Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
203 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A corridor of heavy rain remains on track to impact the MN River
Valley in SW Minnesota, starting this evening and continuing
overnight.

- 1-2" inches with localized 4+" of heavy rain expected with
localized flooding possible, especially in low-lying areas.

- Very pleasant this weekend, with below normal temps, and mostly
sunny skies.

- Hazy/smoky skies continue at times, but the chance for surface
  smoke and air quality impacts appear low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

We are basically in a holding pattern until our "main event" arrives
later this evening and tonight. Current satellite features a mix of
patchy upper-level cirrus draped and banded diurnal cu across
eastern MN and western WI while widespread stratus moves in
from the Dakotas. Temperatures range in the mid-80s and are
expected to top out near 90 degrees this afternoon. Parts of
southern and southwestern MN will be slightly cooler as cloud
cover in those regions is a bit more prevalent. Haze on the
horizon remains in place as elevated wildfire smoke continues to
linger over the northern plains. It is expected though that the
content of smoke decreases as we head into the weekend.

We continue to monitor the forward progress of a stacked low
pressure system which will move eastward tonight into Friday. This
system continues to be advertised as a sufficient rain maker thanks
to a deep moisture profile currently in place. It is expected
as we progress into this evening, the pressure gradient from the
low will tighten and generate widespread heavy rainfall. At
least during the late afternoon/early evening hours, severe
thunderstorms are possible however, but higher confidence for
any severe storms to occur is mainly over SD/NE. There is a
potential that a storm or two early this afternoon crosses our
western MN border and produces a damaging wind gust or two
before we transition to strictly a heavy rain threat.

As for forecasted amounts, confidence continues to hone in on a
swath of QPF between 1-2" with localized 4+" of rain along and south
of the MN River Valley and southwestern MN. Latest HREF 24-hr LPMM
does try and cling onto rainfall amounts near 1" as far north as I-
94 however, given the continued trends amongst most HREF membership
and other hi-res guidance, the more realistic amount for eastern MN
(incl. the TC Metro) are closer to a few tenths of an inch at most.
Similar to snowfall events here, the gradient at which the highest
rainfall amounts are found will be sharp. This system will be slow
moving and thus allow for areas to observe prolonged heavy rainfall,
therefore localized flooding/ponding in low-lying areas will be
possible. At this time, it isn't until late Friday afternoon
until precip clears. Aside from the rainfall, it will feel much
cooler as temps will struggle to get out of the low to mid-70s.

Once this system passes, upper-level ridging will take hold over the
northern plains. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid
80s and lows in 50s to lower 60s just in time for the weekend. As we
enter into early next week, another upper-level wave will track
across the Int'l border. This likely looks to produce another shot
of rain/storms across northern MN but still some time left to
determine the southern extent. Temperatures for the remainder of the
period will range at or just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Main question this period is when does precip arrive. Antecedent
airmass over MN is dry, so we did delay precip onset a few
hours across the board. Rain will for sure impact RWF/MKT this
period. AXN/STC/MSP should see rain, but it looks lighter at
these locations and also looks to lack TS. Given the dry east
low-level flow we're expecting, did keep cigs VFR for all but
RWF/MKT, where the heavier rain and deeper moisture will allow
cigs to drop lower at those sites.

KMSP...Did remove TS mention from MSP, with HREF thunder probs
remaining SW of MSP, with the NBM keeping TS probabilities out
of the Twin Cities as well. This just looks like a multi-hour
light rain event.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind ESE 5 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy/EP
AVIATION...MPG

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