Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
611 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday night.
  Best chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is this
  evening, focused across western Minnesota.

- Quiet weather returns for the second half of the week with
  near-normal temperatures and only low rain chances Thursday
  into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Satellite imagery depicts clear skies across most of southern
MN this afternoon with a growing CU field across WI and central
MN. An ACCAS field has been present much of the day across west
central MN and a few showers have recently developed between
Morris and Alexandria. The low levels are quite dry with dew
points in the 50s and low 60s, but some increase is expected
this evening as richer moisture over the Dakotas slides east.
Scattered thunderstorms should develop this evening along a cold
front across western MN. Sufficient instability (2000-3000
J/kg) from the increased low level moisture and 45-50 kts of
speed shear will bring the potential for splitting supercells
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms should
weaken late this evening and overnight as storms progress east.
Another round of showers and storms is possible late tonight and
early Tuesday, especially south of I-94, as a second short wave
passes through. Depending on early day convection, a third
round is possible late Tuesday afternoon primarily across
southern/eastern MN into WI. This round is of low confidence,
but a weak front in the presence of sufficient instability and
shear will bring a low risk of severe storms during peak diurnal
heating.

West northwest flow aloft will prevail into early next week
thanks to the ridge parked over the southern Rockies. Multiple
disturbances embedded within the flow will bring periodic low
chances for showers and storms but confidence in specifics
beyond early Tuesday is low. In the absence of any precipitation,
conditions will continue to be pleasant with temperatures near
normal. Unfortunately, the prospects of widespread soaking
rainfall is very low for at least the rest of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Overall VFR conditions over this period. There will be some
periods of isolated to scattered thunderstorms with category
reductions to mainly MVFR and maybe IFR as they pass through.
These will be temporary and for less than an hour. The PROB30
groups are for the time range when this reduction could occur.
Storms are currently in west central Minnesota and will spread
south and east this evening. Another round will be possible in
the morning and a third is possible tomorrow evening (this last
round is mostly not in this set of TAFs). Overall winds, outside
of thunderstorms, will be light and under 10 knots.

KMSP...The first chance early this evening has weakened
considerably and is unlikely to cause impacts. The next chance,
and main chance, comes later this evening and is related to the
storms across western Minnesota. Later rounds are less
confident, but kept some mention in the TAFs for timing of
possible impacts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...NDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
312 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

MNZ041>045-047>052-054>061-064>069-073>076-082>084-091-092-182015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-
Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-
Sibley-Carver-Scott-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Watonwan-
Blue Earth-Waseca-Martin-Faribault-
312 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return periodically
through the weekend. A few severe thunderstorms are possible
across southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, the
probability of severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed through Tuesday.

MNZ053-062-063-070-077-078-085-093-WIZ014>016-023>028-182015-
Chisago-Ramsey-Washington-Dakota-Rice-Goodhue-Steele-Freeborn-
Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
312 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...
northwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late. Severe weather is not
anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return periodically
through the weekend. The probability of severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Hail             3 N Bertha              46.30N 95.05W
08/17/2026  M1.00 in         Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

            Piles of hail still in the yard 30 minutes
            later.

&&
TDK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
719 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Hail             10 N Clarissa           46.27N 94.92W
08/17/2026  M1.00 in         Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

            The period of the Hail report was 4 minutes.

&&
TDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
846 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

MNZ049-180215-
Stearns MN-
846 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL STEARNS COUNTY UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Freeport, or 24 miles west of St. Cloud, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  St. Martin, Farming, Richmond, Cold Spring, Rockville and St
  Nicholas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4549 9477 4562 9470 4553 9427 4536 9441
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 289DEG 26KT 4553 9468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
854 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

MNZ065-180230-
Renville MN-
854 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 854 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Olivia, or 19 miles north of Redwood Falls, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Olivia, Bird Island and Hector.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4472 9508 4489 9509 4489 9468 4469 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 269DEG 20KT 4481 9501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1004 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

MNZ043-049-180330-
Stearns MN-Morrison MN-
1004 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON AND
NORTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 1004 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Upsala, or 15 miles southwest of Little Falls, moving southeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Upsala, Elmdale, Bowlus, Holdingford, Opole, Avon, St Wendel, St.
  Stephen and Collegeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4582 9464 4589 9452 4581 9434 4580 9433
      4580 9431 4579 9431 4578 9427 4577 9427
      4576 9426 4575 9427 4574 9426 4573 9424
      4573 9422 4572 9421 4555 9443 4579 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 311DEG 34KT 4581 9457

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NDC