Winter Weather Advisory 13, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Barron County, WI, Polk County, WI, Rusk County, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1221 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry weather expected late Wednesday through Thursday.
  Accumulating snow across central Minnesota & northwest
  Wisconsin, with a wintry mix of sleet & freezing rain across
  southern Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin.

- Another round of wintry weather likely this weekend. Heavy
  snow possible across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Guidance continues to trend towards colder & more wintry
solutions for our upcoming stretch of active weather with the
main time frames of concern being late Wednesday through
Thursday, & late Friday through Saturday.

Wednesday-Thursday system:
Troughing begins to deepen over the central plains Wednesday,
generating a shortwave in the lee of the Rockies that pivots
northwards into the Upper Midwest. Legacy guidance continues to
trend colder in line with the AIFS solutions (which has been
advertising snow for more than a week now), with the main
forecast wrinkle being the low-level temperatures & the
potential for ice across southern MN & western WI. Confidence is
medium to high in several inches of snow accumulation from
central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, & some sort of
wintry mix across southern Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin.
However, confidence is still low on where exactly this
transition zone form snow to a wintry mix will develop, &
whether it'll be predominately sleet, freezing rain, or a mix of
all of the above. Timing-wise, precipitation will begin
Wednesday afternoon across western Minnesota & spread eastwards
through the evening. Precipitation may fall as rain or non-
accumulating snow initially, but transitions to a snow
north/wintry mix south during the evening as temperatures cool
below freezing across central Minnesota/northwest WI, & a warm
nose develops across southern Minnesota due to low-level
temperature advection. The magnitude of this warm nose will be
key to what kind of precipitation we'll see across southern
Minnesota & western Wisconsin during the night. Forecast
soundings generally suggest the most likely scenario will be a
more muted warm nose above an equally cold near-surface layer,
suggesting that sleet may be the predominant precipitation type
with some freezing rain mixing in at times. Less-likely, but
more impactful, would be a much stronger & deeper warm nose
resulting in predominately freezing rain & ice accumulations of
a few tenths of an inch. Further complicating the potential
icing forecast is the role of the warm ground temperatures &
April Sun angle, with the chance for any significant icing
likely having to occur during the overnight/early morning hours.

Impact-wise, current thinking is that this will be more of
Winter Weather Advisory type of system, with slushy snowfall
accumulations of 3-6" from west-central Minnesota into
northwest Wisconsin. Sleet/freezing rain amounts are much less
certain, but the combo of sleet probably being favored over
freezing rain & the warm ground/Sun angle concerns means any
accumulating icing would likely stay on the order of a tenth to
two tenths of an inch. The greatest chance for possible Winter
Storm Warning impacts with this system does look to be from
south- central MN into west-central WI, where icing amounts
would be highest should the scenario for greater icing
potential materialize. The greatest impacts will be Thursday
night through early Friday morning, when precipitation ends &
the rising Sun helps lead to some thawing.

Late Friday - Saturday system:
Immediately following the aforementioned system, the continued
deepening of the tough over the central plains develops a
stacked surface low which then takes a favorable track for
wintry weather through the Upper Midwest. Legacy guidance still
remains spread on where this low may track, & how deep it
becomes, but we've seen a general tend towards the colder &
stronger AIFS solution over the last day or two. This would
result in a swath of accumulating snow, potentially heavy, from
northern & central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. There will
be a lull in the precipitation between the two systems Friday
morning & afternoon, but we'll see precipitation spread
eastwards across western Minnesota through the afternoon &
become heaviest Friday night into Saturday. While confidence is
high that we'll see another round of snow with this second
system, it's still relatively low on just how far south into
central Minnesota & Wisconsin the swath of snow will set up.
AIFS ensemble guidance places the highest probabilities for 3"+
of snow along & north of an Alexandria-St. Cloud-US 8 corridor
in WI line, & we've had no reason to stray far from that
solution so far this winter. Higher resolution deterministic
solutions indicate a greater potential for heavier banded snow
Friday night into Saturday, suggesting greater chances for heavy
snow amounts of 6"+ wherever the main swath of snow develops.
Timing- wise, the greatest impacts from the snow look mainly be
on Saturday, with the snowing ending across the area overnight
into early Sunday morning. Farther south, this system looks to
likely be more of a straightforward rain to snow type of system
with little in the way of winter weather impacts.

In closing, expect a return to winter Wednesday-Thursday & again
this weekend, with further refinements to the forecast & our
winter weather potential coming later today & Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Upstream observations and satellite show a widespread field of
MVFR level stratus streaming southwards across most of the area,
with the 18z TAF expected to see at least intermittent MVFR
conditions for the first several hours at most locations,
delayed by a couple hours at locations more to the south. Winds
also begin gusty at 320-350 with speeds of 10-15 gusting 25kts,
diminishing slowly this evening after 21-22z. VFR upper level
clouds are expected after 00-02z, slowly falling towards the end
of the period with low level VFR eventually becoming MVFR after
end of period as -RASN also becomes possible.

KMSP...Added in a mention of -RASN at 21z, although there is
much higher confidence after 00z as it will take a few hours of
precip falling from mid level clouds to saturate enough to reach
the surface, with guidance handling the timing differently as of
now. The most likely period of -SNPL is after 03z beyond the end
of the period, which is expected to be added over the next
couple TAF issuances.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/-RASN likely, chc IFR/-SNPL. Wind NE 10-15kts.
FRI...MVFR/-RASN, chc IFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RASN, chc IFR/RA. Wind N 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
255 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
010800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
255 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Two rounds of winter weather are expected this week.

Wednesday evening - Thursday: Accumulating snow across central
Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin. Wintry mix of Sleet, freezing
rain, & some light snow across southern Minnesota & west-central
WIsconsin

This weekend: Accumulating snow, potentially heavy, likely across
central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Chance of a wintry mix
across southern Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.