Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1249 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke continues to linger across far eastern Minnesota and
  Wisconsin into Monday. See Air Quality Alert for more
  information.

- Thunderstorms likely tonight and early Monday. A few storms
  may be strong or severe.

- A short period of hazardous heat and humidity Monday afternoon
  before turning cooler for midweek.

- Hot temperatures return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Visibilities are improving slowly this afternoon as surface smoke
density decreases. The worst visibility remaining is Eau Claire
with less than 3 miles. The smokey haze will continue through
tonight as the reservoir of smoke continues to drift to the
north and east around high pressure centered on the Great Lakes.
The smoke will primarily impact far eastern MN and WI where an
Air Quality Alert is in effect through Monday morning.

The atmosphere is stable this afternoon, but low level moisture
is increasing across the eastern Dakotas. An upper trough will
approach tonight and moisture advection will spread east.
Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
Dakotas this evening. As the base of the trough begins to
arrive, the mid level jet will strengthen to 50+ kts resulting
in more than enough bulk shear. Steep lapse rates will work east
across the Plains overnight. An increasing LLJ will feed the
clusters/MCS as it continues southeast. CAMs remain supportive
of this activity tracking across central and eastern Minnesota
into western Wisconsin late tonight and early Monday morning.
The main severe risk is damaging wind. The degree of this threat
will depend on the strength of capping and whether any organized
cold pools can develop. There is a level 1 of 5 risk for the
entire CWA.

The morning activity should clear to the southeast early enough
to allow recovery to occur throughout the day. The surface cold
front will be located from northwest WI to southwest MN around
midday. Dew point pooling with the front and quick heating
following the morning storms as a thermal ridge overspreads the
region will bring a short period of hazardous heat during the
afternoon. Dew points may rise into the upper 70s across
southern MN, bringing heat indices to the 100-105 degree range.
Farther north with the earlier passage of the cold front, dew
points will peak early afternoon before drier air follows.
Thermal ridging will remain in place through the afternoon, and
given better boundary layer mixing behind the front, temperatures
will rise more easily. Therefore, heat indices in the metro
area may peak early afternoon, then hold steady or slowly fall
for the rest of the afternoon while air temperatures rise into
the low to mid 90s. As for thunderstorm redevelopment later in
the day, the front should clear most of the CWA before
initiation occurs. There is a small chance a few storms fire in
a corridor from Albert Lea to Rice Lake and Eau Claire late
afternoon, but the better bet is across IA into central WI.

Cooler and less humid air returns by midweek. Highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s or 60s will bring much
needed relief from the recent heat. Ridging will return to the
central U.S. next weekend. The Upper Midwest will be on the
northern periphery this time instead of directly beneath it, so
this may begin a more active convective pattern heading into
next week. There will be some very hot air over the Plains that
should occasionally move in. Highs by Sunday may be solidly in
the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Confidence has decreased for overall storm coverage early this
morning. We have had just one cluster of storms that's now
moving into west-central MN with little additional development
elsewhere. This means our chances for any TSRA activity over the
next few hours is mainly just tied to this one cell. There is
still a capable environment for more development this morning,
with the most likely area for this now shifting closer to the
MN/WI state line. With these latest trends, we have adjusted all
of the MN TAFs down to prob30s with all of the WI sites at
tempos for TSRA. The less storms we have during the early
morning hours, the better chance we will have for more
additional development during the mid-late morning in MN. It's a
scenario where until the environment is tapped into, there will
be a lingering chance for storms.

Winds increase out of the northwest tomorrow afternoon behind
the passing front, with gusts up to 30 kts in some spots. There
may be impacts from wildfire smoke behind the front as well, but
confidence is low on how dense the smoke will be.

KMSP...Adjusted our tempo group to a prob30 to show the
decreasing confidence for storms during the morning rush hour.
It is looking more likely that we will not have an incoming line
of storms tonight, and our primary chance for TSRA will be tied
to any additional development during the early morning. There is
a scenario where KMSP does not see any storms during the early
morning, which would increase the risk for storms during the
late morning and early afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N/NW 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for
     Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-
     Washington.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Martin-
     Nicollet-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
336 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

MNZ041>045-047>051-054>059-064>067-073>075-082-091-202045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Wright-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-Brown-
Nicollet-Watonwan-Martin-
336 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely late tonight. There is a level 1 out of
5 threat for severe storms capable of wind damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot and humid air will be in place Monday. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for parts of south central and east central Minnesota
Monday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed late tonight.

MNZ052-053-060>063-068>070-076>078-083>085-092-093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-202045-
Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-
Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Faribault-
Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-
Eau Claire-
336 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...
northwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely late tonight. There is a level 1 out of
5 threat for severe storms capable of wind damage.

An Air Quality Alert is in effect due to wildfire smoke.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot and humid air will be in place Monday. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for parts of south central and east central Minnesota
Monday afternoon.

A few thunderstorms may redevelop late Monday afternoon across far
southern Minnesota into parts of west central Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed late tonight.

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
117 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

MNZ055-056-200645-
Swift MN-Chippewa MN-
117 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND
WESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 117 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Oliver, or 22 miles south of Morris, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Lake Oliver, Appleton Airport, Appleton, Holloway, Milan, Danvers,
  Clontarf, Hagen, Big Bend City, Benson Airport, Benson and Lake
  Hassel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4515 9604 4516 9605 4516 9606 4517 9609
      4518 9610 4524 9610 4524 9612 4541 9612
      4541 9580 4539 9554 4501 9577 4513 9602
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 296DEG 37KT 4530 9607

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
130 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NE Appleton           45.22N 96.00W
07/20/2026  M56 MPH          Swift              MN   AWOS

            AWOS station KAQP Appleton AP.

&&

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
215 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

MNZ056>058-064-065-073-200745-
Meeker MN-Yellow Medicine MN-Renville MN-Chippewa MN-Kandiyohi MN-
Redwood MN-
215 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN KANDIYOHI...
SOUTHWESTERN MEEKER...EAST CENTRAL CHIPPEWA...NORTHEASTERN REDWOOD...
RENVILLE AND EAST CENTRAL YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM
CDT...

At 215 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from over Willmar to 5 miles southeast of
Sacred Heart, or extending from over Willmar to 15 miles northwest of
Redwood Falls, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Pennock, Raymond, Sacred Heart, Prinsburg, Willmar, Renville, Svea,
  Danube, Kandiyohi, Blomkest, Delhi, Olivia, Lake Lillian, Redwood
  Falls, Atwater, Bird Island, Thorpe, Morton, Cosmos and Franklin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4467 9549 4494 9535 4515 9527 4515 9525
      4522 9525 4524 9524 4508 9457 4477 9474
      4449 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 290DEG 37KT 4512 9509 4490 9522 4471 9531

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
245 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

MNZ041-047-048-200815-
Stevens MN-Pope MN-Douglas MN-
245 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT STEVENS...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS
AND NORTHWESTERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 245 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles northwest of Chokio, or 25 miles northwest of Morris, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Morris, Kensington, Donnelly, Fish Lake, Alberta and Morris
  Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4560 9576 4548 9582 4561 9625 4576 9625
      4576 9576 4583 9576 4581 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0745Z 286DEG 33KT 4577 9634

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NDC