Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
658 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An arriving cold front will produce isolated to scattered
  showers and thunderstorms for mainly southern-eastern MN
  into western WI this afternoon.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon,
  with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

- The next best chances for rain come Saturday night and Monday
  morning, then mostly dry conditions are expected for next
  week.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values into the
  middle of next week, then drop below normal late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Other than passing high clouds and elevated wildfire smoke,
mainly clear skies are displayed on satellite imagery this
morning. Patchy fog is showing up just south of the IA/MN border
and into far SE MN, but fog is not expected to be an issue for
the WFO MPX coverage area this morning. What is of concern is
the approaching cold front currently draped over NW MN,
emanating from a 999mb surface low south of Hudson Bay. This
system is underneath a broad central NOAM trough, which is
forecast to shove a digging axis around the base of the broad
trough, sweeping through the Dakotas and Upper Midwest later
today. Not a whole lot of moisture is associated with the
anticipated frontal passage later today, thus limiting overall
instability to potentially 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE. That said,
bulk shear of around 35kt pushing through the area in
conjunction with the frontal dynamics, along with favorable
early-mid afternoon diurnal timing, will allow for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. The focus
areas look to be far southern and eastern MN into western WI.
Should lapse rates be realized in the 7-8 deg C/km rates, as has
been advertised the past 24-48hrs for today, then along with
the mid-level stronger winds, a few storms could produce large
hail and damaging winds. SPC maintains the Marginal (Level 1 of
5) risk for eastern portions of our coverage area so the bottom
line is that there is a non-zero risk for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon, even despite the overall smaller PoPs and meager
expected coverage of storms today.

The cold front will slide into WI by this evening then into the
central Great Lakes tonight, allowing for any and all precip to
be out of our coverage area by sunset. High pressure will then
prevail tonight through all day Saturday. A developing front
over northern MN and the Dakotas looks to slide southward
through our area Saturday night, linking up with a low pressure
system shifting eastward from the Plains into the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley Saturday night. Additional
showers/thunderstorms look likely near the I-90 corridor portion
of MN Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A few
thunderstorms are possible but the better storm coverage and
strength will be in IA and points south. Similarly, another
round of showers/thunderstorms looks likely for far southern
portions of our coverage area Sunday night into Monday morning
along the same stalled frontal boundary. Again, better storm
coverage/strength will be south and southeast of the WFO MPX
coverage area, and both these systems will also have very little
potential for heavy rain since the dynamics and frontal forcing
will be better to the south of our area.

Once past these weekend chances of rain, a mainly dry period is
expected for much of next week as systems develop over the
Rockies but will have little impetus to reach our portion of the
lower 48, and systems look to phase over the Ohio Valley and
bring precipitation to the Appalachians and points east. Thus,
this scenario will leave us primarily high and dry for most of
next week. Little in the way or airmass change from now until
the middle of next week will mean that elevated wildfire smoke
will still be possible, but this will have little effect to the
surface other than keeping temperatures from getting far away
from normal values. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to mid
80s from the end of this week into the middle of next week.
Finally by the end of next week, a more pronounced eastern NOAM
trough with a Four Corners ridge pattern looks to develop, which
will make for solid NW flow aloft for the Upper Midwest. This
will make a pathway for cooler central Canadian air to spread
southward into our area, thus dropping highs back to the 70s
area-wide and lows to the 50s area-wide for the latter portion
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions for all sites to start the 07/12z TAF
set, although some IFR low ceilings are impacting AXN while
RA/TSRA are encroaching upon RWF. A cold front continues to
make progress eastward from NW MN this morning and will sweep
southeastward across MN/WI through the next 24 hrs. A few
clusters of TSRA are moving into Western MN this morning,
potentially impacting RWF. Overall, the morning activity is
expected to run into more stable air, allowing diurnal impacts
later this afternoon to blend with the frontal dynamics to
spark isolated-scattered SHRA/TSRA for mainly southern-eastern
MN into western WI. Still some timing/placement disagreements
among the CAMs but sufficient agreement exists to allow for a
TEMPOs at AXN-RWF with PROB30 groups at MKT-MSP-RNH-EAU this
afternoon. The frontal passage will also result in a wind shift
from SW to NW, possibly a little breezy/gusty behind the front
for a few hours before winds settle down later this evening.

KMSP...Only wrinkle in this forecast cycle is the continued
possibility for early-mid afternoon TSRA with the frontal
passage. Not a great chance, but not one that can go unmentioned
either, so have maintained the PROB30. Otherwise, a wind shift
is expected from this morning into this evening with the frontal
passage, but speeds are expected to remain only around 10kts or
less throughout this duration.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming N.
MON...Chc A.M. MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts or less.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
402 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
080900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
402 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead
of a cold front Friday afternoon, mainly over southern and eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin. A few storms may be severe, with
the main hazards being damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over
far southern Minnesota Saturday night and again early Monday
morning. While no severe storms are expected Saturday night, a
few storms may be severe early Monday morning, with the main
hazards being damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and again
possibly early Monday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1112 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MNZ059-066>068-071645-
McLeod MN-Wright MN-Sibley MN-Carver MN-
1112 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT...
MCLEOD...CARVER AND NORTHEASTERN SIBLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

At 1112 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Cokato to over Buffalo Lake, or
extending from 16 miles west of Buffalo to 14 miles southwest of
Hutchinson, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Hutchinson, Waconia, Glencoe, Delano, Watertown, Norwood Young
  America, Montrose, Cokato, Winsted, Arlington, Howard Lake, Mayer,
  Lester Prairie, Cologne, Silver Lake, Brownton, Stewart, Green
  Isle, Waverly and Hollywood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4498 9450 4498 9426 4517 9425 4504 9377
      4464 9377 4463 9379 4463 9382 4462 9384
      4463 9384 4462 9385 4462 9386 4461 9385
      4461 9388 4459 9390 4457 9390 4457 9389
      4455 9390 4472 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 298DEG 39KT 4513 9418 4489 9419 4477 9461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ETA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1127 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 AM     Hail             5 E Hanska              44.15N 94.39W
08/07/2026  E1.00 Inch       Brown              MN   Trained Spotter

&&

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 AM     Hail             1 NW St. Cloud          45.57N 94.19W
08/07/2026  M1.00 Inch       Stearns            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     Hail             1 S Blue Earth          43.63N 94.10W
08/07/2026  M1.00 Inch       Faribault          MN   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported quarter size hail
            in Blue Earth, MN.

&&

LPR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1147 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Plato             44.76N 94.08W
08/07/2026  M58 MPH          McLeod             MN   Public

            Measured at KGYL.

&&

mpg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MNZ060-067>069-071730-
Hennepin MN-Sibley MN-Scott MN-Carver MN-
1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CARVER...NORTHEASTERN SIBLEY...
SCOTT AND HENNEPIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1149 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cologne, or 28 miles south of Buffalo, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Edina, Shakopee, Savage, Chaska,
  Chanhassen, Prior Lake, Waconia, Victoria, New Prague, Belle
  Plaine, Jordan, Carver, Norwood Young America, Mayer, Cologne and
  Elko New Market.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4472 9401 4477 9401 4490 9389 4488 9334
      4475 9333 4472 9333 4454 9331 4454 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 279DEG 34KT 4478 9381

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ETA