Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with gusty winds expected as a cold front moves
  through this morning.

- Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s today and Wednesday
  followed by a climb back into the 80s through the weekend.

- The weekend may feature precipitation chances, however
  considerable uncertainty exists at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT FEW DAYS...The main weather feature of
interest is a cold front advancing eastward across the area early
this morning. The front has produced scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across western and central MN. Occasional wind gusts
between 35-45mph have been observed with the frontal passage as
winds shift out of the northwest. As expected, the broken line of
showers and thunderstorms has weakened with eastward movement, which
is forecast to continue this morning. We'll keep scattered shower
chances around through the first couple of hours after daybreak
across southeastern MN and western WI. A chance of showers remains
along the MN/IA border this afternoon as the front moves south.
Cooler, more comfortable air arrives as a region of high pressure
and drier weather builds into the Upper Midwest. Afternoon highs run
below normal, in the 70s, the next couple of days.

WARMING UP LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...Beginning Thursday
highs will return to the lower 80s and continue warming through the
weekend. However, the degree of warmth is somewhat uncertain due to
the upper-level pattern. By Friday, the Upper Midwest will be
positioned within a channel of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft,
located between an upper-low over central Canada and an expansive
ridge over the desert southwest. Guidance brings a cold front
through the region Friday, which may produce scattered precipitation
chances. As the weekend progresses, the northwesterly flow pattern
will become more westerly/zonal around the ridge, which may support
additional precipitation chances, though confidence in timing and
coverage is low at this time. This is because there are differences
across the ensemble membership with regards to the flattening of the
ridge and northward expansion of mid-level warm air over the
weekend. For now, we'll roll with highs in the mid 80s Saturday &
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A cold front is moving across central Minnesota early this
morning. The wind shift has been a little quicker than forecast,
so TAFs have been updated to reflect this. KAXN and KRWF may
continue to see gusts up to 25-30kts for the next few hours
before trending down. Showers and storms appear to be falling
apart in our area with the more persistent convection across
northeast Minnesota and South Dakota. Did some adjusting of
TEMPO/PROB30s through this morning with MVFR cigs/vis possible.

Most of the period will be VFR with mid and high clouds sticking
around through much of the day Tuesday. Some models were
suggesting that behind the cold front, some smoke could make it
to the surface, but so far, that doesn't seem to be happening so
have left it out of any TAFs. Wind speeds continue to diminish
into this evening and go more westerly by the end of the period.

KMSP...Decided to remove prevailing MVFR conditions, but kept
the PROB30 for TSRA. This is probably overdone, but since it was
already in and has been for several issuances, decided to leave
it be. Timing remains sometime between 08z-11z. Northwest winds
around 10kts will diminish to around 5kts during the evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind VRB to SW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Strus/OEB
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
245 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
050745-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
245 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
350 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

MNZ091>093-040930-
Freeborn MN-Martin MN-Faribault MN-
350 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FARIBAULT...WESTERN FREEBORN AND
EASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

At 350 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Frost, or 27 miles east of Fairmont, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Albert Lea, Blue Earth, Wells, Winnebago, Truman, Minnesota Lake,
  Elmore, Alden, Emmons, Bricelyn, Hartland, Freeborn, Mansfield,
  Easton, Frost, Delavan, Twin Lakes, Conger, Kiester and Granada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9437 4384 9444 4385 9430 4385 9340
      4350 9338
TIME...MOT...LOC 0849Z 246DEG 24KT 4364 9393

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Strus/OEB