Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
714 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms expected this evening along a passing
  cold front. A few severe thunderstorms could produce large
  hail and gusty winds.

- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather through the
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Tonight...Early morning showers have persisted well into the
afternoon here, limiting the atmosphere from recovering as much.
That said, the combination of some clearing out west and
increasing moisture has allowed a pool of greater instability to
form across western and north-central MN. As the front moves
southeast this evening, we expect isolated to scattered storms
to develop along it, most likely over central MN. Sufficient
wind shear (~30 to 40 kts) and moisture (PWATS ~1.2 to 1.4")
will support the development and organization of at least a few
storms. It is uncertain how many storms will become strong
enough to reach severe limits given the relatively weaker mid
level lapse rates (around 6 to 6.5 C/km). The SPC has
maintained a slight risk of severe weather across a strip of MN
and northwest WI, with a focus on large hail. It is important to
note that not everyone within the risk area will see storms, in
fact most may not see any rain, but that is the best
environment for any storms that do develop to become more
organized. The latest timing favors a later arrival for most
locations, with the initial storms developing around 5-7pm near
Alexandria and Brainerd, then moving southeast towards the Twin
Cities metro and western WI around 9pm-midnight. Storms
west/south of I-94 are more uncertain for storm development,
especially across Minnesota.

This Weekend and Early Next Week...The forecast becomes "boring"
again heading into the weekend as drier air moves in and
northwest flow continues aloft. Temperatures remain very
seasonable, and cloud cover should be pretty limited to your
typical diurnal cumulus clouds each day.

Things shake up a little bit as we head into next week and
heights start to rise aloft. Surface winds shift out of the
south and warmer temperatures and greater moisture gradually
returns. Long range guidance is showing broad agreement of rain
chances at some point Monday-Wednesday, likely in the form of
another frontal passage. That's a ways out, so we'll focus on
the nice weather this weekend instead!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Isolated storms have developed near a cold front in western MN,
with this activity expected to slide southeast over the next
couple of hours. Greater TS coverage is occurring in northern
MN where better forcing exists with shortwave energy dropping
through northern MN. The storm west of RWF will track
along/southeast of the MN River, likely skimming past RWF and
MKT to the south. Storms in northern MN will drop southeast
toward western WI, leading to increased TS threat for RNH/EAU
closer to 6z. MSP/STC look to be between these two areas of
enhanced storms. As these storms diminish overnight, stratus/fog
is expected to develop closer to DLH near what will be a
weakening surface low. Main question with this is how far south
does the stratus extend. RAP soundings would support stratus
getting as far south as MSP, though when looking at the range of
hi-res models, it's really western WI (RNH/EAU) that stands out
for having an IFR/MVFR stratus threat. Once any stratus mixes
out Friday morning, the rest of the Friday will be uneventful.

KMSP...Kept the prob30 for TS in the 2z to 5z window, though
current trends would suggest MSP will miss out on yet another
rainfall opportunity with this front, with storms going north
and south of the metro. For stratus tonight, current
expectations is it will remain north of the metro, closer to the
remnants of the surface low.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late night. Wind S 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
128 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
211830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
128 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. The strongest
storms could contain large hail & damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
810 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     Hail             1 ENE Westport          45.72N 95.15W
08/20/2026  M1.00 Inch       Pope               MN   Law Enforcement

&&

tdk

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