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026
Amended at 303 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Easterly winds mainly hold 20 kts or less through this morning
with high pressure overhead. This high pressure shifts northeast
from Lake Superior through Saturday while a low pressure over
the Central Plains lifts north over MN and another low pressure
lifts from the Southern Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. These
features straddle Upper Michigan and Lake Superior with
troughing Saturday night and Sunday as they continue toward
Canada. Easterly winds increase to 20-30 kts by Friday evening
lakewide. Winds settle to 20 kts or less over the west half by
Saturday morning, but east half winds remain elevated between
15-30 kts Friday night through Saturday. Winds fall off Saturday
night as the low pressures dissipate, likely remaining below 20
kts through much of next week as high pressure returns to the
Great Lakes.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     MIZ004>007-010>014-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

UPDATE...GS
DISCUSSION...77/GS
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...77/GS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
411 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-230815-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
411 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026 /311 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan and western Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of frost this morning. This may impact vulnerable plants
and agriculture. See the Frost Advisory for more information.

Elevated wildfire conditions are possible today as RHs fall to
around 25 percent and winds gust around 20 mph. See the Special
Weather Statement for more information.

The risk of rip currents will increase to moderate-to-high levels
for Schoolcraft County beaches west of Manistique. See the Coastal
Hazard Message for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-230815-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
411 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026 /311 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake
Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-230815-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
411 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

GS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
349 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

MIZ002>007-009>014-084>088-095>097-230000-
Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-Gogebic-
Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-Western Chippewa-
Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-Western Mackinac-
Eastern Mackinac-Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
349 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026 /249 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/

...ELEVATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...

Gusty southeast winds as high as 20 to locally 25 mph, combined
with dry conditions will lead to elevated wildfire potential this
afternoon across most of Upper Michigan away from the shorelines
of the Great Lakes.

Avoid outdoor burning today. Immediately report any wildfires
to local emergency services by calling 911.

Burn restrictions remain in effect. For complete details, visit
www.dnr.state.mi.us/burnpermits, or by calling 866-922-2876.

GS